East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

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dwg71
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#101 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:49 pm

Waves coming off the coast have a 1 in 10 chance of developing, this could be one to develop, then again the chances are slim.
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MiamiensisWx

#102 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:50 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Probably die in SAL b/c of its high latitude.


dwg71 wrote:Waves coming off the coast have a 1 in 10 chance of developing, this could be one to develop, then again the chances are slim.


I agree. If the SAL holds, it will probably lose it's convection once it leaves the coast. A lot of waves which many people hopefully seemingly "wishcasted" to develop have gone kaput once they entered Atlantic waters.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#103 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:51 pm

I would not be suprized if it died like the last one. But we shall see.
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Frank2
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#104 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:12 pm

Here's the latest IR Meteosat loop, and it appears that this disturbance is already moving NW. Apparently there is a trough along the west coast of Africa - many factors affecting the second half of the season.

Click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html to view.

Frank

P.S. Today's 12Z frame was blank, so you'll need to eliminate it by clicking on one of the green blocks at the top of the page (depending on when you read this).
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#105 Postby weatherwoman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:26 pm

looks like we might get some action now
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#106 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:29 pm

When a wave comes off the coast of Africa it dies back when it hits water. But then if it can stay together you may have something to talk about a few days later.
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#107 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:31 pm

It's such a shame that they do (even though one of them is bound to hit someone)

Don't know about this one though, it could pull through in decent shape.
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#108 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:24 pm

wave looks really good

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15
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#109 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:26 pm

*sigh* and dont they all. Until the stupid SAL comes. Wouldnt it be cool if we could somehow moisten the environment or turn the Sahara into a rainforest.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#110 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:28 pm

Scorpion wrote:*sigh* and dont they all. Until the stupid SAL comes. Wouldnt it be cool if we could somehow moisten the environment or turn the Sahara into a rainforest.



I agree. I hate the Desert/Sahara. I heard that it was once a rainforest. I hope it turns back into one soon.
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#111 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:29 pm

well this one already has a strong low associated with it...and even steve lyons has been talking about it for the past few days and most of the computer models develop it...so i think this one will develop
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#112 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:30 pm

This one could be a biggie
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#113 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:30 pm

We need 3 more before the months out or we will fall behind 1995.
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#114 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:04 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:We need 3 more before the months out or we will fall behind 1995.
We need 3 in the next 8 days...Luis formed 8/27/95. We need J, K, and L by the 26th to keep ahead of pace. Not gonna' happen.
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Scorpion

#115 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:14 pm

However, September 1995 only produced 3 named storms... Marilyn, Noel, and Opal.
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Scorpion

#116 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:16 pm

btw, I have got to say that the wave about to emerge is HUGE. Hopefully it becomes a nice big Cat 4.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#117 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:18 pm

Scorpion wrote:btw, I have got to say that the wave about to emerge is HUGE. Hopefully it becomes a nice big Cat 4.


I agree. Tired of these little naked swirls. :roll:
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#118 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:58 pm

A nice Cat four that will stay off shore.

<RICKY>
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#119 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2005 7:08 pm

A LARGE AREA OF
TSTMS IS ALONG 10W... PROBABLY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER
THE AREA. IT MIGHT BE WORTH A SMALL MENTION THAT THERE IS
UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OF SOME SORT OF ATTEMPTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE WAVE AFTER IT LEAVES THE COAST IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

The above remarks from discussion at 8 PM.Interesting that TPC mentions a wave that still is inside Africa as a candidate for tropical cyclone development.
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#120 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2005 7:32 pm

Image

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html

A panoramic full disk view of Africa where you can see the bomb about to emerge and another on the center of that continent.
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