TD 10...Back Again

[CDO]

It's hard to look at that SAL image without picturing dhweather's SAL devil.

[elysium]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just theopinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k. org. For official informationplease refer to the NHC or NWS products.

I might not be making the correct assumptions.

The trough scheduled to arrive on the east coast is not going to be strong enough to penetrate the ridge. I don't have all the details, but it is clear that the trough is getting strung out as high pressure builds in underneath it. This high will likely bridge with the subtropical ridge, and it appears as though TD 10 will be under a massive high pressure ridge for a very long time, without interruption.

The models should begin to pick up on this very soon, and will begin to forecast TD 10 running WNW in a tightly clustered pattern for the next 7 to 10 days. There is nothing that will turn TD 10 to the north; nothing. It will be under an entrenched high pressure ridge throughout the next 10 days and possibly longer. The waning trough and the powerful building ridge virtually assures that TD 10 will enter the GOM, and do so rather easily at that.

Landfall can take place anywhere between the north coast of Cuba and Daytona. If we were forced to narrow it down, unfortunately the Florida Keys looks to be the most probable point of entry into the GOM.

Additionally, TD 10 has never looked better. The experienced observer can quickly summarize that an intensification process is well underway. It is only when you look out and begin to realize that TD 10 will not only not have to contend with a trough, but will also be positioned under a powerful ridge as it travels through the most conducive sst water in the Atlantic, that you quickly understand that TD 10 is absolutely perfectly poised, down to every detail, to become a major hurricane of historical porportions, headed toward Florida's east coast.

Now this might seem unbelievable right now, however, by tomorrow there will be many other posters here posting this very same forecast. If you would kindly hold off on your attack of this forecast for only 12 hrs., you may begin to understand why I am forecasting this event. While as with any forecast this one too may fail to materialize, it is based on very credible data IMHO, and I will gladly share that data with anyone who requests it. If this forecast is disputed by anyone, all that I ask is that you explain in some detail why you think otherwise.

One more thing; this is not a wishcast. I would never take my time to present a forecast if I didn't fully believe that what I was forecasting to be based on my strong belief. While I, like many of you, have a strong interest in tropical weather and hurricane formation in the positive sense, if TD 10 didn't pose a significant threat, I would attempt to be the first to tell you, if no one else was doing so. Most of the posters here are downplaying TD 10, and minimalizing it, and that's fine. If everyone were forecasting TD 10 to become a major hurricane heading for the Florida east coast, I wouldn't be. i would be looking for reasons for it to recurve, but if I didn't find those reasons, I would never, ever forecast such.

My forecasts always cut across the grain, but are worthy IMO. And I will say it again; TD 10 poses a major hurricane threat to the east coast of Florida, and I am very sure about this.

FWIW, I happen to like the Keys....a lot. You had better tell me this forecast is B.S. I don't want a hurricane hitting the Keys. Period. Flame away.

[dwg71]

Is that a joke or something??

[dwg71]

We have an open wave approaching 65W and your calling for a major hurricane landfall???

[Sanibel]

Discussion of the African SAL is off-topic to this thread. But it is significant enough to start a new thread about it because it is really diving into the ITCZ and probably crashing Dr Gray as we speak.

Sanibel
Well you you thinking?

The ULL/trough Low to TD10's NW is stronger than TD10 itself. Any time a weak wave is moving into a hostile synoptic containing a stronger feature than itself it doesn't look too promising. The system only has a 33% chance at best. However, we have to wait to make sure this isn't just a down pulse.

[storms in NC]

Is that a joke or something??

It's got be LOL

[jabber]

elysium

"If this forecast is disputed by anyone, all that I ask is that you explain in some detail why you think otherwise."

Well, for starters recon found nada, no circulation, zip, zero --- nothing is spining. Pressures are high, very little convection, shear is still very much a factor.... do I need to go on.

[storms in NC]

Discussion of the African SAL is off-topic to this thread. But it is significant enough to start a new thread about it because it is really diving into the ITCZ and probably crashing Dr Gray as we speak.

Sanibel
Well you you thinking?

The ULL/trough Low to TD10's NW is stronger than TD10 itself. Any time a weak wave is moving into a hostile synoptic containing a stronger feature than itself it doesn't look too promising. The system only has a 33% chance at best. However, we have to wait to make sure this isn't just a down pulse.

Thank you Sanibel.

[Typhoon_Willie]

It looks like there is some circulation near 19 north 60 west though on the visible. May be mid level circulation at best. Any thoughts?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[x-y-no]

Additionally, TD 10 has never looked better.

[storms in NC]

It looks like there is some circulation near 19 north 60 west though on the visible. May be mid level circulation at best. Any thoughts?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Wave now

[Sanibel]

I don't have any visible Floater loops because of "AO-HELL" (AOL).

However, my zoom of the GHCC still shows me a possible center relocation north and towards the center. This is exactly the type of weak system and synoptic where center jumps occur. A weak sheared system hitting a strong ULL border is one that will do this.

From a glance I'll go for refire in the deeper convection...

[Opal storm]

We have an open wave approaching 65W and your calling for a major hurricane landfall???

and he said he's not -removed- LOL

[storms in NC]

I don't have any visible Floater loops because of "AO-HELL" (AOL).

However, my zoom of the GHCC still shows me a possible center relocation north and towards the center. This is exactly the type of weak system and synoptic where center jumps occur. A weak sheared system hitting a strong ULL border is one that will do this.

From a glance I'll go for refire in the deeper convection...

That might be the reason they are going to St. Croix to lay over there. Just a tthought

[jabber]

It looks like there is some circulation near 19 north 60 west though on the visible. May be mid level circulation at best. Any thoughts?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Wave now

I can kinda see some rotation. It appears (to my untrained eyes) to be a mid level spin. Who knows...

[dwg71]

It looks like there is some circulation near 19 north 60 west though on the visible. May be mid level circulation at best. Any thoughts?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Wave now

I can kinda see some rotaion. It appears (to my untrained eyes) to be a mid level spin. Who knows...

The recon knows...there is not any LLC circulation

[weatherwoman]

i posted a subject about -removed- yesterday, I see this is what people call -removed-, get a life I can not beieve you would even say such a thing about a major hurricane and we dont even have a llc

[The Big Dog]

One more thing; this is not a wishcast.

In my experience, if you have to say it... well... you know the rest.

[Air Force Met]

Additionally, TD 10 has never looked better.

Well I guess the question is...have you been looking? Because you certainlyhaven't been looking at 10 to make that statement. Yesterday there was a distinct broad low...and good convection. Today it looks like a big mess.

Didn't you learn your lesson last time about making forecasts?

[Blown Away]

It looks like there is some circulation near 19 north 60 west though on the visible. May be mid level circulation at best. Any thoughts?

I think if recon went out 12 hours from now they will find a LLC. I see it, and w/ each frame it looks a little better. Recon was just a bit early probably by a few hours. It has a good general rotation and shear has lessoned. IMO