Extratropical Irene Advisories
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weatherwoman
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050817 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050817 1800 050818 0600 050818 1800 050819 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 37.7N 57.3W 40.3N 52.8W 44.6N 46.5W 50.0N 38.5W
BAMM 37.7N 57.3W 40.0N 53.4W 43.1N 47.5W 46.7N 40.0W
A98E 37.7N 57.3W 39.0N 54.0W 42.4N 47.2W 45.0N 39.7W
LBAR 37.7N 57.3W 39.5N 53.8W 43.0N 49.6W 48.8N 44.2W
SHIP 60KTS 57KTS 53KTS 53KTS
DSHP 60KTS 57KTS 53KTS 53KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050819 1800 050820 1800 050821 1800 050822 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 55.6N 29.4W 63.6N 14.7W 70.9N 6.0W 75.2N 4.8E
BAMM 50.6N 32.5W 57.3N 18.2W 63.5N 9.5W 69.2N 4.5W
A98E 43.4N 34.6W 43.5N 26.0W 53.4N 12.8W 58.9N 1.2E
LBAR 55.6N 33.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 47KTS 38KTS 27KTS
DSHP 54KTS 47KTS 38KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 37.7N LONCUR = 57.3W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 36.5N LONM12 = 60.6W DIRM12 = 77DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 36.5N LONM24 = 62.0W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 50NM
Downgraded to a tropical storm.Adios Irene until 2011.
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HURAKAN
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Tropical Storm Irene Advisory Number 53
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 17, 2005
...Irene weakens to a tropical storm and accelerates to the
northeast...
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of tropical storm Irene was located
near latitude 38.5 north...longitude 56.3 west or about 590
miles... 950 km...south-southwest of Cape Race Newfoundland.
Irene is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and
a further increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24
hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Irene is expected to begin losing tropical characteristics on
Thursday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
...220 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...38.5 N... 56.3 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 21 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Cobb/Pasch
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 17, 2005
...Irene weakens to a tropical storm and accelerates to the
northeast...
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of tropical storm Irene was located
near latitude 38.5 north...longitude 56.3 west or about 590
miles... 950 km...south-southwest of Cape Race Newfoundland.
Irene is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and
a further increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24
hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Irene is expected to begin losing tropical characteristics on
Thursday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
...220 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...38.5 N... 56.3 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 21 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Cobb/Pasch
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HURAKAN
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Tropical Storm Irene Discussion Number 53
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2005
the strong westerly shear has taken its toll on Irene and the
system is no longer a hurricane. An average of Dvorak numbers from
the three satellite agencies also supports lowering the intensity
to 60 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate has picked up to 050/18...indicating
that the acceleration of the system continues. Water vapor imagery
shows a vigorous shortwave trough extending from the Canadian
Maritimes to 28n68w that is moving rapidly toward Irene. As this
shortwave trough and associated surface front sweeps over Irene
from the west...the storm is expected to accelerate further
to the northeast in response to the increasing southwesterly
steering flow. Irene is forecast to move over sharply lower SSTs
within 12 hours...north of 41n latitude. The cyclone should quickly
decouple over the cooler waters and become an extratropical storm
by 24 hours...or sooner...as indicated by the FSU cyclone phase
analysis web Page. Beyond 24 hours...extratropical Irene should
continue accelerating in the mid-latitude westerlies and race
off to the northeast toward Greenland and Iceland. The official
track is virtually identical to the previous forecast and is good
agreement with the consensus of the tightly packed NHC model
guidance.
The initial 12 foot sea radii have been expanded out to
200 nm in the NE quadrant based on a ship report from vessel
elvx2.
Forecaster Cobb/Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/2100z 38.5n 56.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 41.1n 52.9w 55 kt
24hr VT 18/1800z 47.1n 46.9w 50 kt...extratropical
36hr VT 19/0600z 55.5n 40.5w 50 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 19/1800z...absorbed
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2005
the strong westerly shear has taken its toll on Irene and the
system is no longer a hurricane. An average of Dvorak numbers from
the three satellite agencies also supports lowering the intensity
to 60 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate has picked up to 050/18...indicating
that the acceleration of the system continues. Water vapor imagery
shows a vigorous shortwave trough extending from the Canadian
Maritimes to 28n68w that is moving rapidly toward Irene. As this
shortwave trough and associated surface front sweeps over Irene
from the west...the storm is expected to accelerate further
to the northeast in response to the increasing southwesterly
steering flow. Irene is forecast to move over sharply lower SSTs
within 12 hours...north of 41n latitude. The cyclone should quickly
decouple over the cooler waters and become an extratropical storm
by 24 hours...or sooner...as indicated by the FSU cyclone phase
analysis web Page. Beyond 24 hours...extratropical Irene should
continue accelerating in the mid-latitude westerlies and race
off to the northeast toward Greenland and Iceland. The official
track is virtually identical to the previous forecast and is good
agreement with the consensus of the tightly packed NHC model
guidance.
The initial 12 foot sea radii have been expanded out to
200 nm in the NE quadrant based on a ship report from vessel
elvx2.
Forecaster Cobb/Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/2100z 38.5n 56.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 41.1n 52.9w 55 kt
24hr VT 18/1800z 47.1n 46.9w 50 kt...extratropical
36hr VT 19/0600z 55.5n 40.5w 50 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 19/1800z...absorbed
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cycloneye
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TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT MOTION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF IRENE
WAS GREATLY AIDED BY MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS THIS
EVENING. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2225Z INDICATED THAT IRENE HAS BEEN
MOVING AT 060/17...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...AS THE CENTER BEGINS TO DISENGAGE FROM THE STILL STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT
2150Z SHOWED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 60 KT...BUT THAT THE
WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED INWARD. IN PARTICULAR...THE
CIRCULATION IS SHRINKING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS A FRONTAL
ZONE APPROACHES.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST
THINKING...WHICH HAS IRENE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...
THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS ALREADY TAKEN IRENE TOO
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE GFS SHOWS IRENE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL
ZONE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...BUT GIVEN PRESENT TRENDS IT MAY TAKE JUST
A LITTLE LONGER FOR IRENE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 38.8N 54.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 41.9N 50.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 48.0N 44.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 19/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT MOTION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF IRENE
WAS GREATLY AIDED BY MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS THIS
EVENING. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2225Z INDICATED THAT IRENE HAS BEEN
MOVING AT 060/17...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...AS THE CENTER BEGINS TO DISENGAGE FROM THE STILL STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT
2150Z SHOWED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 60 KT...BUT THAT THE
WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED INWARD. IN PARTICULAR...THE
CIRCULATION IS SHRINKING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS A FRONTAL
ZONE APPROACHES.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST
THINKING...WHICH HAS IRENE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...
THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS ALREADY TAKEN IRENE TOO
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE GFS SHOWS IRENE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL
ZONE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...BUT GIVEN PRESENT TRENDS IT MAY TAKE JUST
A LITTLE LONGER FOR IRENE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 38.8N 54.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 41.9N 50.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 48.0N 44.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 19/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTNT44 KNHC 180823
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005
IRENE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THE PAST 6 HOURS
NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS FULLY CAUGHT UP IN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED...I HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/30. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRAPOLATION
FROM SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES BETWEEN 17/21Z
AND 18/02Z. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AT
FORWARD SPEEDS OF 35-40 KT...OR HIGHER...THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID
TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 41.3N 51.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 18/1800Z 46.0N 46.1W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 19/0600Z 54.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
WTNT44 KNHC 180823
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005
IRENE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THE PAST 6 HOURS
NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS FULLY CAUGHT UP IN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED...I HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/30. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRAPOLATION
FROM SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES BETWEEN 17/21Z
AND 18/02Z. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AT
FORWARD SPEEDS OF 35-40 KT...OR HIGHER...THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID
TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 41.3N 51.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 18/1800Z 46.0N 46.1W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 19/0600Z 54.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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P.K.
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I make it 47kts looking at the 48hr Met Office forecast chart for 12am GMT 20/8. (Using a reduction factor of 0.9)
NHC has it as 50kts at 6am on the 19th so that looks about right.
http://217.160.75.104/pics/brack1.gif
NHC has it as 50kts at 6am on the 19th so that looks about right.
http://217.160.75.104/pics/brack1.gif
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
KNHC 181435
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005
...IRENE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT RACES
NORTHEASTWARD...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IRENE IS
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 475 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415 MILES
...665 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...45.0 N... 47.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IRENE. FUTURE INFORMATION...IF ANY...ON THIS SYSTEM MAY
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECASTER PASCH
Last advisorie.See you Irene in 2011.
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005
...IRENE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT RACES
NORTHEASTWARD...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IRENE IS
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 475 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415 MILES
...665 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...45.0 N... 47.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IRENE. FUTURE INFORMATION...IF ANY...ON THIS SYSTEM MAY
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECASTER PASCH
Last advisorie.See you Irene in 2011.
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See ya in 2011 and don't get hit on the way out!
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weatherwoman
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P.K.
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- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
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- Contact:
TS Irene was centred at around 45W 48N at 6pm GMT. I'm not going to calculate the winds from the charts again though. 
http://217.160.75.104/pics/bracka.gif
http://217.160.75.104/pics/bracka.gif
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P.K.
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Team Ragnarok wrote:Judging from that map, it looks like Irene's about to become absorbed.
Certainly looks like it. Here is the 24hr forecast chart: http://217.160.75.104/pics/brack0.gif
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P.K.
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Irene has gone extra-tropical overnight, and is now a 966hPa low around 57N 40W just to the south east of Greenland.
http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif
http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/anabwkna.gif
http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif
http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/anabwkna.gif
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Ex-Irene is now centred at around 64N 38W at 973hPa.
The current Met Office charts show it moving across Iceland and merging with another low giving rather windy condtions across Scotland/Northern Ireland.
http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif
http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/anabwkna.gif
The current Met Office charts show it moving across Iceland and merging with another low giving rather windy condtions across Scotland/Northern Ireland.
http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif
http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/anabwkna.gif
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