TD 10...Back Again

[Sanibel]

On the IR you can see the big round border TD10 has made into the trough ahead of it. This is the system dragging its unfavorable Atlantic airmass along with it...

[dwg71]

Lets look at what websters has to say, i cut an pasted the following from websters.com:

-removed-: (verb) wish.kas.ting - The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just theopinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k. org. For official informationplease refer to the NHC or NWS products.

I might not be making the correct assumptions.

The trough scheduled to arrive on the east coast is not going to be strong enough to penetrate the ridge. I don't have all the details, but it is clear that the trough is getting strung out as high pressure builds in underneath it. This high will likely bridge with the subtropical ridge, and it appears as though TD 10 will be under a massive high pressure ridge for a very long time, without interruption.

The models should begin to pick up on this very soon, and will begin to forecast TD 10 running WNW in a tightly clustered pattern for the next 7 to 10 days. There is nothing that will turn TD 10 to the north; nothing. It will be under an entrenched high pressure ridge throughout the next 10 days and possibly longer. The waning trough and the powerful building ridge virtually assures that TD 10 will enter the GOM, and do so rather easily at that.

Landfall can take place anywhere between the north coast of Cuba and Daytona. If we were forced to narrow it down, unfortunately the Florida Keys looks to be the most probable point of entry into the GOM.

Additionally, TD 10 has never looked better. The experienced observer can quickly summarize that an intensification process is well underway. It is only when you look out and begin to realize that TD 10 will not only not have to contend with a trough, but will also be positioned under a powerful ridge as it travels through the most conducive sst water in the Atlantic, that you quickly understand that TD 10 is absolutely perfectly poised, down to every detail, to become a major hurricane of historical porportions, headed toward Florida's east coast.

Now this might seem unbelievable right now, however, by tomorrow there will be many other posters here posting this very same forecast. If you would kindly hold off on your attack of this forecast for only 12 hrs., you may begin to understand why I am forecasting this event. While as with any forecast this one too may fail to materialize, it is based on very credible data IMHO, and I will gladly share that data with anyone who requests it. If this forecast is disputed by anyone, all that I ask is that you explain in some detail why you think otherwise.

One more thing; this is not a wishcast. I would never take my time to present a forecast if I didn't fully believe that what I was forecasting to be based on my strong belief. While I, like many of you, have a strong interest in tropical weather and hurricane formation in the positive sense, if TD 10 didn't pose a significant threat, I would attempt to be the first to tell you, if no one else was doing so. Most of the posters here are downplaying TD 10, and minimalizing it, and that's fine. If everyone were forecasting TD 10 to become a major hurricane heading for the Florida east coast, I wouldn't be. i would be looking for reasons for it to recurve, but if I didn't find those reasons, I would never, ever forecast such.

My forecasts always cut across the grain, but are worthy IMO. And I will say it again; TD 10 poses a major hurricane threat to the east coast of Florida, and I am very sure about this.

FWIW, I happen to like the Keys....a lot. You had better tell me this forecast is B.S. I don't want a hurricane hitting the Keys. Period. Flame away.

[hicksta]

If this storm does make it into the gulf and keeps in tact just a little, it could be a problem to some people.

[vbhoutex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just theopinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k. org. For official informationplease refer to the NHC or NWS products.

I might not be making the correct assumptions.

I think you are when recon has found only an open wave!!1

The trough scheduled to arrive on the east coast is not going to be strong enough to penetrate the ridge.

I don't have all the details, but it is clear that the trough is getting strung out as high pressure builds in underneath it.

If you don't have the details please explain how you can say this with any certainty.

This high will likely bridge with the subtropical ridge, and it appears as though TD 10 will be under a massive high pressure ridge for a very long time, without interruption.

The models should begin to pick up on this very soon, and will begin to forecast TD 10 running WNW in a tightly clustered pattern for the next 7 to 10 days. There is nothing that will turn TD 10 to the north; nothing. It will be under an entrenched high pressure ridge throughout the next 10 days and possibly longer. The waning trough and the powerful building ridge virtually assures that TD 10 will enter the GOM, and do so rather easily at that.

Landfall can take place anywhere between the north coast of Cuba and Daytona. If we were forced to narrow it down, unfortunately the Florida Keys looks to be the most probable point of entry into the GOM.

Additionally,

TD 10 has never looked better.

As compared to when?

The experienced observer can quickly summarize that an intensification process is well underway.

So please fill us in on your experience. I have plenty of experience looking at the tropics and I don't see it!!

It is only when you look out and begin to realize that TD 10 will not only not have to contend with a trough, but will also be positioned under a powerful ridge as it travels through the most conducive sst water in the Atlantic, that you quickly understand that TD 10 is absolutely perfectly poised, down to every detail, to become a major hurricane of historical porportions, headed toward Florida's east coast.

Now this might seem unbelievable right now, however, by tomorrow there will be many other posters here posting this very same forecast. If you would kindly hold off on your attack of this forecast for only 12 hrs., you may begin to understand why I am forecasting this event.

While as with any forecast this one too may fail to materialize, it is based on very credible data IMHO, and I will gladly share that data with anyone who requests it.

I am requesting it and I am requesting that it be posted here for all to see-NOT YOUR OPINIONS, BUT COLD HARD FACTS TO SUPPORT THE ASSUMPTIONS YOU HAVE MADE SO FAR.

If this forecast is disputed by anyone, all that I ask is that you explain in some detail why you think otherwise.

One more thing; this is not a wishcast. I would never take my time to present a forecast if I didn't fully believe that what I was forecasting to be based on my strong belief. While I, like many of you, have a strong interest in tropical weather and hurricane formation in the positive sense, if TD 10 didn't pose a significant threat, I would attempt to be the first to tell you, if no one else was doing so. Most of the posters here are downplaying TD 10, and minimalizing it, and that's fine. If everyone were forecasting TD 10 to become a major hurricane heading for the Florida east coast, I wouldn't be. i would be looking for reasons for it to recurve, but if I didn't find those reasons, I would never, ever forecast such.

My forecasts always cut across the grain, but are worthy IMO. And I will say it again; TD 10 poses a major hurricane threat to the east coast of Florida, and I am very sure about this.

FWIW, I happen to like the Keys....a lot. You had better tell me this forecast is B.S. I don't want a hurricane hitting the Keys. Period. Flame away.

If you are so confident in this forecast why do you place so many caveats(CYA's) in it?

[superfly]

It looks like there is some circulation near 19 north 60 west though on the visible. May be mid level circulation at best. Any thoughts?

I think if recon went out 12 hours from now they will find a LLC. I see it, and w/ each frame it looks a little better. Recon was just a bit early probably by a few hours. It has a good general rotation and shear has lessoned. IMO

There is still a weak MLC but no LLC.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I was going to say you can zoom in on that loop. It is probably a mid level circulation.

[Sanibel]

GHCC Visible still zoom:


Center is under furthest left convection 'dot'. Dense enough to promise to re-fire later.

[du1st]

GHCC Visible still zoom:


Center is under furthest left convection 'dot'. Dense enough to promise to re-fire later.

what is GHCC?

[The Big Dog]

GHCC Visible still zoom:


Center is under furthest left convection 'dot'. Dense enough to promise to re-fire later.

what is GHCC?

This: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[jabber]

000 ABNT20 KNHC 182055 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2005 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

DONE

[Recurve]

Global Hydrology and Climate Center:

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[jasons2k]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just theopinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k. org. For official informationplease refer to the NHC or NWS products.

I might not be making the correct assumptions.

I think you are when recon has found only an open wave!!1

The trough scheduled to arrive on the east coast is not going to be strong enough to penetrate the ridge.

I don't have all the details, but it is clear that the trough is getting strung out as high pressure builds in underneath it.

If you don't have the details please explain how you can say this with any certainty.

This high will likely bridge with the subtropical ridge, and it appears as though TD 10 will be under a massive high pressure ridge for a very long time, without interruption.

The models should begin to pick up on this very soon, and will begin to forecast TD 10 running WNW in a tightly clustered pattern for the next 7 to 10 days. There is nothing that will turn TD 10 to the north; nothing. It will be under an entrenched high pressure ridge throughout the next 10 days and possibly longer. The waning trough and the powerful building ridge virtually assures that TD 10 will enter the GOM, and do so rather easily at that.

Landfall can take place anywhere between the north coast of Cuba and Daytona. If we were forced to narrow it down, unfortunately the Florida Keys looks to be the most probable point of entry into the GOM.

Additionally,

TD 10 has never looked better.

As compared to when?

The experienced observer can quickly summarize that an intensification process is well underway.

So please fill us in on your experience. I have plenty of experience looking at the tropics and I don't see it!!

It is only when you look out and begin to realize that TD 10 will not only not have to contend with a trough, but will also be positioned under a powerful ridge as it travels through the most conducive sst water in the Atlantic, that you quickly understand that TD 10 is absolutely perfectly poised, down to every detail, to become a major hurricane of historical porportions, headed toward Florida's east coast.

Now this might seem unbelievable right now, however, by tomorrow there will be many other posters here posting this very same forecast. If you would kindly hold off on your attack of this forecast for only 12 hrs., you may begin to understand why I am forecasting this event.

While as with any forecast this one too may fail to materialize, it is based on very credible data IMHO, and I will gladly share that data with anyone who requests it.

I am requesting it and I am requesting that it be posted here for all to see-NOT YOUR OPINIONS, BUT COLD HARD FACTS TO SUPPORT THE ASSUMPTIONS YOU HAVE MADE SO FAR.

If this forecast is disputed by anyone, all that I ask is that you explain in some detail why you think otherwise.

One more thing; this is not a wishcast. I would never take my time to present a forecast if I didn't fully believe that what I was forecasting to be based on my strong belief. While I, like many of you, have a strong interest in tropical weather and hurricane formation in the positive sense, if TD 10 didn't pose a significant threat, I would attempt to be the first to tell you, if no one else was doing so. Most of the posters here are downplaying TD 10, and minimalizing it, and that's fine. If everyone were forecasting TD 10 to become a major hurricane heading for the Florida east coast, I wouldn't be. i would be looking for reasons for it to recurve, but if I didn't find those reasons, I would never, ever forecast such.

My forecasts always cut across the grain, but are worthy IMO. And I will say it again; TD 10 poses a major hurricane threat to the east coast of Florida, and I am very sure about this.

FWIW, I happen to like the Keys....a lot. You had better tell me this forecast is B.S. I don't want a hurricane hitting the Keys. Period. Flame away.

If you are so confident in this forecast why do you place so many caveats(CYA's) in it?

My thoughts exactly!!

And also this quote "If this forecast is disputed by anyone, all that I ask is that you explain in some detail why you think otherwise."

Well here is just a start - aren't you the same person (not you houtex but elysium) 4 days ago that said something like what happens in the next 15 minutes is the most critical time period, and if it held together then it would become a major historical event?? So tell me, what changed between now and then?

[MetroMike]

Looks like we should delete this elongated thread...

[elysium]

This is not a forecast, it is an answer to a question arising from my unofficial forecast above. Please refer to the disclaimer. this is not an official forecast nor is it endorsed by any professional meteorological organization, including storm2k.org. For official info refer to the NHC or the NWS.


In response to the request for data;
The NWS is shifting from a position that it had taken earlier on the possibility of a trough impacting the ridge. Previously, the NWS had forecasted a trough exiting the east coast that would push back the ridge. If that forecast had held up, TD 10 would have needed to slow down in forward speed before rebuilding for reasons kinda too complex to get into. Anyway, now that the NWS is forecasting the trough to be sheared off which will allow the ridge to build in underneath; which is also being forecasted by the NWS; this greatly impacts the future forecast on TD 10. The more credible models will unquestionably shift further to the south or left. Also, TD 10 has never looked better. This system is on the way up, and there will not be a trough to contend with in 4 or 5 days that might have lead to slowing down of forward speed and some weakening. So a complication that had been in the forecast on day 4 and 5 is no longer present.

And look at the GFS. The 96 through 144 hr. scenario depicted in the 12Z-18Z is setting up to take place in 48 through 96 hrs instead. Also just take a look at the trough itself on the satellite imagery. It's already east west oriented. Where is the forecasted positive tilt? Look just underneath the trough. Already you can actually see the high building in underneath. Look at the sub-tropical ridge.

More importantly than all that, for the first time, will you look at TD 10 itself? Forget about all the...well the B.S. Does that look to you like a weak system on the decline? Not only does TD 10 look great, it is very much strengthening. The thing is, this system is poised to begin its period of rapid strengthening sooner, and totally unabated. Never, ever have i seen a more conducive pattern for development. Rarely can a course heading be so predictable as TD 10's WNW heading over the next several days and longer. The Florida east coast is very much under the gun of a major hurricane threat. This will become much more clear to all in the next 24 hrs.

Again, this is not an official forecast endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. This is only my opinion. You need to refer to the NHC and the NWS for official information since this forecast is based on data that may not be sound. This forecast may be very wrong. All other opinions are encouraged to debate this forecast, and I hope that the Florida Keys do not suffer a hurricane. That's what this is shaping up to be, however. Please prove this forecast in error. I hope that it is wrong.

[jasons2k]

This is not a forecast, it is an answer to a question arising from my unofficial forecast above.

Again, this is not an official forecast endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. This is only my opinion. You need to refer to the NHC and the NWS for official information since this forecast is based on data that may not be sound. This forecast may be very wrong.

Those are the only facts in the whole series of posts...

[dwg71]

"This will become much more clear to all in the next 24 hrs."

You said a mouthful there...

[x-y-no]

delusion

n 1: (psychology) an erroneous belief that is held in the face of evidence to the contrary.

Example:

More importantly than all that, for the first time, will you look at TD 10 itself? Forget about all the...well the B.S. Does that look to you like a weak system on the decline? Not only does TD 10 look great, it is very much strengthening. The thing is, this system is poised to begin its period of rapid strengthening sooner, and totally unabated. Never, ever have i seen a more conducive pattern for development.

[jkt21787]

This is not a forecast, it is an answer to a question arising from my unofficial forecast above. Please refer to the disclaimer. this is not an official forecast nor is it endorsed by any professional meteorological organization, including storm2k.org. For official info refer to the NHC or the NWS.


In response to the request for data;
The NWS is shifting from a position that it had taken earlier on the possibility of a trough impacting the ridge. Previously, the NWS had forecasted a trough exiting the east coast that would push back the ridge. If that forecast had held up, TD 10 would have needed to slow down in forward speed before rebuilding for reasons kinda too complex to get into. Anyway, now that the NWS is forecasting the trough to be sheared off which will allow the ridge to build in underneath; which is also being forecasted by the NWS; this greatly impacts the future forecast on TD 10. The more credible models will unquestionably shift further to the south or left. Also, TD 10 has never looked better. This system is on the way up, and there will not be a trough to contend with in 4 or 5 days that might have lead to slowing down of forward speed and some weakening. So a complication that had been in the forecast on day 4 and 5 is no longer present.

And look at the GFS. The 96 through 144 hr. scenario depicted in the 12Z-18Z is setting up to take place in 48 through 96 hrs instead. Also just take a look at the trough itself on the satellite imagery. It's already east west oriented. Where is the forecasted positive tilt? Look just underneath the trough. Already you can actually see the high building in underneath. Look at the sub-tropical ridge.

More importantly than all that, for the first time, will you look at TD 10 itself? Forget about all the...well the B.S. Does that look to you like a weak system on the decline? Not only does TD 10 look great, it is very much strengthening. The thing is, this system is poised to begin its period of rapid strengthening sooner, and totally unabated. Never, ever have i seen a more conducive pattern for development. Rarely can a course heading be so predictable as TD 10's WNW heading over the next several days and longer. The Florida east coast is very much under the gun of a major hurricane threat. This will become much more clear to all in the next 24 hrs.

Again, this is not an official forecast endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. This is only my opinion. You need to refer to the NHC and the NWS for official information since this forecast is based on data that may not be sound. This forecast may be very wrong. All other opinions are encouraged to debate this forecast, and I hope that the Florida Keys do not suffer a hurricane. That's what this is shaping up to be, however. Please prove this forecast in error. I hope that it is wrong.

What a load of garbage. Its over, its a wave. MOVE ON!!!!

[jkt21787]

delusion

n 1: (psychology) an erroneous belief that is held in the face of evidence to the contrary.

Example:

More importantly than all that, for the first time, will you look at TD 10 itself? Forget about all the...well the B.S. Does that look to you like a weak system on the decline? Not only does TD 10 look great, it is very much strengthening. The thing is, this system is poised to begin its period of rapid strengthening sooner, and totally unabated. Never, ever have i seen a more conducive pattern for development.

THANK YOU!!!! Delusion has been running rampant with this poster it seems as long as I've been watching his/her posts.

[Brent]

delusion

n 1: (psychology) an erroneous belief that is held in the face of evidence to the contrary.

I think SEVERAL people here(without naming names) fall under that...