TD 10...Back Again

[Wnghs2007]

So, I guess since its a wave now, if it were to ever re develop down the road, it would be reclassified as Tropical Depression 11 right? Because Its Lost its Circulation


So for all those people wondering, TD 10 just like last year is the First storm that doesnt reach TS strength

[boca]

Please lock this thread or shall we call it the wave thread that could.

[artist]

boca - why lock it? if people feel like discussing it still, I see no harm in it.

[elysium]

My forecast doesn't even begin for another 11 or so hours. However, O.K., flame away now. If you would care to offer some data to go along with the flaming, it would be appreciated; including satellite imagery. Anything to credibly challenge this forecast is welcome; if you just want to flame, it wouldn't necessarily be helpful, but I suppose that's fine too.

No one here thinks that the forecast is valid.

[artist]

well - maybe the title should be changed to gone again.

[boca]

Artist good point, I guess change the title to THE WAVE.

[jkt21787]

No one here thinks that the forecast is valid.

Not to flame, but thats one statement that I finally agree with you on.

[boca]

Elysuim PUT DISCLAIMERS IN YOUR FORECASTS. I put it in caps so you"d get the idea across.

[mahicks]

Elysuim PUT DISCLAIMERS IN YOUR FORECASTS. I put it in caps so you"d get the idea across.

??..I thought that was the one thing he did right today? Did I miss something???

[dwg71]

My forecast doesn't even begin for another 11 or so hours. However, O.K., flame away now. If you would care to offer some data to go along with the flaming, it would be appreciated; including satellite imagery. Anything to credibly challenge this forecast is welcome; if you just want to flame, it wouldn't necessarily be helpful, but I suppose that's fine too.

No one here thinks that the forecast is valid.

The NHC credibly debunked your entire forecast, with recon, quickscat, satelite, what else do you need.

[jkt21787]

Elysuim PUT DISCLAIMERS IN YOUR FORECASTS. I put it in caps so you"d get the idea across.

??..I thought that was the one thing he did right today? Did I miss something???

Yes he put disclaimers.

Something is fishy about elysium, now that everything is against the wave, former TD10, even RECON, these "out there" forecasts continue. Sounds trollish as far as I'm concerned.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My forecast doesn't even begin for another 11 or so hours. However, O.K., flame away now. If you would care to offer some data to go along with the flaming, it would be appreciated; including satellite imagery. Anything to credibly challenge this forecast is welcome; if you just want to flame, it wouldn't necessarily be helpful, but I suppose that's fine too.

No one here thinks that the forecast is valid.

I'v got no problems with your forecast. In if you use soild data then you have a right. If they went to quastion it they will just have to get data to beat your data. Its like a card game my friend. Try not to go crazy on your forecast to. Other wise keep learning.

[elysium]

So far only one poster here, Sanibel, has correctly located the center north of the islands. This center, positioned west of where everyone other than than Sanibel is looking, is fairly well defined to the experienced observer, and I don't think it's close.

Just an opinion. If anyone cares to credibly challenge my forecast, or even kindly state what it is that he or she is looking at, it would be helpful. Being rude without knowledge is not.

[boca]

How come the recon could not find a center?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Because that SAL surge distroyed it. In also we did not need recon to find that out. You could just look at visible or even the new quickscat. But who knows...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't see a problem with him forcasting something. What I do see if some people attacking other people for the forcast they make. I don't see those people putting out their own forcast's and as far as I'm concerned I actually like hearing both sides of the story. I thought he put pleanty of disclaimers in his forcast and that he did a good job explaining it. Therefore I will have to keep his forcast open in my mind and also the NHC's forcast. Anyone could be right and anyone could be wrong and either way that was a better forcast that I could have done at this point good job and to that I give you a bravo. I think people need to calm down and not bash everyone's point of view.

This is not a forecast, it is an answer to a question arising from my unofficial forecast above. Please refer to the disclaimer. this is not an official forecast nor is it endorsed by any professional meteorological organization, including storm2k.org. For official info refer to the NHC or the NWS.


In response to the request for data;
The NWS is shifting from a position that it had taken earlier on the possibility of a trough impacting the ridge. Previously, the NWS had forecasted a trough exiting the east coast that would push back the ridge. If that forecast had held up, TD 10 would have needed to slow down in forward speed before rebuilding for reasons kinda too complex to get into. Anyway, now that the NWS is forecasting the trough to be sheared off which will allow the ridge to build in underneath; which is also being forecasted by the NWS; this greatly impacts the future forecast on TD 10. The more credible models will unquestionably shift further to the south or left. Also, TD 10 has never looked better. This system is on the way up, and there will not be a trough to contend with in 4 or 5 days that might have lead to slowing down of forward speed and some weakening. So a complication that had been in the forecast on day 4 and 5 is no longer present.

And look at the GFS. The 96 through 144 hr. scenario depicted in the 12Z-18Z is setting up to take place in 48 through 96 hrs instead. Also just take a look at the trough itself on the satellite imagery. It's already east west oriented. Where is the forecasted positive tilt? Look just underneath the trough. Already you can actually see the high building in underneath. Look at the sub-tropical ridge.

More importantly than all that, for the first time, will you look at TD 10 itself? Forget about all the...well the B.S. Does that look to you like a weak system on the decline? Not only does TD 10 look great, it is very much strengthening. The thing is, this system is poised to begin its period of rapid strengthening sooner, and totally unabated. Never, ever have i seen a more conducive pattern for development. Rarely can a course heading be so predictable as TD 10's WNW heading over the next several days and longer. The Florida east coast is very much under the gun of a major hurricane threat. This will become much more clear to all in the next 24 hrs.

Again, this is not an official forecast endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. This is only my opinion. You need to refer to the NHC and the NWS for official information since this forecast is based on data that may not be sound. This forecast may be very wrong. All other opinions are encouraged to debate this forecast, and I hope that the Florida Keys do not suffer a hurricane. That's what this is shaping up to be, however. Please prove this forecast in error. I hope that it is wrong.

[dwg71]

There is not a LLC, it doesn't exist. Just sit back and let your "forecast" speak for itsself. I think your trying to convince yourself more than your convincing us.

The proof is in the pudding. If at this time tomorrow we have TD. You can gloat. When you go against the NHC with bold statements, plan on getting flamed. Your only vendication is when your "forecast" pans out. Otherwise crow is for dinner tomorrow.

[boca]

Sanibel what do you see that I don't please give some insight thanks.

[x-y-no]

My forecast doesn't even begin for another 11 or so hours. However, O.K., flame away now. If you would care to offer some data to go along with the flaming, it would be appreciated; including satellite imagery. Anything to credibly challenge this forecast is welcome; if you just want to flame, it wouldn't necessarily be helpful, but I suppose that's fine too.

No one here thinks that the forecast is valid.

LOL ...


11 hours, eh? That's a curious number ... but OK, according to you we should see this thing rapidly intensifying at 5AM tomorrow.

Let's see ... data ...

1) No surface circulation.

2) Weak, scattered convection.

3) a vigorous ULL only 5 degrees ahead directly in its path - a low which didn't move much today.

This thing could conceivably get its act together in a couple of days, in fact the Euro has a system stalled off the coast of north Florida on day 7. But babbling about it looking terrific right now is just plain silly.

[Scorpion]

Why is it that when we have good potential for a system the ridge will weaken or a ULL will get in the way?? It seems like the rule this season. IMO this season is turning into junk.