TD 10...Back Again

dwg71 · #921 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:32 pm

1961 had the most majors 7. I say no way...

#922 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:33 pm

Eyes2theSkies wrote:every body who is bashing elysium(if for some reason he happens to be correct) will be eating crow through November

mmm crow

#923 Postby **Trader Ron** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:33 pm

dwg71 wrote:1961 had the most majors 7. I say no way...

No Way..Jose..... :lol:

#924 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:35 pm

i say YES WAY!! lol

dwg71 · #925 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:37 pm

ivanhater wrote:i say YES WAY!! lol

1961 was a phenominal year..11/8/7. 4 majors developed in an 8 day span. Betsy - 4, Carla -5, Debbie - 3, Esther -4.

BensonTCwatcher · #926 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:37 pm

wow, I tuned in here and I must be in the wrong thread...this is Elysium's wave post right??

Well, wxman, can you do an analysis on a McIdas image before it gets dark on the LLC looking thing at 20.0 N 63.3 W? There may be one forming under that convection. it has a nmotion on the E side and a S motion on the W side no?

Not trying to do CPR here, but if that mess of a wave stays like that for another 3 hours I'll call it dead too.

mahicks · #927 Postby **mahicks** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:39 pm

What this thread has turned into because of "some" pretty silly "forecasts":

LOL

#928 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:39 pm

Eyes2theSkies wrote:every body who is bashing elysium(if for some reason he happens to be correct) will be eating crow through November

Well, it's not out of the realm of possibility that TD10 could regenerate, become a major hurricane, and move through the Florida straits. However unlikely that is, I don't think anyone would be foolish enough to say that's impossible or that it simply won't happen. One thing most experienced forecasters learn early-on is never say never.

The big difference is the *how* and the *why*, if it happens.

#929 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:49 pm

can some one tell me how to uplaod on here please

mahicks · #930 Postby **mahicks** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:50 pm

storms in NC wrote:can some one tell me how to uplaod on here please

Sure, but depends on what do you want to upload?

#931 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:50 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:20/11/7

Precisely my numbers. All we need from here out is 11 named storms to get to 20. I figure we'll have 3 develop before the end of August, 6 in September, and 2 in October. Pattern changes next week...

#932 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:53 pm

mahicks wrote:
storms in NC wrote:can some one tell me how to uplaod on here please

Sure, but depends on what do you want to upload?

.

I just want to know how cause I do save satellite pic.

mahicks · #933 Postby **mahicks** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:20/11/7

Precisely my numbers. All we need from here out is 11 named storms to get to 20. I figure we'll have 3 develop before the end of August, 6 in September, and 2 in October. Pattern changes next week...

Awesome,

I was waiting for a Met to give a number. I hope your right. But I hope most are fish, even though I wouldn't mind a TD/TS here in the big bend to cool things off a little.

I got used to all the rain until Irene sucked out the moisture and the ULL in the gulf moved west and took the rest. Now it's just plain 'ol August Hot.....The Dog Days.

dwg71 · #934 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:20/11/7

Precisely my numbers. All we need from here out is 11 named storms to get to 20. I figure we'll have 3 develop before the end of August, 6 in September, and 2 in October. Pattern changes next week...

The 11 you can almost sell me on. But 8 Hurricanes and 5 majors, I'll believe it when I see it.

#935 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:03 pm

forget it I'll try some other time

cinlfla · #936 Postby **cinlfla** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:05 pm

Your link is not working

mahicks · #937 Postby **mahicks** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:05 pm

storms in NC wrote:[img]

this is from earlyer today around 1:30 pm
Now see it now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg[/img]

I sent you a PM on how to do this, but it looks like you about got it figured out.

The reason your last pic didn't load was it was closed with an image tag but wasn't opened with one [img][/img]

mahicks · #938 Postby **mahicks** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:06 pm

cinlfla wrote:Your link is not working

take the [/img] off the end of the link until he gets time to edit his post.

BensonTCwatcher · #939 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:06 pm

try this

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

and see my above post on a new center. yes? no? hmmmm

elysium · #940 Postby **elysium** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:11 pm

Just getting back from a double-check of every bit of data that I could scape up. Haven't found anything so far that changes anything significantly enough to alter the forecast. Had actually looked for a solution that would bring the center southward through the Straits. The models pretty much dismiss that possibility. I haven't, but am not finding anything that would support that solution. What the main issue seems to be is TD 10's current heading, which appears to be WNW as described by the NHC. The NWS also appears to be on point regarding the trough. The GFS looks pretty good too. Not much error to be found there. NAM is also pretty error free. I like combining both of these solutions.

Haven't hit the UKMET but have to believe that they too are conforming into a consensus. Basically, I haven't found any error with any of the models, the NHC or the NWS. Someone mentioned that the NHC hadn't found a circulation center, but usually the first recon is subject to a lot of error. Anyway, I'm sure the NHC will stay on top of it.

If there are any errant models or forecasts issuing from either the NHC or NWS, I haven't found it. They look pretty good to me.

TD 10...Back Again

mmmmm

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