Central/SW/Western Caribbean disturbance thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

One quastion the nhc has upgraded for just closing off a LLC with 25 to 30 mph winds. In when this was upgraded the first time it had a quickscat that backs up 40 knot flags. This system has quickscats in which Irene did not have for days in support of it. I'm trying to use the data in history to speak for me.

Yes it doe's not look good tonight. In fact its hard to call it anything right now. Also look at the visible you can clearly see that there is a line of of dust/Sal about 10 degrees East. What is that going to do? I don't think it will do anything good for the system.

Also look at that southwestly shear moving out from the islands. This system is going go right into the teeth of it.

Discreit me if you wish.


Also back on topic. That system is worth watching just for the fact that the shear is gong down. I will need to take a closer look at it.

[ConvergenceZone]

Matt, I agree. I personally think TD10 is dead, gone, history! It doesn't suppose to get more favorable for a couple of days, and by that time it's going to be too late.... Something can't come out of nothing, and it's quickly turning into nothing. Put a fork in it.

[wxmann_91]

and while I don't want to jump on the "it's over" bandwagon, I will say that every day that goes by diminishes the chance of this being a record season. Time is running out for that, but I still think that September will bring us some storms with may be a couple of more in October before it's all said and done.

Yeah, I think 22 named storms was a bit overboard. 13-18 named storms look more realistic.

[ConvergenceZone]

and while I don't want to jump on the "it's over" bandwagon, I will say that every day that goes by diminishes the chance of this being a record season. Time is running out for that, but I still think that September will bring us some storms with may be a couple of more in October before it's all said and done.

Yeah, I think 22 named storms was a bit overboard. 13-18 named storms look more realistic.

agreed

[superfly]

This sytem looks interesting right now, could develop into something. Could be a trick of the eye but I see a broad circulation.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

First of all people this is not a disrabance or even a wave. The Nhc doe's not wave any way near this area. You can clearly see that there is a elongated Upper low to the north. In which is forcing winds/energy(Westward flow) to force there way up from the tropical trade winds(Eastly). Look at cimss at the lower levels on how they move east to west cross the tropics then they come together.Then BOOM!!!

There is no signs of developed as of yet. In no LLC on quickscats unlike our friend tropical depression 10. But also if the rsing of the air keeps up maybe what the Cmc/MM5 seens last night could just happen in a few days. Who knows the shear is not that bad over the western Caribbean.

So the closes thing we got for a tropical cyclone expect Irene is tropical depression 10. In which it will have its own problems with the SAL surge that is about ready to over run it. Plus it will run into the teeth of the upper low shear/TUTT. So after Irene it might be quite for a while.

So this is my option.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[ConvergenceZone]

this August is about as dead as it gets! I used to go to a progressive rock festival on the east coast in the middle of August every year, and I always remember at least one decent strength storm out in the Atlantic on this date.... but not this year.

[superfly]

First of all people this is not a disrabance or even a wave. The Nhc doe's not wave any way near this area. You can clearly see that there is a elongated Upper low to the north. In which is forcing winds/energy(Westward flow) to force there way up from the tropical trade winds(Eastly). Look at cimss at the lower levels on how they move east to west cross the tropics then they come together.Then BOOM!!!

There is no signs of developed as of yet. In no LLC on quickscats unlike our friend tropical depression 10. But also if the rsing of the air keeps up maybe what the Cmc/MM5 seens last night could just happen in a few days. Who knows the shear is not that bad over the western Caribbean.

So the closes thing we got for a tropical cyclone expect Irene is tropical depression 10. In which it will have its own problems with the SAL surge that is about ready to over run it. Plus it will run into the teeth of the upper low shear/TUTT. So after Irene it might be quite for a while.

While I agree ex-TD10 is still the best bet right now to form into a tropical cyclone, there's no harm in monitoring an area with a large amount of convection.

[wxwatcher91]

wow this thread is the most depressing thing I ever read through.
"TD 10 is dead, SAL is overrunning the entire Atlantic, ULLs are multiplying by the dozens and shear is up to 100kts across the Atlantic Basin, plus SSTs have fallen below freezing and ice bergs have been noted flowing through the Florida Straits."
now most of the top Im exaggerating of course and what people have said in this thread I'm not disagreeing with... I'm just noting that it wouldnt suprise me to see someone post here next "the sun is going out"

[WeatherEmperor]

hey thats what storm2K is all about. I believe this section is called "Talkin Tropics" not "Talkin TD10" so thats what we are doing: talkin tropics.

<RICKY>

[wxwatcher91]

hey thats what storm2K is all about. I believe this section is called "Talkin Tropics" not "Talkin TD10" so thats what we are doing: talkin tropics.

<RICKY>

yeah I know. I was just making a note that this thread was depressing btw ok? dont jump on me

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM IRENE...WHICH IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

[dwg71]

Eye, you do a great job with getting us all the info out there in a timely manner. Thank you.

If we get to sept 1 with these #'s 9/3/2, you can forget 20 named storms imo.

[WeatherEmperor]

Eye, you do a great job with getting us all the info out there in a timely manner. Thank you.

If we get to sept 1 with these #'s 9/3/2, you can forget 20 named storms imo.

Yeah this August seems to be going very very slow.

<RICKY>

[Recurve]

But then again, we can all remember times when there's three named storms and two depressions marching across the Atlantic at once. Those great gusts of dry air aren't helping, but everything else is pretty much in place for a tropical quickstep to begin at any time. And the Gulf water sure is hot.

[WindRunner]

Really, one strong wave comes off of Africa at 15-20N and SAL is gone and we'd be going crazy with storms.

[fci]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM IRENE...WHICH IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

Am i missing something?
No mention at all of former TD10.
Isn't there a recon flight there now?

OOPS, I MISSED THAT THIS WAS EDITED BY LUIS TO THE TD 10 THREAD. MY BAD.....

[Ivanhater]

luis put that part in the td10 thread

[rockyman]

Even though the convection has died out this evening, there seems to be a real tight swirl off the east coast of Nicaragua (even more evident without all that pesky convection covering it up!) Anyone been watching this? Anyone have any weather observations from Central America?

[Hurricaneman]

This is imo the area to watch right now