TD 10...Back Again

[fci]

I know what... Since this thread has been reduced to bashing individuals with an opinion (who can write well) maybe it should be locked. Furthermore, I agree its time to move on with this wave ,X-TD10, bunch of clouds, one T-storm system or whatever you want to call it... If not, maybe we can change the name Talkin Tropics to Talkin Trash.....Im sure we can all learn for that.....IMO

If you think I am bashing, you need to learn what bashing is. I have asked legitimate questions and have not recieved the answers which were offered and requested.

You aren't bashing. Elsyium makes ridiculous claims just to get everyones panties in a bunch. Then offers no data to back up anything he says and no verification.

Remember...within the last day or two he said TD10 was moving into the best environment hes ever seen and it would be a record breaking hurricane...something of that sort.

He is completely ridiculous....

Imagine my shock when I woke up and the "11 hour" period had come to an end and still........
no historic major hurricane....

But there is still hope that E will see a twist somewhere in the Tropics and provide us a NEW forecast of a major hurricane of historic proportions for the East Coast in the next couple of days.

Or a snowstorm for Atlanta this weekend!

[Air Force Met]

I know what... Since this thread has been reduced to bashing individuals with an opinion (who can write well) maybe it should be locked. Furthermore, I agree its time to move on with this wave ,X-TD10, bunch of clouds, one T-storm system or whatever you want to call it... If not, maybe we can change the name Talkin Tropics to Talkin Trash.....Im sure we can all learn for that.....IMO

I disagree. An opinion is one thing...but one based in fact, but given as fact is another...especially when this has happened before. People who come on this board and post sensationalist claims deserve what they get. WE are not here to hold hands and sing campfire songs. We are here to talk tropics. When someone CONSTANTLY makes outlandish claims with no basis in fact...you think they deserve to be heard? This is not TWC boards.

By and large...people deserve what they get. Maybe if they would learn a lesson and stop with the wild scenerios that are not going to happen...then this wouldn't happen. You don't yet "FIRE!" in a crowded theater without consequences...and you don't yell "FIRE!" in here...over and over again...without some retrobution. Part of the problem with our society is that we are made to feel like we have to take everyone's opinions into consideration. Well...frankly...not everyone's opinion is worthy of consideration...especially when they prove that their opinion is pretty worthless because it's usually wrong. If people want to post an opinion...be prepared to be challenged on it. When it is always wrong...but they come across (all the time) as "this WILL happen"...then they need to be prepared for the consequences. IT reminds me of a puppy chewing on an electrical cord. IF they want to still chew...then they need to expect the jolt that follows.

[Air Force Met]

Actually, I had expected to possibly see more of a defined center by this hour, however, it is still a little early for that yet, and we should get a much better picture on the daylight visable. TD 10 has clearly gained some additional convection, but that was well anticipated. Have nothing new to post until the center shows up.

I hadn't. Convection is gained because of diurnal max...and vis shots won't help. SWIR imagery shows no LLC...still. No surprise here.

[KWT]

AFM,I presume by diurnal max you mean overnight the cloud tops are colder and so it's more likely to look more impressive overnight on IR.If you look at any unorgainsed storms it isn't uncommon for flare-ups to occur during the night,its when they occur in the day thats a tad more uncommon.
(now waiting to see how Irene's remains boost the larger LP that it has now absorbed,pressure already down to 972mbs apperently)

[Cookiely]

Fifty odd pages. If all the emotions and energy that everyone has exerted for TD10 were harvested, goodness knows she would be one mighty hurricane. You do have to hand it to these storms in early August. They have battled some incredibly harsh conditions to even survive. I know its crazy but in a sense I have been rooting for TD10.

[Wnghs2007]

Or a snowstorm for Atlanta this weekend!

Ill take that, ROFLMAO

[Phoenix78]

Talk about no respect - In this morning's Melbourne Fl AFD:

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT FLOW
ACROSS THE LCL WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS AOB 2FT THRU THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL WAVE N OF PUERTO RICO MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS/SEAS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED BE A FACTOR FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

C-ya, Ex-10!!!

...Alan

[Nimbus]

The NHC said no development expected through Saturday.

There is still some shear over the wave and it would take a while for a circulation to restart anyways so that sounds like a good forecast.

I don't like the southern track that ex 10 has been taking as a wave though.

The upper air flow appears quite zonal with the ridge still building north of the track.

An area of potential future development aimed through the straits of Florida makes it more of a concern.

[Thunder44]

There seems to be a mid-level circulation of near 20N and 65W this morning but nothing I can tell at the surface. There seems to be some westerly shear further west as well.

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

The long range loop of the San Juan radar shows the disturbance well.

[Air Force Met]

AFM,I presume by diurnal max you mean overnight the cloud tops are colder and so it's more likely to look more impressive overnight on IR.If you look at any unorgainsed storms it isn't uncommon for flare-ups to occur during the night,its when they occur in the day thats a tad more uncommon.
(now waiting to see how Irene's remains boost the larger LP that it has now absorbed,pressure already down to 972mbs apperently)

The diurnal max is basically the same mechanism that occurs over land in the daytime. Simply put...in the day over land, the land warms much more rapidly than the air above it. This makes the air unstable (cooler air over warm sfc) and you get more convection. OVer water, the cycle is reversed. It occurs at night because the specific heat of water is much higher than that of air...so the water stays warm. After the sun goes down...the air cools. So...eventually...you get cooler air over warmer water. The max is early in the morning when the air is most unstable because it has been cooling since the sun goes down. All you need is a litte convergence at the sfc...and some divergence aloft and boom...you get thunderstorms because the air is unstable. During the day...the air is more stable over water because the air temp is warmer than the sfc temp...so it takes more convergence at the sfc to overcome the relatively stable air....thus you need a more organized system.

Hope that helps.

[x-y-no]

Interestingly, last night's 0z run of the European takes TD10's remanant wave across SFL into the Gulf for the first time (all prior runs turned it north just east of FL ad developed it near NFL/GA).

If that verifies. that could clearly allow for something to develop in the Gulf next weekend.

[mascpa]

We could use the rain. It has been excessively hot and dry around here lately. And where have my sea breezes gone???

[Air Force Met]

My forecast doesn't even begin for another 11 or so hours. However, O.K., flame away now. If you would care to offer some data to go along with the flaming, it would be appreciated; including satellite imagery. Anything to credibly challenge this forecast is welcome; if you just want to flame, it wouldn't necessarily be helpful, but I suppose that's fine too.

No one here thinks that the forecast is valid.

OK...the eleven hours are up...and the tops are warming as we come out of the diurnal max. A rapid intensification process is not underway and there are not "many" posters here calling for the same forecast, as you claimed there would be.

Now...given you believed your forecast was based on credible data...would you care to explain why your interpretation of the data was flawed and why we are not seenig the intensification that was called for?

[gatorcane]

I wouldn't be so sure ex-TD 10 is dead yet. It has alot of very warm water to cover until it gets to S. Florida. It could strengthen rapidly....

[Air Force Met]

I wouldn't be so sure ex-TD 10 is dead yet. It has alot of very warm water to cover until it gets to S. Florida. It could strengthen rapidly....

I for one am not saying it's dead...but the idea that it was going to get organized over night was not a good forecast...and saying it was looking better than it ever had was very bad observation...because it was clearly not the case.

I think it still has potential in a couple of days...but calling for a major hurricane of historic proportions was reckless...especially when you just have a tropical wave that can't keep convection for more than 12 hours. But...that's the benefit of not being a pro-met...you can make those outlandish forecasts without being held accountable by your boss...and if done enough...getting fired.

[gatorcane]

climatology says a major hurricane is possible given the position that it is in. More major hurricanes have hit the southern peninsula of FL between now and the peak of the season than anywhere else.

[storms in NC]

I wouldn't be so sure ex-TD 10 is dead yet. It has alot of very warm water to cover until it gets to S. Florida. It could strengthen rapidly....

It is dieing out as I speak. I have read what Air force Met had to say and it is doing just that. It don't think it likes the day time hours it seem

[Air Force Met]

climatology says a major hurricane is possible given the position that it is in. More major hurricanes have hit the southern peninsula of FL between now and the peak of the season than anywhere else.

Of course a major is possible...but you don't forecast every tropical wave to become a major hurricane. Anywhere in the tropics this time of year could support a major hurricane...but it takes more than warm water to be a major hurricane...

[caribepr]

Had some high strangeness for a while...

Out of context, but point made. Don't play with strangers. Simple.