Will Dr. Gray's numbers go down in September ?

[WeatherEmperor]

Im really gonna laugh about all this SAL talk in August and then September rolls along and produces like 7-8 named storms and then the talk about SAL will be completely different.

<RICKY>

[dwg71]

Im really gonna laugh about all this SAL talk in August and then September rolls along and produces like 7-8 named storms and then the talk about SAL will be completely different.

<RICKY>

The SAL is real, hurricanes dont develop in dry, dusty, african air. Its not a hoax it right there on the WV loops. Until it moves out you can bank on these waves fizzling out.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think he should update in June then again August. Not in September that is not right.

But I think he will be lowing his numbers to around 15 to 17 named storms. I said 15 around mid March.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im really gonna laugh about all this SAL talk in August and then September rolls along and produces like 7-8 named storms and then the talk about SAL will be completely different.

<RICKY>

The SAL is real, hurricanes dont develop in dry, dusty, african air. Its not a hoax it right there on the WV loops. Until it moves out you can bank on these waves fizzling out.

..........I know that. What I said was that when September rolls around and makes 7-8 named storms Im gonna just laugh it up cause alot of us here are thinking that it is gonna shut down so much of this season. Remember that in 1998 the 2nd named storm, Bonnie didnt even form until August 20th and the entire 1998 season ended up with 14 named storms. SAL may be stopping development right now, but not significantly enough for Dr.Gray to cut down numbers drastically.

<RICKY>

[dwg71]

If we enter Sept at 9/3/2, I have a feeling he will cut them by 2 - 3, to 17-18. That would mean 8-9 new named storms form in the next 3 months. Not a stretch, I think 11 would be a stretch.

[dwg71]

Also, over the last decade (an extremely active period), there have been on average 7.7 named storms form after 9/1. Historically the number has been closer to 6 I believe.

The average Sept. - 4.2

The average Oct. - 2.7

The average Nov - Dec. - .8

[NastyCat4]

Yes he will lower them--the numbers were ludicrously overhyped in the first place---should be more like 15-16 named storms TOPS!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

ludicrously overhyped? uh huh....its posts like these that really answer the questions on why forecasters from real, official agencies generally don't post here or other weather messages boards

[Frank2]

The negative media comments have begun - last night I heard no less than three different outlets commenting on "what has happened to the hurricane season" - here's one, from our local NBC affiliate:

http://www.nbc6.net/weather/4868940/detail.html

Frank

P.S. Again, this is why our HRD Director of the 1980's was so against these long range predictions (not forecasts, but predictions) - they just make everyone in the business look bad when either nothing happens, or too much happens, if the forecast is for a slow season.

P.P.S. Note the last sentence of the article!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Can't take the heat get out of the oven. If you make a forecast your going to get other peoples options cooking you. Pro or any one.

[Thunder44]

Right now I say no. I think people are to much out of the so called "lull" we are having, and forgeting what happened last year. People expecting a storm to form every week.

[dhweather]

Can't take the heat get out of the oven. If you make a forecast your going to get other peoples options cooking you. Pro or any one.

Options?

[Sanibel]

This lull is probably the season evening out and setting up July conditions a little late. We are still well within statisical activity for August.

The obvious question is whether these conditions will prolong and bust Dr Gray or be temporary...

[jasons2k]

I say no.

A few weeks of relative calm does not equal a "busted" season. Emphasis on the relative b/c in a "normal" season the past 2-3 weeks would not be billed as slow.

It's only August 19 for crying out loud!

I think Floydbuster summed it up pretty good in last night's video.

It ain't over 'till it's over IMO.

[Sanibel]

A few weeks of relative calm does not equal a "busted" season.

If you are answering what I wrote, I never said it was a "busted" season. Your response makes it look like I was implying this lull represents a busted season. I specifically said we are still within August statistics. Still, if you were following the charts posted during the active early season, a good percentage of hot-starting seasons end up with weak second halfs...

[jasons2k]

A few weeks of relative calm does not equal a "busted" season.

If you are answering what I wrote, I never said it was a "busted" season. Your response makes it look like I was implying this lull represents a busted season. I specifically said we are still within August statistics. Still, if you were following the charts posted during the active early season, a good percentage of hot-starting seasons end up with weak second halfs...

Hey Sanibel,

No, I wasn't responding to your post specifically, in fact I agree with you 100% we are within normal August statistics

I was simply responding to numerous posts the last week or so of 'this season's over' just b/c we've had a little lull...hope that clarifies.

[jax]

I think he'll reduce drasticly...

[Frank2]

The issue is that at present there are a number of factors against tropical cyclone development. Much needs to change if the season is going to become active once again, before a Fall weather pattern begins to finalize the outcome.

Sure, it's "only" August 19, but, some seasons have ended in mid-September (1979 comes to mind) - click on http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html to view.

Frank

[jasons2k]

Well, there are indications that those changes are indeed occurring.

Really, I think it could go either way. It could indeed be a slow Sept.-Oct. if some of the inhibiting factors don't let up.

What's more important though, in any forecast, is what lies ahead. I just think it's too premature to pull the numbers based on what we've seen the past few weeks, and it just seems that a lot are basing the rest of the season on that. It's a knee-jerk reaction IMO. And again, in any normal year, the past few weeks wouldn't be considered slow...

[NastyCat4]

"The worst hurricane season of all time. A record-brreaking season. Incomparably high SST's" Yes, overhyped, and subject to extreme hyperbole. The "worst season" was last year, and we will get more storms, but NOTHING like last year. I stand by what I say, and will not "adjust my predictions." Maximum of 15-16 named storms.