TD 10...Back Again

Website · #1061 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:18 am

11:30 TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHWARD OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

#1062 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:19 am

Brent wrote:11:30 TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHWARD OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Thank you Brent. That was very much appreciated right now.

<RICKY>

#1063 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:20 am

Air Force Met wrote:
cinlfla wrote:
I believe my 19 yrs of education (non- met field) qualifies me to know what bashing is as it compares to constructive criticism, Mr. Houtex. Your response was not constructive in any way and yes it was bashing IMO. That being said, to keep jumping on this guy's back because he's starting to learn what hes talking about, is wrong at all levels. So he's a little off with his opinions and he writes length posts that defy logic. That doesn't give us the right to pile on the guy

I have to agree with you. It seems like a lot of posters like to bash Elysium for the most part. I actually feel sorry for this person. This is what makes me afraid to post certain things in fear of being attacked for my comment or suggestion. This board is for everyone not just the experienced mets and if elysium is not name calling or being rude what the heck is the problem....

If you make posts in the same manner...then yes...get prepared. Questions and guesses are a different story (which seems to be what people are missing). Making OUTRAGEOUS forecasts as if THIS WILL HAPPEN!!!...and then changing your mind to the opposite and saying "THIS WILL HAPPEN!!!" opens you up. So...there is no culpability for those who are sensationalists? Just let 'em? Sorry...I disagree. The best thing is to ignore them until they learn their lesson...but you HAVE to respond to some extend least anyone else be drawn into a really bad forecast made by someone who really can't forecast and probably shouldn't be attempting. Many people are in and out on this board every day...and they might read something posted by this person and there needs to be responses given.

It results to bashing when...in the past...these crazy outlandish forecasts are made and then they just disappear...no facts...no discussion...nothing...only to reappear latter with another outlandish forecasts.

There is a such thing as bringing it on yourself...and when they do that...you need to stop with the sympathy. If I shoot mayself in the foot on purpose...I don't want anyone feeling sorry for me. It's called being an adult. There are a lot of things people can do....forecasts...questions...that won't lead to being bashed. There are...also...a lot of things people can do that open themselves up for it. If they don't learn their lesson the first dozen times...whose fault is it?

This post and your previous one with the puppy analogy were golden IMO.

cinlfla · #1064 Postby **cinlfla** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:21 am

TD10 IS

DEAD DEAD DEAD

let it go man.............

There is no doubt about that....but when the next storm comes its going to be the same thing someone will post there thoughts or even a forecast and will get nitpicked to death. So maybe someone will start a thread on how we can all respect one another's thoughts, forecast, opinions ect....while were waiting for another storm. Elysium is a prime example of being nitpicked I am defending this person because he/ she was ganged up on by a few other posters. I think we are all old enough to know what to believe and what not to believe as far as weather related post go.

cinlfla · #1065 Postby **cinlfla** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:23 am

11:30 TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHWARD OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Ok I'm waiting for the next one, maybe one of the waves off of Africa will be something to watch

#1066 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:25 am

cinlfla wrote:
11:30 TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHWARD OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Ok I'm waiting for the next one, maybe one of the waves off of Africa will be something to watch

Yeah. Majority of the models wanna develop this thing so Im gonna watch this one.

<RICKY>

artist · #1067 Postby **artist** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:32 am

cinfla - if he were truly trying to forecast and not sensationalize - yes he should be respected - but he is not. The pro's here can see that as there is absolutely no attempt to even look at the storm in realistic conditions.
Even if he were to state what he is truly seeing and not just say - It is going to be the storm of the century - hyping then he could be given the benefit of a doubt. As he presents it - he is sensationalizing - and needs to be called on it. In the beginning he refused to post the disclaimer even though being told to repeatedly - until, I have a feeling he was threatened with suspension. JMHO

#1068 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:38 am

Now are we done yet? Now let's just wait for the next one OKAY.

#1069 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:57 am

storms in NC wrote:Now are we done yet? Now let's just wait for the next one OKAY.

...done at least until the next ridiculous forecast...then it'll start all over... :lol:

Sanibel · #1070 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:16 am

TD10 - Poof

Small twist north of Hispaniola too weak to comment on...

#1071 Postby **sponger** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:19 am

Is it just me or does the visible look better than it has in days? I know the water vapor image does not back it up as for as convection, but does anyone know how strong the mid level circulation was from recon yesterday?

Also, baed on previous posts I think we all need to tone it down a notch IMHO. Trolling for responses is unacceptable bewhavior (for adults) but so is bashing the trol! Ignore and they will lose interest!

elysium · #1072 Postby **elysium** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:20 am

I've read the posts, I've read the posts....whew. But so far can anyone at least determine whether or not the ridge will bridge over the SE conus? If I wasn't following model guidance on this one, I would say that it appears that it will, but I would be basing that assumption solely on satellite imagery, and while helpful, satellite imagery observations should be backed up at all times by data such as pressures readings, or reports from either the NHC or NWS.

Haven't had a chance to do anything yet. Did take a brief look at imagery of remnant TD 10. I have to agree that it is looking pretty lackluster. Why that is I do not know. The shear is very light, but there is a possibility that because of what this system has been through, it would stand to reason that even very light shear wouldn't be too conducive for development. I have no idea. Actually I haven't had time to do more than read posts, but no where is any information on the what is taking place with the ridge evident.

Why bother researching the ridge if, as a lot of people are saying, TD 10 is no more? Well firstly, TD 10 remnants are still worthy of receiving NHC commentary, so someone must know that in fact at least something is there; but assuming TD 10 isn't there, it would still benefit to get a better handle on the bridging ridge over the SE. FWIW, the GFS has a large hurricane impacting Florida's east coast in 2 weeks. Now of course there is a lot of error in these long range forecasts and much can happen between now and then. Interestingly though, the GFS 12Z in 360 hrs. depicts a strongly bridged high pressure ridge over the SE and mid-Atlantic. It would be interesting to see how the GFS does with this feature by watching the bridge take place at its earliest beginnings. It never hurts to at least be aware about what the models are depicting. If knowing more about the bridging high is helpful in learning more about TD 10 remnants, so much the better. If I can find anything that might shed some light on this, I will gladly share it, but I haven't found anything yet.

As for TD 10 remnants, as long as it is receiving commentary from the NHC it too is worth watching. Looking at the satellite imagery, I do not know what to make of it this hour, but that too could change. It is not so quiet in the tropics as is reported to be by many.

Jim Hughes · #1073 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:29 am

Sanibel wrote:TD10 - Poof

Small twist north of Hispaniola too weak to comment on...

Not to weak to comment on. :lol:

Jim

#1074 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:31 am

elysium wrote:I've read the posts, I've read the posts....whew. But so far can anyone at least determine whether or not the ridge will bridge over the SE conus? If I wasn't following model guidance on this one, I would say that it appears that it will, but I would be basing that assumption solely on satellite imagery, and while helpful, satellite imagery observations should be backed up at all times by data such as pressures readings, or reports from either the NHC or NWS.

Haven't had a chance to do anything yet. Did take a brief look at imagery of remnant TD 10. I have to agree that it is looking pretty lackluster. Why that is I do not know. The shear is very light, but there is a possibility that because of what this system has been through, it would stand to reason that even very light shear wouldn't be too conducive for development. I have no idea. Actually I haven't had time to do more than read posts, but no where is any information on the what is taking place with the ridge evident.

Why bother researching the ridge if, as a lot of people are saying, TD 10 is no more? Well firstly, TD 10 remnants are still worthy of receiving NHC commentary, so someone must know that in fact at least something is there; but assuming TD 10 isn't there, it would still benefit to get a better handle on the bridging ridge over the SE. FWIW, the GFS has a large hurricane impacting Florida's east coast in 2 weeks. Now of course there is a lot of error in these long range forecasts and much can happen between now and then. Interestingly though, the GFS 12Z in 360 hrs. depicts a strongly bridged high pressure ridge over the SE and mid-Atlantic. It would be interesting to see how the GFS does with this feature by watching the bridge take place at its earliest beginnings. It never hurts to at least be aware about what the models are depicting. If knowing more about the bridging high is helpful in learning more about TD 10 remnants, so much the better. If I can find anything that might shed some light on this, I will gladly share it, but I haven't found anything yet.

As for TD 10 remnants, as long as it is receiving commentary from the NHC it too is worth watching. Looking at the satellite imagery, I do not know what to make of it this hour, but that too could change. It is not so quiet in the tropics as is reported to be by many.

Can you do me some for me Please? don't post any more on former TD 10 till there is some out there and the NHC says so Please. It is get old reading the same thing over and over again. It is gone for now okay.

artist · #1075 Postby **artist** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:31 am

Congrats Elysium! Your post actually seemed reasonable without sensationalizing! And you asked for others thoughts on the ridege!

Sanibel · #1076 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:33 am

Even if it did refire it is headed towards dry air off Florida.

A July environment has set in with enhanced SAL. This makes sense in an active early season year where climatology sometimes creates a weak prime season...

#1077 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:34 am

As for TD 10 remnants, as long as it is receiving commentary from the NHC it too is worth watching. Looking at the satellite imagery, I do not know what to make of it this hour, but that too could change. It is not so quiet in the tropics as is reported to be by many.

the tropics are about as quiet as they get...it's dull out there...

elysium · #1078 Postby **elysium** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:52 am

Look 75 or so miles due north of Puerto Rico.

#1079 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:53 am

elysium wrote:Look 75 or so miles due north of Puerto Rico.

and you will find a disorganized and struggling system that once reached tropical depression status.

Sanibel · #1080 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:53 am

Too weak. If I were you I'd wait for something to form before commenting. I think you are pushing it if you know what I mean...

TD 10...Back Again

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