We should be watching NW Caribbean

[tailgater]

This area doesn't have great upper level support but it's not all that bad either. There's a good bit of moisture, warm SST's,a curviture in cloulds near the surface, low pressure in the general region and climotogly in it's favor. Why wouldn't other than land getting in it's way.

[tw861]

Actually there is a spin just east of the Honduras, Nicaragua border in the western Carribbean. This is the place to watch.

[WeatherEmperor]

well we might as well. If we spent days watching an overhyped ex-TD10 then we sure as well can do some watching with this.

<RICKY>

[dwg71]

Agreed, at least its a change of scenery. If Im looking at nothing, at least lets look for it in another place.

[x-y-no]

Actually there is a spin just east of the Honduras, Nicaragua border in the western Carribbean. This is the place to watch.

Yes, if that can track NW, it could do something. More likely it keeps moving more westerly across CA, though.

[tailgater]

Actually there is a spin just east of the Honduras, Nicaragua border in the western Carribbean. This is the place to watch.

I think there are a couple of mid level swirls in this area but I doubt they will hamper development much. I wish that buoy down there would work, I having trouble getting any recent data from that region.
Must not be overly concerned at TPC though, so I guess I'm getting pumped up for nothing.
Check that they did mention it in 10:30 TWO

[perk]

I tried to get the pressure east of Honduras but that buoy is not operational.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... it does appear to have a spin to it. Here's the infra-red loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

It'll be interesting to watch, at least for a while...

[dwg71]

GFS has it going West into Central America. I dont see anything coming from this swirl.

[deltadog03]

i also see a swirl....GFS SUCKS....I am not sure if anything will come of it but, it will becoming into some warm water and minimal shear...

[perk]

Whether or not if this system develops, it was directly east of Nicaragua yesterday and today it is east of Honduras.That is not a westard movement, and i agree the GFS sucks.

[dwg71]

Whether or not if this system develops, it was directly east of Nicaragua yesterday and today it is east of Honduras.That is not a westard movement, and i agree the GFS sucks.

GFS had it moving north along the coast and then westerd. So far so its right.

[perk]

Ok, but the GFS still sucks.

[tailgater]

The last few visible sat. pics when put into fast motion show that there is at least a lower level swirl or trough(if not at the surface), but not much heavy convention. All in all a little better organized than early this morning though it's still fighting the upper atmosphere. Does anybody know what the trough to the west is supposed to do, I think Matt said it was gonna hang out in the Caribbean for a couple of weeks.

[tailgater]

I'm surprised this thread isn't getting more hits the system in the NW Caribbean is looking fairly healthy tis morn. yes I know it's probably somewhat due the diurnal period but it's still looking better ex td 10

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I am sorry tailgater, I just started a new topic on this. I did not even see your post about it until now.It does look kind of suspicious to me also this morning. I am curious to see what some other people have to say later today if it holds together.

[webke]

It looks like it will go over the yucatan peninsula, I guess my question is will it emerge in the Gulf and still be able to organize.

[Steve]

Why the Central? This energy has been sitting in the WC since the thread started. But still, it's an interesting mass of clouds and one I speculated on another thread on Wed. or Thurs. that has the look. Something could easily get going down there along with x-10 to make the next couple of days very interesting.

Steve

[perk]

The reason this system is'nt getting any attention is because ex TD#10 is still sucking up a lot of interest on this board, and yeah i think this system shows more promise.

[Ixolib]

At least the Caribbean's being discussed to a pretty good degree...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2005

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WIND SHEAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THIS
AREA..

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...WHILE A 1009 MB LOW IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER BELIZ
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 84W-90W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... NE FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N69W
MAKING THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SINCE
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BELOW AT THE
SURFACE LEVEL. EXPECT THE N AND W CARIBBEAN TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.