Tropical Depression forms by 8/21/21z

[Jim Hughes]

We will be seeing a tropical depression form with the next couple of days....by 21/21z at the latest within the Atlantic basin. The former remnants of TD10 currently looks like the logical choice.

I am basing this on some matters that I have talked about in the past. A couple of other areas around the globe also seem to be picking up.

I spoke about it yesterday to donsoutherland1 in the Tropical Analysis forum

TD10: Initial thoughts

phpbb2/viewtopics.php?t=70471


Jim

[dwg71]

I will say it wont happen, and the next depression will be beyond the 22nd.

[Jim Hughes]

I will say it wont happen, and the next depression will be beyond the 22nd.

Well we shall see. I use to give 72 hour outlooks but I prefer a shorter 48 hour one. I gave myself four hours because a certain parameter has not reached a certain level. I would guess that it will within the next 4-8 hours at most.

If this does not occur than I would add 48 hours on to the time frame of when it is reached. If you read my other comments to DS1 than you understand what I am talking about.



Jim

[BRADGPSL-FL]

I THINK THAT WE WILL SEE A NEW TD FORM OVER THE WEEKEND

[dwg71]

I THINK THAT WE WILL SEE A NEW TD FORM OVER THE WEEKEND

Where? Any thoughts. Former TD 10, Caribbean wave, African wave emerging from coast.

[deltadog03]

i think the carribean wave has the best chance...imo

[dwg71]

i think the carribean wave has the best chance...imo

I agree with that, but I'm not real high on it because of its proximity to land and its forcast to move W or slightly N of west into Cent. America.

I'd give it 10%.

[ROCK]

i think the carribean wave has the best chance...imo

I agree with that, but I'm not real high on it because of its proximity to land and its forcast to move W or slightly N of west into Cent. America.

I'd give it 10%.

I'd give it 10-25%. Doesnt look good this afternoon. The NHC has backed off on any developement.

[nequad]

The best chance for development over the next 2 days is in the far Eastern Atlantic where we might very well see our first CV system of the season.

TD 10 is still a possible player, and something we all need to watch carefully.

[Steve H.]

I may agree with you Jim, but probably not for the same reasons.

[WeatherEmperor]

That could be interesting. Which one would be able to develop first, the former TD 10 or the wave just getting off the bus off Africa.

<RICKY>

[Jim Hughes]

I may agree with you Jim, but probably not for the same reasons.

Come on Steve everybody knows a TD usually forms on the third Friday of August. Give me a break

I want you to think about something. I have gone over historical data on all sides.

Now If I listed all major hurricanes...northeasters etc...talked about certain &*^%** events ...relationships...do you think I could post it here? No.

So I would expect everyone to still be skeptical. Now if anyone has followed *&^%^&** the past few weeks, since I started talking about it in this forum, they would have seen how this has changed...quieted down ...and the tropics followed it's beat.


Jim

[TPACane04]

<b>After consulting things I spoke of in the past (tea leaves, Magic 8 Ball, old parlay cards) I am projecting a TD to form in the Atlantic basin by Sept 30, 2005.</b>

COME ON....this "TD by Monday" prediction is insane. And then referring to it generically as something you spoke of in thepast, you seriously expect us to buy this tin can?

Just like my Memphis buddy who insisted Dennis was hitting very near New Orleans, I say this....

if there is no TD by your predicted date, you should agree to post no further "shots in the dark" the reminder of the season.

Game??

[Jim Hughes]

<b>After consulting things I spoke of in the past (tea leaves, Magic 8 Ball, old parlay cards) I am projecting a TD to form in the Atlantic basin by Sept 30, 2005.</b>

COME ON....this "TD by Monday" prediction is insane. And then referring to it generically as something you spoke of in thepast, you seriously expect us to buy this tin can?

Just like my Memphis buddy who insisted Dennis was hitting very near New Orleans, I say this....

if there is no TD by your predicted date, you should agree to post no further "shots in the dark" the reminder of the season.

Game??

This IS something that I have previously spoken about for the past three weeks. You would know this if you ever bothered to read any of my earlier Space weather threads. They are now in the Global Forum.

But I am very game with your challenge.... BTW I said a TD will form by 21z Sunday ... so lets not stretch my forecast hours.. ....One person in Global tells me to forecast 72 hours out when the NHC is not . Now you tell me it's like reading tea leaves.

I will not post any more development dates if I am wrong about this. I will then fall back into strictly researching and I will try and find out what other variables may have contributed to the EPAC and WPAC increase today.


So what happens if I am right? Do you at least read up on the subject matter? I think this is fair. You can not expect to have it both ways.


Jim

[TPACane04]

sure Jim, if you are correct on your dice roll by Sunday night, I will read your pontifications...but I prefer more steamier bathroom reading that what you may offer to us.

[NastyCat4]

When does Bill Gray do his "crow eating?" Sept 1??

[Jim Hughes]

sure Jim, if you are correct on your dice roll by Sunday night, I will read your pontifications...but I prefer more steamier bathroom reading that what you may offer to us.

I do not want you to read my stuff as much as I want you to read the published research papers in regards to the space weather effect upon things like the NAO.... troposphere..electrical environment..cloud microphysics ... etc... It's out there to learn about.


Jim

[senorpepr]

Okay folks... back off of Jim. His forecast do have meteorological merit, if you choose to investigate it.

Now, you don't have to agree with Jim's forecast, but to jump all over him and call is forecasts a "shot in the dark" or "bathroom reading". As he has mentioned before, his reasoning is posted. Check it out. Once again, you don't have to agree just like you don't have to agree with any forecast, but at least respect him or don't post anything at all.

[TPACane04]

Senor, I understand your piece, but understand that I (and probably others)have trouble with someone banging this kind of prediction out there and potentially basing it on theories only a PhD can appreciate...we have excellent Mets on here who deal in reality, synoptics, sat presentations, etc. Even Watkins has struggled this week with TD10 and I respect his game as much as anyone on the board.

I could throw something up here that says I am a renowned psychic and predict "such and such" based on a dream I had last night, and would get blasted off the board...

nuff said, I will be back Sunday night to serve or enjoy some yummy crow.

[mahicks]

We will be seeing a tropical depression form with the next couple of days....by 21/21z at the latest within the Atlantic basin. The former remnants of TD10 currently looks like the logical choice.

I am basing this on some matters that I have talked about in the past. A couple of other areas around the globe also seem to be picking up.

I spoke about it yesterday to donsoutherland1 in the Tropical Analysis forum

TD10: Initial thoughts

phpbb2/viewtopics.php?t=70471


Jim

Even though I agree, I give it an extra day or so...AND Yes, I think it will be Ex 10 that does it...

But can you plz use a disclaimer before I need a fire extinguisher to put out the flames??