TD 10...Back Again

[WeatherEmperor]

Can someone please look at 21n 64w and tell me if that is an LLc or an MLc it has a good little twist to it. Thanks

It's a MLC because the low-level clouds are moving WNW all around it.

so you cant see a LLC in this anywhere?

<RICKY>

[Air Force Met]

I personally like to "just to shoot from the hip for kicks".

By the way is this a really long thread. Can you imagine how long it will get if TD10 were to redevelop and strengthen?

Then I guess those who are serious can just ignore you.

[mvtrucking]

Well maybe it is just me but I thought I saw some evidence, I say some evidence of a low level circulation on the sw side. I noticed a curved band of low level cumulus there that seemed to curve toward the presumed center. In any here is the visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I was looking at some sort of spin at 21n - 64w. Probably my eyes and not knowing what I am looking at though

[jabber]

Can someone please look at 21n 64w and tell me if that is an LLc or an MLc it has a good little twist to it. Thanks

I am looking, at first I thought a mid level but know I am not so sure. It might be a LLC. Whatever it is convection is starting to wrap around it. One thing I noticed besides the new model runs being initilized again, was the Navy site earlier dropped the invest/noname 10 of the main page, but now its back. It will be interesting if the NHC makes more of this wave then them did at the 11:30 TWO

[vbhoutex]

Well maybe it is just me but I thought I saw some evidence, I say some evidence of a low level circulation on the sw side. I noticed a curved band of low level cumulus there that seemed to curve toward the presumed center. In any here is the visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I was looking at some sort of spin at 21n - 64w. Probably my eyes and not knowing what I am looking at though

I see what you are looking at. I believe you are looking at two different layers of clouds. The turning at 21,64 is definitely in the mid levels as AFM said though. Everything at the lower levels in that area is moving WNW.

[perk]

Can someone please explain to me why they are starting model runs again.

[Air Force Met]

Can someone please look at 21n 64w and tell me if that is an LLc or an MLc it has a good little twist to it. Thanks

It's a MLC because the low-level clouds are moving WNW all around it.

so you cant see a LLC in this anywhere?

<RICKY>

No...there is not one low level cloud element moving eastward. It's an open wave with a mid level vort max located 200 miles east of the wave axis.

[dgparent]

I personally like to "just to shoot from the hip for kicks".

By the way is this a really long thread. Can you imagine how long it will get if TD10 were to redevelop and strengthen?

I wonder what the record is for length of thread for something that never made it past a TD, and that was for what 12 hours ?
On the Saffir-Simpson scale of threads for nothing this must be a CAT5 !!

[Air Force Met]

Can someone please look at 21n 64w and tell me if that is an LLc or an MLc it has a good little twist to it. Thanks

I am looking, at first I thought a mid level but know I am not so sure. It might be a LLC. Whatever it is convection is starting to wrap around it. One thing I noticed besides the new model runs being initilized again, was the Navy site earlier dropped the invest/noname 10 of the main page, but now its back. It will be interesting if the NHC makes more of this wave then them did at the 11:30 TWO

Not low level. Look at a high res from the GHCC and follow the low level clouds north, south, east and west of those clouds that are spinning.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[frederic79]

Just out of curiousity I examined the historical track of Frederic from 1979 (my namesake). I didn't realize just how little was left of Frederic as it tranversed Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba before regaining TS status just south of Cuba. At this point it had a staggering windspeed of 28 mph. It's amazing this thing even survived the mountainous terrain below it. My point is just that even a very weak circulation can sometimes begin to strengthen in the right environment and given adequate time. From central Cuba to the northern Gulf, Frederic strenghtened from 28 mph to 135 mph because of prime atmospheric and oceanic conditions. While X-TD 10 is all but certain history, history itself tells us stranger things have happened.

[WeatherEmperor]

Can someone please look at 21n 64w and tell me if that is an LLc or an MLc it has a good little twist to it. Thanks

It's a MLC because the low-level clouds are moving WNW all around it.

so you cant see a LLC in this anywhere?

<RICKY>

No...there is not one low level cloud element moving eastward. It's an open wave with a mid level vort max located 200 miles east of the wave axis.

AirforceMet. What do you think the chances are for this thing to develop a LLC. Also can you explain the atmospheric conditions ahead of this system for me please?

<RICKY>

[Thunder44]

Can someone please look at 21n 64w and tell me if that is an LLc or an MLc it has a good little twist to it. Thanks

It's a MLC because the low-level clouds are moving WNW all around it.

so you cant see a LLC in this anywhere?

<RICKY>

No, LLC turning is counter-clockwise. If you see the low-level clouds coming from just one direction it's not a LLC. You only see that at the mid or upper-levels. By the way I deleted my orignial reply, because AFM replied already.

[jabber]

Can someone please look at 21n 64w and tell me if that is an LLc or an MLc it has a good little twist to it. Thanks

I am looking, at first I thought a mid level but know I am not so sure. It might be a LLC. Whatever it is convection is starting to wrap around it. One thing I noticed besides the new model runs being initilized again, was the Navy site earlier dropped the invest/noname 10 of the main page, but now its back. It will be interesting if the NHC makes more of this wave then them did at the 11:30 TWO

Not low level. Look at a high res from the GHCC and follow the low level clouds north, south, east and west of those clouds that are spinning.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Thanks much... I see it now. Will use this in the future.

John

[Air Force Met]

AirforceMet. What do you think the chances are for this thing to develop a LLC. Also can you explain the atmospheric conditions ahead of this system for me please?

<RICKY>

If it can hold together, it has a chance in a couple of days. The upper level winds are forecast to be better and the atmosphere should moisten up some. The ridge will be a little thin...so it might wonder around a little if it develops. If it stays weak...it will slow down but will continue wnw.

[Stormcenter]

I personally like to "just to shoot from the hip for kicks".

By the way is this a really long thread. Can you imagine how long it will get if TD10 were to redevelop and strengthen?

Then I guess those who are serious can just ignore you.

I guess so.

But seriously I personally consider you one the most informative of all the mets on this board. It's too bad your work doesn't allow you to post more often.

[Air Force Met]

But seriously I personally consider you one the most informative of all the mets on this board. It's too bad your work doesn't allow you to post more often.

Thanks...I've got some down time today...which is why I'm a little more active today....plus no tropical activity has us a little bored.

[elysium]

From this point forward I will no longer present forecasts on TD 10. There are many astute, credible non-professional and professional meteorologically knowledgable people here who should be able to form a pretty solid consesus on what is to follow. If at any time there is something important that comes along that isn't being addressed, I will throw in my two cents worth, but I don't envision that happening. I am sure every base will be fully covered.

From this point forward, if there are people living in S. Florida who want to learn perhaps about some of the finer details about hurricane preparation; such things as what items go first off the shelves to boarding up dos and don'ts; I have some knowledge in that area that may save a few dollars on the cost of hurricane preparation.

If you need to know how to measure and properly cut plywood without injuring yourself, I can provide some useful tidbits of knowledge there as well. I am a much better hurricane preparer than I am a hurricane forecaster, and under the provisions outlined by the disclaimer, IF and when hurricane preparation is necessary, I can provide helpful hints.

I want to make it clear that right now I have no knowledge of any hurricane headed for S.Florida, so right now there is no reason to prepare for such. This is only IF a hurricane should head this way, however, this information will be made available in all probability before the issuance of official hurricane warnings, if requested.

[DESTRUCTION5]

From this point forward I will no longer present forecasts on TD 10. There are many astute, credible non-professional and professional meteorologically knowledgable people here who should be able to form a pretty solid consesus on what is to follow. If at any time there is something important that comes along that isn't being addressed, I will throw in my two cents worth, but I don't envision that happening. I am sure every base will be fully covered.

From this point forward, if there are people living in S. Florida who want to learn perhaps about some of the finer details about hurricane preparation; such things as what items go first off the shelves to boarding up dos and don'ts; I have some knowledge in that area that may save a few dollars on the cost of hurricane preparation.

If you need to know how to measure and properly cut plywood without injuring yourself, I can provide some useful tidbits of knowledge there as well. I am a much better hurricane preparer than I am a hurricane forecaster, and under the provisions outlined by the disclaimer, IF and when hurricane preparation is necessary, I can provide helpful hints.

I want to make it clear that right now I have no knowledge of any hurricane headed for S.Florida, so right now there is no reason to prepare for such. This is only IF a hurricane should head this way, however, this information will be made available in all probability before the issuance of official hurricane warnings, if requested.

Man I have to say you a Crazy one...I hate to see you with a Cat 5...

[WeatherEmperor]

Im really curious what the local CBS4 new local met Brian Norcross has to be about this system. He's pretty darn good.

<RICKY>

[SouthFloridawx]

From this point forward I will no longer present forecasts on TD 10. There are many astute, credible non-professional and professional meteorologically knowledgable people here who should be able to form a pretty solid consesus on what is to follow. If at any time there is something important that comes along that isn't being addressed, I will throw in my two cents worth, but I don't envision that happening. I am sure every base will be fully covered.

From this point forward, if there are people living in S. Florida who want to learn perhaps about some of the finer details about hurricane preparation; such things as what items go first off the shelves to boarding up dos and don'ts; I have some knowledge in that area that may save a few dollars on the cost of hurricane preparation.

If you need to know how to measure and properly cut plywood without injuring yourself, I can provide some useful tidbits of knowledge there as well. I am a much better hurricane preparer than I am a hurricane forecaster, and under the provisions outlined by the disclaimer, IF and when hurricane preparation is necessary, I can provide helpful hints.

I want to make it clear that right now I have no knowledge of any hurricane headed for S.Florida, so right now there is no reason to prepare for such. This is only IF a hurricane should head this way, however, this information will be made available in all probability before the issuance of official hurricane warnings, if requested.

Man I have to say you a Crazy one...I hate to see you with a Cat 5...

if being prepared is crazy then lock me up.