TD 10...Back Again

[vbhoutex]

From this point forward I will no longer present forecasts on TD 10. There are many astute, credible non-professional and professional meteorologically knowledgable people here who should be able to form a pretty solid consesus on what is to follow. If at any time there is something important that comes along that isn't being addressed, I will throw in my two cents worth, but I don't envision that happening. I am sure every base will be fully covered.

From this point forward, if there are people living in S. Florida who want to learn perhaps about some of the finer details about hurricane preparation; such things as what items go first off the shelves to boarding up dos and don'ts; I have some knowledge in that area that may save a few dollars on the cost of hurricane preparation.

If you need to know how to measure and properly cut plywood without injuring yourself, I can provide some useful tidbits of knowledge there as well. I am a much better hurricane preparer than I am a hurricane forecaster, and under the provisions outlined by the disclaimer, IF and when hurricane preparation is necessary, I can provide helpful hints.

I want to make it clear that right now I have no knowledge of any hurricane headed for S.Florida, so right now there is no reason to prepare for such. This is only IF a hurricane should head this way, however, this information will be made available in all probability before the issuance of official hurricane warnings, if requested.

Elysium, you need to understand that no one is trying to stop you from posting forecasts. What we are asking is that you not sensationalize and that you be able to provide back up for what you are forecasting. That is all anyone was asking for.

As far as the preparation is concerned, we have a wonderful forum about that also and if you truly do have expertise in that area I would encourage you to join in the discussions in there also. Learn from what you see here, instead of trying to outdo those that really do know what they are talking about. AFM had some great suggestions, suggestions which I myself have followed over the years and learned a lot from doing it that way. I am in no way an expert or a professional, but I have watched the tropics with keen interest for over 45 years, so I do know a lot about what I post about. However, I STILL HAVE A LOT TO LEARN, and I will be the first to admit it. That is one reason I sit back and read more than I post, and that is also the reason I have made some good friends among the professionals here and elsewhere-so I can pick their brains for every bit of info I can get that will better help me understand the weather, much less the tropics. Try it, you'll like it!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

From this point forward I will no longer present forecasts on TD 10. There are many astute, credible non-professional and professional meteorologically knowledgable people here who should be able to form a pretty solid consesus on what is to follow. If at any time there is something important that comes along that isn't being addressed, I will throw in my two cents worth, but I don't envision that happening. I am sure every base will be fully covered.

From this point forward, if there are people living in S. Florida who want to learn perhaps about some of the finer details about hurricane preparation; such things as what items go first off the shelves to boarding up dos and don'ts; I have some knowledge in that area that may save a few dollars on the cost of hurricane preparation.

If you need to know how to measure and properly cut plywood without injuring yourself, I can provide some useful tidbits of knowledge there as well. I am a much better hurricane preparer than I am a hurricane forecaster, and under the provisions outlined by the disclaimer, IF and when hurricane preparation is necessary, I can provide helpful hints.

I want to make it clear that right now I have no knowledge of any hurricane headed for S.Florida, so right now there is no reason to prepare for such. This is only IF a hurricane should head this way, however, this information will be made available in all probability before the issuance of official hurricane warnings, if requested.

Man I have to say you a Crazy one...I hate to see you with a Cat 5...

if being prepared is crazy then lock me up.

Man I'm posting right down the street from you but you and both know This is Jibberish...

[clfenwi]

Addressing something mentioned earlier....

'The ridge' is not in one piece, extending all the way across the ocean, it hasn't 'broken through'; there is still a ridge/trough/ridge setup. The 500 mb analysis shows three distinct anticyclonic circulations, and the 200 mb analysis paints a similar picture (1). The western-most of these anti-cyclones extends is centered over the US and extends over a signifcant part of the GOM and Florida.

The steering current forecasts of recent days showed this setup. It's what made me dream up scenario #2 (2)

(1)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

(2)
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 79#1003979

[SouthFloridawx]

the navy is tracking it

[WeatherEmperor]

wow that is a very nice zoomed up image.

<RICKY>

[cinlfla]

It's a MLC. IF you look carefully...you can see the lower level clouds moving NW on the north side of those clouds and the south side. The low level turning is further west...along 68W. The low level flow along 64W is very strong out of the SE.

Alrighty thanks.......

[Derecho]

There's a weak, but fairly clear, definitely low-level circ at the location of the 18Z NHC model init..

It's northwest of the deep convection. People are being thrown off staring at that.

[jpigott]

if you look at the current long range radar loop out of Puerto Rico you can see some turning (some storms heading in a northwesterly direction and others in a southerly direction). This is likely at mid levels though considering the distance away from the radar

[WeatherEmperor]

There's a weak, but fairly clear, definitely low-level circ at the location of the 18Z NHC model init..

It's northwest of the deep convection. People are being thrown off staring at that.

your correct. If I really stare at it I can see it. Could it be possible though that the center can reform in the middle of that big cluster of storms?

<RICKY>

[Derecho]

Oh this thing is such a weak mess a center could form or reform most anywhere...or not form at all.

[Sanibel]

Thanks Derecho. I gave the coordinates for that center hours ago...

[x-y-no]

12Z European appears to have a weak low over Andros Island at 3 days:



slightly stronger low crossing SFL at 4 days:



opened up into a wave again in the Gulf at 5 days:




Also, note the nice big low heading west across the Atlantic under a monster ridge.

[fci]

Wow, go to work, come home; and see a zillion more posts on Former TD10 and a thread attached to Elysium!
Finally near the end of my reading maybe we have seen Elysium come back down to Earth; at least based on his/her last post.
Let's hope so!!

As much as I like to make fun of the ridiculous posts by Elysium; and I defer to the insightful posts by Air Force Met as to why I use the word "iridculous".... I vow to simply ignore any forecast posts from E that go off the deep end again.

I suggest that ALL follow my lead and simply ignore them, no mention of them, no reply, no bashing, treat them as if they are not there.

If E's posts make sense and are not incredible (see AFM's posts for definition) then the author surely deserves to be acknowledged.

S2K is an awesome site with the Tropical Forums providing the best info anywhere with the quickest presentation of news on the Tropic that you will find anywhere; so lets not allow anyone to disrupt our enjoyment of this amazing resource.

This is my LAST response to Elysium until the time that normalcy takes hold in the author's posts.

Thank you to Air Force Met for his patience and teachings to us amateurs!
Every time I see his name I know that I will learn something.

Thanks for listening (reading) folks.

[jasons2k]

OK, to get back on topic, I have a few questions I'd like for some of you guys to give your 2 cents:

First, the models have been steadily trending westward, even SW with this system. If it does manage to regenerate into something, do you think this will end up in the GOM or head north towards the Bahamas, east of Florida, which was the consensus before it fizzled??

Second, if it does manage to make it into the GOM, do you think it will con't westward or pull north? Reason why I'm asking is that the models won't have a good read on this system until/if it regenrates. It looks like the steering flow in the GOM would push it in a general WNW or NW motion. This has me concerned b/c if it can manage to get into the GOM and refire we may have a TX threat on our hands, based on the expected pattern.

Would you guys agree or should I dismiss it? Thanks!

[x-y-no]

OK, to get back on topic, I have a few questions I'd like for some of you guys to give your 2 cents:

First, the models have been steadily trending westward, even SW with this system. If it does manage to regenerate into something, do you think this will end up in the GOM or head north towards the Bahamas, east of Florida, which was the consensus before it fizzled??

Second, if it does manage to make it into the GOM, do you think it will con't westward or pull north? Reason why I'm asking is that the models won't have a good read on this system until/if it regenrates. It looks like the steering flow in the GOM would push it in a general WNW or NW motion. This has me concerned b/c if it can manage to get into the GOM and refire we may have a TX threat on our hands, based on the expected pattern.

Would you guys agree or should I dismiss it? Thanks!

I think that if it does develop at all, there are two main possibilities ... either it gets to TD or at worst TS status in the Bahamas and hits Florida south of Palm Beach, or it continues into the Gulf as a wave and then develops there.

(see the 12Z Euro frames I posted above as a representative example of these possibilities)

Not impossible, but less likely now is the idea favored over the previous few days by several models of a system moving north fairly close to Florida and developing as it approaches Georgia.

[jasons2k]

OK, to get back on topic, I have a few questions I'd like for some of you guys to give your 2 cents:

First, the models have been steadily trending westward, even SW with this system. If it does manage to regenerate into something, do you think this will end up in the GOM or head north towards the Bahamas, east of Florida, which was the consensus before it fizzled??

Second, if it does manage to make it into the GOM, do you think it will con't westward or pull north? Reason why I'm asking is that the models won't have a good read on this system until/if it regenrates. It looks like the steering flow in the GOM would push it in a general WNW or NW motion. This has me concerned b/c if it can manage to get into the GOM and refire we may have a TX threat on our hands, based on the expected pattern.

Would you guys agree or should I dismiss it? Thanks!

I think that if it does develop at all, there are two main possibilities ... either it gets to TD or at worst TS status in the Bahamas and hits Florida south of Palm Beach, or it continues into the Gulf as a wave and then develops there.

(see the 12Z Euro frames I posted above as a representative example of these possibilities)

Not impossible, but less likely now is the idea favored over the previous few days by several models of a system moving north fairly close to Florida and developing as it approaches Georgia.

Thanks XYNo. Yes, this is what I'm thinking too but I just can't figure out which option this will likely take. I'm very concerned though if it does #2 it won't be pretty.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like some convection is starting to refire on the west side of the system. Lets see if this holds.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like some convection is starting to refire on the west side of the system. Lets see if this holds.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

yeah its very slowly getting better organized. It could really be something at this time tomorrow.

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

Thanks XYNo. Yes, this is what I'm thinking too but I just can't figure out which option this will likely take. I'm very concerned though if it does #2 it won't be pretty.

It's kind of a toss-up right now.

I'd give odds of

40% - it stays a wave - never organizes again.

25% - it develops in the Bahamas and impacts SFL as a TS or TD

25% - it crosses FL as a wave and develops in the Gulf

10% - it doesn't cross FL

EDIT: Fix my numbers to add up to 100

[superfly]

Thanks XYNo. Yes, this is what I'm thinking too but I just can't figure out which option this will likely take. I'm very concerned though if it does #2 it won't be pretty.

It's kind of a toss-up right now.

I'd give odds of

35% - it stays a wave - never organizes again.

25% - it develops in the Bahamas and impacts SFL as a TS or TD

25% - it crosses FL as a wave and develops in the Gulf

10% - it doesn't cross FL

I think what jschlitz was asking was if it crossed into the gulf, where would it go?