TD 10...Back Again

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Most of the hurricane models show it moving westward just south of the keys. But it is already moving slightly north of that by the 18z hurricane model. The Gfs shows a piece of energy moving west-northwest then northwestward into central Florida. I think it could make it into the Gulf of Mexico after the landfall about 25 to 26 north.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[gkrangers]

This is the 12z ECMWF.

It appears to agree with me regarding the GOM...note the low pressure over extreme South Florida.



Now..you'll notice the ridge developing westward..eventually centered over OK/TX/AR/LA. I'm also assuming that is 10L in the central GOM. Not positive, but it does look like the ECMWF carries an area of low pressure westward between days 4 and 7.



So just to say..we may be focusing on the GOM soon.

And if my interpretation is incorrect, I'd appreciate corrections.

[BRADGPSL-FL]

mwatkins,

do you expect it to take the path of the gom? it looks like to me it is headed for se florida anywhere from miami to wpb

[x-y-no]

This is the 12z ECMWF.

It appears to agree with me regarding the GOM...note the low pressure over extreme South Florida.

Wow ... I had some experiences like that back in my teens ...

"look at all the colors, man!"

[Meso]

LOL... My initial thought was "wow, hippy'ish" when I saw that image.. *goes back to watching the posters doing their thing*

[Rainband]

Rotflmao

[Air Force Met]

Yes its a broad LLC to the west of the convection. But the convection appears to be trying to move closer to it.

IT's not a LLC yet. There is some low level vorticity...but if you follow the low level cloud elements on the south side of the spin...you will see they are moving west as well...just not as fast as they are on the northern side. It has a storm relative circulation...but it's not actually closed yet. The clouds on the south side are very slowly creeping westward...but it's not closed yet. Even if it were...it needs to get the convection over it and until the MLC further east falls apart or moves over it...they are going to compete for convection and the MLC will win. It is possible something new could develop closer to the MLC, but time will tell and it can go either way.

[BRADGPSL-FL]

thanks air force met, now if it does develop do you think it would move to the gulf? I think it would move closer towards mia ft. lauderdale

[Air Force Met]

thanks air force met, now if it does develop do you think it would move to the gulf? I think it would move closer towards mia ft. lauderdale

I think it depends on where it develops. If it waits another couple of days...it stands a good chance of slipping under the ridge for a while longer...cross southern FL and then be drawn up northward over the eastern GOM. If it develops in the next 24 hours...it will probably move towards the east coast of FL and meander a while.

[BRADGPSL-FL]

thanks a lot. it doesnt look like it will develop with in the next 24 hours

[Meso]

One thing is for sure though.. If this system developes there are going to be lots of silly looking people... A few people had lines that went something like "This system is dead, it will never re-develope.. Give it up" etc etc.

[mvtrucking]

Also another fact is tropical storm Jerry formed on 22th of August. Then Hit Eastern Florida?

So we got 3 more days....


Also you can clearly see a spin around that area.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

That is an excellent sat view. You can really zoom in and slow the loop down. Very clear.

[Air Force Met]

One thing is for sure though.. If this system developes there are going to be lots of silly looking people... A few people had lines that went something like "This system is dead, it will never re-develope.. Give it up" etc etc.

Well that wasn't me...I learned long time ago...never say never when it comes to tropical weather. Matter of fact...I doubt you will see too many pro-mets saying "won't...no way...never...will for sure...etc"...we've been burned to many times to be that bold.

[x-y-no]

One thing is for sure though.. If this system developes there are going to be lots of silly looking people... A few people had lines that went something like "This system is dead, it will never re-develope.. Give it up" etc etc.

Well that wasn't me...I learned long time ago...never say never when it comes to tropical weather. Matter of fact...I doubt you will see too many pro-mets saying "won't...no way...never...will for sure...etc"...we've been burned to many times to be that bold.

Yep. Even some of us amateurs have learned to be more cautious than that.

[Meso]

haha, ye! Rather go for the safe route It kept bothering me when people would complain cause people had hope in this thing... But I rather sit back and watch than join in the flame wars that take place Oh well, will be sure to be checking on this first thing in the morning.. 1:10 am now though , guess I should rest, being sick and all... Wonder what suprises tomorrow shall hold

[gatorcane]

Yep. Even some of us amateurs have learned to be more cautious than that

I've been calling for Jose to form out of this all along and in fact will go further to say that I think it will be a hurricane before it is all done...conditions will be ideal for it down the road.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What happen when they upgraded weak LLC like Franklin or Gert to tropical cyclone just because they are closed. With a few spots of 25 to 30 mph winds? Standards I see have went sky high.

[artist]

MESO- sorry to hear you are sick - hope you get to feeling better soon!

[artist]

check out the radar loop here - we can kind of see what is going on.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

[gatorcane]

and what story is that?

The shear has lessened and although there is dry air, there is enough moisture for it to work with...