TD 10...Back Again

[WeatherEmperor]

looks decent on the zoomed ramsis visible loop...




Or the loop...(click on the left)
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


Any comments??

I believe that is the system in the EPAC not TD10

<RICKY>

[mahicks]

looks decent on the zoomed ramsis visible loop...




Or the loop...(click on the left)
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


Any comments??

I believe that is the system in the EPAC not TD10

<RICKY>

LOL....no wonder I was puzzled at the difference in rotation between the vis and the infrared!!!......Plz don't flame me everyone, it was an honest mistake!!!

[WeatherEmperor]

I know. It confused the heck out of me too.

<RICKY>

[Tertius]

looks decent on the zoomed ramsis visible loop...




Or the loop...(click on the left)
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


Any comments??

That graphic you posted is not 10, that's a Pacific storm. Check the longitude on the map.

[clfenwi]

the ships brings it to CANE status? has that always been showing that?

It's been doing that more or less consistently since the 00Z run of the 15th.

The big caveat to that is that SHIPS assumes a bona fide 25 knot tropical depression. I.e. the output is valid if and only if there is an actual depression out there. You can't interpret the output to mean that it is saying that whatever is out there is forecast to turn into a hurricane. Instead, what SHIPS is saying is 'Hey, you're telling me there's a tropical depression out there. I've no way of knowing otherwise, so I'll take your word for it. Here's what I think that 'tropical depression' will do'.

[storms in NC]

When did they update it back to TD 10? I don't think they have

[WeatherEmperor]

I really dont know if this system will end up where the models say it will. If you look closely the models initialize the center north of the easternmost tip of Hispanola.

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
(scroll down to TD10)

However, even if, keyword: IF there is a LLC on that exact position, look at where the main convection is located at. Its still left behind on the east side and doesnt look to be moving very fast at all. Perhaps it is possible that a new LLC could form in the middle of that deep convection. Right now since its moving so fast it is possible considering where the models put the center, that the trough could not pick it up so soon. But with this convection being further east away from the center could that allow the trough more time to dig in and curve it north?Thoughts?

<RICKY>

[storms in NC]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 192308
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC WAVE ALONG 35W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS IS A
RATHER LARGE WAVE WITH A CIRCULATION THAT ENCOMPASSES THE ATLC S
OF 21N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDES AND 45W. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAIN AXIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER W THAN EARLIER... NEAR AN INCREASE
IN LOW/MID CLOUDINESS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS SPAWNED FROM
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND IS NOW ALONG 29W BETWEEN 14N AND 23N WITH
A LOW/MID ROTATION NOTED AT THE N END OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS
SUGGESTS THE WAVE WILL BECOME LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME WITH
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS THAT ARE NOT WELL-ALIGNED. THE
FIRST ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE COULD REACH THE E
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW THE WAVE REMAINS WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION PROBABLY IN PART TO VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR PICTURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS S OF 14N E OF 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE E CARIBBEAN
WATER THRU TOMORROW.

W CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED DECENT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW-CLOUDS IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO TSTMS IN THE
EPAC ALSO CORRESPONDING TO THE WAVE LOCATION. WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE OVER W HONDURAS NW THRU GUATEMALA WITH THE WAVE. THIS
WAVE SHOULD BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF TSTMS TO YUCATAN WESTWARD
THRU THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC TOMORROW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 15N17W 9N35W 8N45W 12N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N E OF 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 20W-30W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 30W-48W AND FROM
52W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NOW THAT A MID/UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS... THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING
MOST TSTMS TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE EXCEPT OVER LAND. THIS HIGH
SHOULD BE THE CONTROLLING FORCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
GENERAL ELY FLOW AND ONLY A FEW MARITIME TSTMS SAVE NEAR THE
COAST. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE STORMY AS AN
UPPER LOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER NW CENTRAL AMERICA
AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR YUCATAN... WHICH MEANS LARGE
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE MIGHT UP THE
CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY OVER THE SRN GULF S OF 24N OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO WITH ANOTHER CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER N
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS FROM NW HONDURAS THRU JAMAICA THEN INTO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FEATURE LOOKS TO BE BREAKING UP WITH
A LOW POSSIBLY FORMING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL ROTATION IS NOTED NEAR
16N83W MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 81W-84W. ALTHOUGH IT HAS
NO SURFACE REFLECTION.. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS IT HEADS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TOMORROW AND PERHAPS
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER
ENVIRONMENT THAT ISN'T TOO HOSTILE. THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INLAND BY SUN PERHAPS BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO NW
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FARTHER E... ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH LIES FROM TRINIDAD TO 17N65W AND COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE BROUGHT A FAIRLY WET DAY TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE IS WEST OF THE TROUGH WITH A RATHER LARGE DRY SPOT S
OF 15N TO S AMERICA BETWEEN 70W-80W. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW AND SHOULD
REDUCE THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP ELY FLOW.. TYPICAL
TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SE USA CONTROLS THE WEATHER W OF
75W N OF 25.. GENERALLY DRIER THAN AVERAGE. HOWEVER AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 29N64W HERALDING AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR THE
MONA PASSAGE TO 23N69W. TSTM ACTIVITY IS CONSIDERABLE E OF THE
TROUGH WITH A SCATTERED AREA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 63W-67W.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE TROUGH ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK TOWARD
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A FEW MODELS ALSO HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT
BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AS LONG AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
STAYS TO THE W OF MOST OF THE TSTMS. AN UPPER HIGH IS BEHIND
THE TROUGH... CENTERED NEAR 26N57W. A FEW TSTMS N FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 56W-66W... A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE
NEAR AN OLD SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER E... AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR
27N43W AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH TROUGH AXIS SSW TO 20N45W.
THE GFS SUGGEST THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY W OR NW DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH ONLY A SMALL INTRUSION INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS S OF 20N. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES E OF THE LOW N
OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-40W. OTHERWISE IN THE AREA... AN UPPER HIGH
IS NEAR 19N20W WITH RIDGE AXIS WSW TO 15N40W 12N50W. S OF THE
RIDGE AXIS... FAIRLY MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ALOFT WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DRYING N OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE PRESENT N
OF 9N TO 17N E OF 20W FROM THE NEXT WAVE OVER W AFRICA.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE SPLIT THAN YESTERDAY ON
WHETHER THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP IN THE E ATLC...W ATLC.. OR EVEN
AT ALL. AT THE SURFACE... SURFACE RIDGE LIES FROM 33N45W INTO A
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N59W. THE LARGE BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC SEEMS TO HAVE INCREASED THE TRADES SLIGHTLY N OF
20N BUT WEAKENED THEM CONSIDERABLY S OF 20N E OF 45W. THE
TRADES SHOULD WEAKEN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE WAVE NEARS THE AREA.

$$
BLAKE

[superfly]

nm

[wxman57]

For the upteenth time, you really have to be careful trusting those BAM models in the subtropics. They're not dynamic like the GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, etc. The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are very primitive compared to the dynamic models. They're good for basic guidance in the deep tropics south of the Bermuda high, where the atmosphere doesn't change much. Above 20N, there are fronts/tfofs/ridges moving here and there, and the BAM models don't account for the changing flow patterns. That's why the BAM models took Franklin west across Florida into the Gulf while the dynamic models took Franklin out to sea. The BAM models took Irene westward as well. I woudn't even bother to look at the BAMs now for this system. Check out the better dynamic models in the subtropics.

Note the persistent left bias of the BAMs? They don't see the trof approaching the east coast over the weekend.

[mvtrucking]

00z model plots are out. Graphic to update soon.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

They are mostly on the same page. GOM. Of course its all mute if it doesn't regenerate.

[cycloneye]

For the upteenth time, you really have to be careful trusting those BAM models in the subtropics. They're not dynamic like the GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, etc. The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are very primitive compared to the dynamic models. They're good for basic guidance in the deep tropics south of the Bermuda high, where the atmosphere doesn't change much. Above 20N, there are fronts/tfofs/ridges moving here and there, and the BAM models don't account for the changing flow patterns. That's why the BAM models took Franklin west across Florida into the Gulf while the dynamic models took Franklin out to sea. The BAM models took Irene westward as well. I woudn't even bother to look at the BAMs now for this system. Check out the better dynamic models in the subtropics:

Note the persistent left bias of the BAMs? They don't see the trof approaching the east coast over the weekend:

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

57 in other words if models start to run for wave in eastern atlantic the BAM models are better for that system right?

[jkt21787]

For the upteenth time, you really have to be careful trusting those BAM models in the subtropics. They're not dynamic like the GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, etc. The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are very primitive compared to the dynamic models. They're good for basic guidance in the deep tropics south of the Bermuda high, where the atmosphere doesn't change much. Above 20N, there are fronts/tfofs/ridges moving here and there, and the BAM models don't account for the changing flow patterns. That's why the BAM models took Franklin west across Florida into the Gulf while the dynamic models took Franklin out to sea. The BAM models took Irene westward as well. I woudn't even bother to look at the BAMs now for this system. Check out the better dynamic models in the subtropics:

Note the persistent left bias of the BAMs? They don't see the trof approaching the east coast over the weekend:

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

Good post wxman. Bams just not going to do great here as you exactly pointed out and explained.

Believe me, I know that trough is coming. The forecast highs here by the beginning of the week are a sure sign of it! Can't wait personally!

[wxman57]

For the upteenth time, you really have to be careful trusting those BAM models in the subtropics. They're not dynamic like the GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, etc. The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are very primitive compared to the dynamic models. They're good for basic guidance in the deep tropics south of the Bermuda high, where the atmosphere doesn't change much. Above 20N, there are fronts/tfofs/ridges moving here and there, and the BAM models don't account for the changing flow patterns. That's why the BAM models took Franklin west across Florida into the Gulf while the dynamic models took Franklin out to sea. The BAM models took Irene westward as well. I woudn't even bother to look at the BAMs now for this system. Check out the better dynamic models in the subtropics:

Note the persistent left bias of the BAMs? They don't see the trof approaching the east coast over the weekend

57 in other words if models start to run for wave in eastern atlantic the BAM models are better for that system right?

Right, the BAM models are good for Easterly waves between 10N-15N as they move beneath the Bermuda high. It's a fairly static flow pattern, and they give a good basic track down there.

[Chigger_Lopez]

I dont post a whole lot, but the visible loop shows a decent rotation to my untrained eye. I am a novice but it looks like it is still fighting. I dont know about rapid intensification, but its still in the game.

[mahicks]

I dont post a whole lot, but the visible loop shows a decent rotation to my untrained eye. I am a novice but it looks like it is still fighting. I dont know about rapid intensification, but its still in the game.

Welcome to Storm2K!!!

Glad to have you aboard Chigger..


I think I 'might' see a little rotation around 20n and 65w in the last 2 frames..

It's gonna be a wait and see game

[WeatherEmperor]

For the upteenth time, you really have to be careful trusting those BAM models in the subtropics. They're not dynamic like the GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, etc. The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are very primitive compared to the dynamic models. They're good for basic guidance in the deep tropics south of the Bermuda high, where the atmosphere doesn't change much. Above 20N, there are fronts/tfofs/ridges moving here and there, and the BAM models don't account for the changing flow patterns. That's why the BAM models took Franklin west across Florida into the Gulf while the dynamic models took Franklin out to sea. The BAM models took Irene westward as well. I woudn't even bother to look at the BAMs now for this system. Check out the better dynamic models in the subtropics.

Note the persistent left bias of the BAMs? They don't see the trof approaching the east coast over the weekend.

I dont know if you are talking to me or not, but in case you are talking to me here is my take: For the "upteenth" time I didnt say anything about putting holy faith in those BAM models. Didnt you read my post accurately? Please tell me where I said that. Here is a direct quote from my own post: "But with this convection being further east away from the center could that allow the trough more time to dig in and curve it north?" On a closing note if I do follow a "dynamical" model, I can also look at the GFDL which doesnt curve it north at all. Fact is, it keeps it south and dissipates in in the FL straits.

<RICKY>

[cinlfla]

Right, the BAM models are good for Easterly waves between 10N-15N as they move beneath the Bermuda high. It's a fairly static flow pattern, and they give a good basic track down there.

I just learned something, Thanks for the model lesson

[gkrangers]

Giving the GFDL the time of day is ok.

But if you are going for a westerly track into the GOM....reference the GFS, or ECMWF, which both bring the wave into the GOM. ECMWF more westerly, passing the southern tip of Florida...while the GFS is more NW, ending up in the northeast GOM.

NOGAPS brings a storm up the east coast of FL...and I don't think the UKMET does anything.

[jasons2k]

I don't like they way the models are trending. The longer this thing stays just a blob the better the chances it'll go into the Gulf.

I hope that front pushes down next week, but with it being August, getting a little concerned...I dunno if the westerlies can make it down here just yet.