Hurricane Hilary at EPAC

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

First advisorie for newly formed TD8-E shortly.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ23 KNHC 191435
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
1500Z FRI AUG 19 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.8N 97.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 99.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 95.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 191451
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION
AND CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SINCE
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND
THE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND WILL LIKELY
FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT THE GFDL AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
CLIMATOLOGY.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AS
SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THE LATTER MAKES THE
DEPRESSION A POWERFUL 100-KT HURRICANE. BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE NEARING COOLER WATERS...SO THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
LEVEL OFF.

SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 13.2N 95.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.8N 97.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 14.5N 99.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 15.5N 103.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 17.5N 107.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (EP082005) ON 20050819 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050819 1800 050820 0600 050820 1800 050821 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 97.0W 14.1N 99.4W 14.9N 102.0W 15.7N 104.7W
BAMM 13.4N 97.0W 14.3N 99.8W 15.1N 102.9W 15.8N 106.2W
LBAR 13.4N 97.0W 14.5N 99.7W 15.4N 103.0W 16.4N 106.5W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 48KTS 60KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 48KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050821 1800 050822 1800 050823 1800 050824 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.8N 107.5W 19.1N 112.9W 21.3N 117.8W 22.6N 121.5W
BAMM 16.5N 109.7W 17.0N 116.3W 17.5N 119.3W 19.8N 119.5W
LBAR 17.4N 110.2W 19.4N 117.3W 19.6N 119.0W 21.0N 121.2W
SHIP 71KTS 81KTS 79KTS 76KTS
DSHP 71KTS 81KTS 79KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 97.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 94.2W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 91.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[P.K.]

WTPZ43 KNHC 192031
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS BUT
DEVOID OF AN INNER CONVECTIVE CORE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE REACHING
COOLER WATERS BY DAY 5.

BECAUSE THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS SMALL CIRCULATION CENTERS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MUCH LARGER GYRE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE INITIAL
MOTION. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND A WELL ESTABLISHED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
ON ITS WESTERN PORTION AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY THE AREA. THIS
WOULD RESULT ON A TRACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE.

SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 13.6N 97.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 14.0N 100.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 14.5N 102.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 15.5N 105.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.0W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (EP082005) ON 20050820 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050820 0000 050820 1200 050821 0000 050821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 98.2W 14.2N 100.9W 14.9N 103.6W 15.7N 106.5W
BAMM 13.5N 98.2W 14.4N 101.0W 15.3N 103.8W 16.2N 106.7W
LBAR 13.5N 98.2W 14.3N 101.0W 15.3N 104.1W 16.4N 107.3W
SHIP 30KTS 42KTS 55KTS 65KTS
DSHP 30KTS 42KTS 55KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050822 0000 050823 0000 050824 0000 050825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 109.4W 18.4N 115.2W 19.9N 120.1W 20.2N 123.3W
BAMM 17.0N 110.0W 18.4N 116.1W 18.9N 120.9W 19.0N 122.8W
LBAR 17.4N 110.7W 19.4N 117.1W 19.7N 120.0W 20.7N 121.8W
SHIP 74KTS 78KTS 74KTS 70KTS
DSHP 74KTS 78KTS 74KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 98.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 95.5W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 92.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[clfenwi]

Both SAB and TAFB estimated 30 knots (AFWA estimated 25), so models were initialized with 30 knot intensity.

(deleted redundant model output)

Here's the AFWA message

TPPZ1 KGWC 200030
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E
B. 19/2331Z (70)
C. 13.5N/9
D. 97.3W/9
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T1.0/1.0/STT: S0.0/08HRS -19/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A
DT OF 1.0. FT BASED ON DT, PT AGREES.

AODT: T4.5 (EMBEDDED CNTR CLOUD REGION)

MORALES

[cycloneye]

WTPZ23 KNHC 200233
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
0300Z SAT AUG 20 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 98.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 98.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 98.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.0N 100.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 103.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 108.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 98.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$


[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 30 KT AT 0000Z.
SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND THE CENTER AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN A
CLUSTER SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THERE IS ALSO A WARM SPOT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT IT
IS TOO EARLY TO CALL THIS AN EYE. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION
IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HILARY WITH 35 KT WINDS.

HILARY IS MOVING BETWEEN 280-285 DEGREES AT 13-14 KT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE
PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST FOR
48-72 HR...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS.
THIS TROUGH SHOULD HILARY TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR POSSIBLY EVEN
NORTHWARD. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48-72 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF TRACK MODELS
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 72 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH. THE 120
HR POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD GFS AND THE
MORE EASTWARD UKMET AND ECMWF.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AS THE
STORM IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS CALL FOR HILARY TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM
WATER FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY MOTION OVER COLDER WATER AND
GRADUAL WEAKENING. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL...AN
EXPERIMENTAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 70%
CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HR.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HILARY COULD GET MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON A STRONGER
SYSTEM...CLIMATOLOGY...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOWING A LARGE
ENVELOPE ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.7N 98.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 14.0N 100.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 14.5N 103.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 15.4N 106.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 16.4N 108.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W 60 KT



It has been upgraded to a tropical storm the 8th of the EPAC season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take that Atlantic!!!! Wahoo!!!

[HurricaneBill]

Hilary seems to be in the right spot to become a hurricane. If she stays in that warm area near the Mexican coast. Isn't this where Howard and Javier formed last year?

[wxmann_91]

Yeah this looks to be a real monster of a storm, perhaps Cat 4/5 hurricane if conditions prove to be just right.

[Anonymous]

The cold cloud tops are amazing.

[clfenwi]

Hilary seems to be in the right spot to become a hurricane. If she stays in that warm area near the Mexican coast. Isn't this where Howard and Javier formed last year?

Javier made hurricane at 13.40N 103.60W (got a start further south) and Howard made it at 15.90N 110.00W (started further west)

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... index.html

Here's the SST graphic: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/nepac_sst_oper0.gif

Hilary will be playing in 30-31 C water in the near-mid term.

[P.K.]

WTPZ43 KNHC 200837
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005

HILARY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS WITH INCREASED BANDING FEATURES AND A SMALL CDO-LIKED FEATURE
...WITH TOPS TO -80C AND COLDER...DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...
35 KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...AND
THE SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE THAT HAS FORMED SINCE 0615Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...BASED ON MICROWAVE POSITION
ESTIMATES DURING THE PAST 5 HOURS. THIS MOTION AND INITIAL POSITION
ARE A LITTLE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACKS AND POSITIONS.
OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS MEXICO. THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO COULD BE MORE WESTWARD...BUT THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE 24-72H PERIOD...AND THEN
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER THAT AS A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
ERODES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HILARY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 10-15 KT
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS. USUALLY SUCH
MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO RAPID STRENGTHENING
...BUT A NORMAL INTENSIFICATION RATE OF 20 KT PER 24 HOURS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH SSTS AND VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT HIGHER THAN THE
GFDL...WHICH ONLY BRINGS HILARY UP TO 70 KT IN 84 HOURS.

RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO
ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.7N 100.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 14.0N 102.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.6N 105.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 16.4N 109.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 18.0N 113.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 19.5N 115.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 117.5W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

20/1145 UTC 13.7N 101.4W T3.5/3.5 HILARY -- East Pacific Ocean


She is almost a hurricane as rapid intensification is taking place.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
1500Z SAT AUG 20 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 101.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.3N 104.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.1N 106.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 102.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]