Katrina Strengthening

[jasons2k]

it could easily EXPLODE in the gulf....VERY WARM waters and very low shear.....

That's the very thing that concerns me. I don't think anyone in FL, at least the East Coast, has anything to worry about. The longer this mess just meanders along, the more concerned I get. If it does make it into the GOM, I agree it could organize very quickly, provided the environment remains favorable.

[NateFLA]

I have a hunch that shear will keep this little puppy at bay..

but who knows.

[BocaGirl]

how can you not be nervous about it? It may be small but it appears to be getting its act together...

For your own sake, I hope you're really not all that "nervous" and you're just using that word to get the conversation going. Boca_Chris, check out the stats on Boca Raton and tropical weather events at Hurricane City - http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/bocaraton.htm. According to the site, Boca Raton gets a direct hurricane hit every 22.33 years. Looks like we're okay in 2005.

Remember earlier this season I invited you to join Boca Raton CERT? The invitation still stands. Why not join the Community Emergency Response Team and then you can do something productive regarding hurricanes instead of just worry about them! PIM me for me details.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[WeatherEmperor]

that was a tough one BocaGirl. lol.

<RICKY>

[boca]

Quite the opposite I'm getting excited we need the rain.

[gatorcane]

Thanks Bocagirl....haven't checked our disturbance in like 5 hours...there's still very good convection there....I'm still just as nervous actually....let's remember that between Aug. 15 and Sept 15th S. Florida has had the most hurricane strikes out of any place else in the U.S....so climatology favors this system...

[Trader Ron]

how can you not be nervous about it? It may be small but it appears to be getting its act together...

If you are nervous about this blob, what's going to happen when you have a Cat3 or 4 bearing down on South Florida?

[boca]

The blob is falling apart and not heading to S FL. Dry days the continueing saga.

[boca]

Let me elaborate from the prior post the wave is moving due west and it will run right into Hispanola and fall apart or just traverse the whole island chains South of Florida.

[Steve]

>>Let me elaborate from the prior post the wave is moving due west and it will run right into Hispanola and fall apart or just traverse the whole island chains South of Florida.

Waves don't fall apart when they hit Hispanola. You need a low level circulation in order for it to be interrupted. An impulse itself won't be affected like that.

Anyway, the UK Met is the most interesting solution of the 00z runs closing off a low just south of Florida and moving it WNW up toward the LA coast. It's not making me nervious at all, but it does provide something intersting to watch over the next cuople of days along with the wave emerging from Africa and the energy from the western Caribbean that should be moving into the southern Gulf sometime tomorrow.

Steve

[Scorpion]

Might be something of interest in the straights. At least we wont get any soggy days, bring on the sunshine and the heat !

[gatorcane]

well I'm not as nervous about ex-TD 10 for S. Florida but development is still likely at some point...as long as it moves WNW and stays over water, it should still develop down the road.

[dhweather]

So what's there to be nervous about?

Were it Ivan, Frances, Jeanne, or Charley, well, that's one thing.
An unorganized blob doesn't warrant "worry" at all.

[southerngale]

how can you not be nervous about it? It may be small but it appears to be getting its act together...

Are you really nervous about this wave? If so, why?

It's a disorganized blob of rain and often, it doesn't seem to have much of that. I'm sure the afternoon storm I got earlier provided more excitement and I sat on the porch to watch it. Sure things could change and it could develop. If and then, it might be time for someone to get a little nervous. Watch it, of course. But I wouldn't waste time being nervous now. Save that for a real threat.

[sma10]

how can you not be nervous about it? It may be small but it appears to be getting its act together...

If you are nervous about this blob, what's going to happen when you have a Cat3 or 4 bearing down on South Florida?

I've noticed that the words "nervous" and "frightened" and "concerned" are thrown around an awful lot on weather forums.

It always get me to thinking: at least 99.99% of the people who take the time to JOIN a weather forum are pretty excited about weather, right? Therefore, if someone finds tropical weather 'interesting' and 'exciting,' wouldn't the expected response to a developing disturbance be "interested" and "excited?" I know that's the way I react. Perhaps I'm just funny that way.

It so happens that I know a lot of people who DO get nervous and frightened every time a tropical system approaches. It's just that they don't spend 12 hours a day watching satellite loops and posting at storm2k

[otowntiger]

So what's there to be nervous about?

Were it Ivan, Frances, Jeanne, or Charley, well, that's one thing.
An unorganized blob doesn't warrant "worry" at all.

Here, Here. I agree with you 100%. Getting worried and nervous is definitely going over the top on this one. If you live in south FL and every little blob makes you nervous and worried, then perhaps you should consider another locale.

[Frank P]

yeah I agree, I really don't get nervous until I think that the system has a letimate shot of affecting me.... and it has to be at least a Cat 2 or forecast to become one for me to even worrying .... anything less is no big deal, especially waves that aren't even developed yet.... now excited and interested is another matter.... strong waves can do that for me.... I think the longer you track, the more you learn, the less you worry... but that's just me... forums like this are great leaning tools.... especially with all the input and assessments from the pros.... that's what keeps me coming back for more....

[FloridaDiver]

{snip}We have a wave north of Puerto Rico (ex TD 10) that is getting better organized...{/snip}

Not any more, with every passing day this blob is nothing more than a less than significant rain event, hope no one is getting nervous over this, if so perhaps it's time to push oneself away from the computer a bit and relax.....

[WeatherEmperor]

{snip}We have a wave north of Puerto Rico (ex TD 10) that is getting better organized...{/snip}

Not any more, with every passing day this blob is nothing more than a less than significant rain event, hope no one is getting nervous over this, if so perhaps it's time to push oneself away from the computer a bit and relax.....

Great post. I sure could use a few rain drops from that thing though.

<RICKY>

[ameriwx2003]

Well for the Floridians who want a storm, the 0Z Candian keeps your hopes alive:):)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation