TD 10...Back Again

[bvigal]

I'll post our local discussion, which explains well the situation of the two different areas. Also an interesting following paragraph re: wave coming off Africa.

FXCA62 TJSJ 201054
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
645 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ATTM...PRODUCING
A MOIST SELY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
NE CARIB. THIS HAS INTERACTED ALL NIGHT WITH A SMALL MID LEVEL VORT
CENTER NORTH OF THE ISLAND THAT HAS TRAILED THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 10
BY A FEW DEGREES ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS MID LEVEL VORT
CENTER IS NOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
CONVERGENCE LEADING TO DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO ITS E AND
SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE UPSTREAM TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION TODAY. WESTERLIES ALOFT ABOVE THIS FEATURE...AND MILD
DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY. YESTERDAYS FORECAST
WAS OVERDONE...AS DRIER LOW TO MID MID LEVEL AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...AS DEPICTED BY TNCM 12Z SOUNDING. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL NOT BE THE CASE TODAY...AND DEEPENING MOISTURE LOW THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED...AND SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR HAS
ESTIMATED PERSISTENT BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW WATERS
OVERNIGHT HAVE PRODUCED 8-10 INCHES. TJSJ OBSERVATION AT SUNRISE
SHOWED 80 DEGREES...WITH LOCAL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...REFLECTING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...LEADING TO URBAN AND STREAM
FLOODING...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SELY
LLVL FLOW WOULD SUGGEST THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND NW INTERIOR OF THE
ISLAND TO BE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE HIT AND MISS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
PASSING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. LLVL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IN THE FORM OF SAL
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
TOO LATE TO INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS P.R.

VERY GOOD LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE HAS EXITED AFRICA IN THE PAST 12
HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO LIKE THIS WAVE TO VARYING DEGREES.
THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE BEST WAVES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...AND BEARS
WATCHING FOR THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS BRING A TROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE TO THE VICINITY OF THE NE CARIB FOR NEXT SUN-MON WITH
ANOTHER WELL ORGANIZED WAVE OR LOW FOLLOWING NOT FAR BEHIND. THIS
COMING WEEK MAY THEREFORE YIELD ANOTHER SPURT OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. LET'S ALL BE READY!

[cycloneye]

First of all, it's just about impossible to locate a weak surface circulation on IR satellite imagery. You're not looking at low clouds, for the most part, you're looking at clouds miles above the surface. I am looking at a high-res visible loop and see no evidence of any spin north of the islands. I plotted a series of surface charts from 00Z-12Z and see no evidence of any rotation anywhere. Just ESE-SE winds at 5-15 kts through the region. Pressures there are 1016-1017mb - quite high.

So it appears that all we have here is a moderate tropical wave this morning. It doesn't appear to be any better organized than it was yesterday or the day before. Chances of development are fading fast. Could just bring some rain to Florida in 3-4 days. Time to look east toward the African coast for Jose.

Here are a few images of the new wave:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meteo1.gif

Visible shot:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meteo2.gif

57 a tropical wave that is causing this.



No stong winds at all here only plenty of rain and thunder.

[wxman57]

First of all, it's just about impossible to locate a weak surface circulation on IR satellite imagery. You're not looking at low clouds, for the most part, you're looking at clouds miles above the surface. I am looking at a high-res visible loop and see no evidence of any spin north of the islands. I plotted a series of surface charts from 00Z-12Z and see no evidence of any rotation anywhere. Just ESE-SE winds at 5-15 kts through the region. Pressures there are 1016-1017mb - quite high.

So it appears that all we have here is a moderate tropical wave this morning. It doesn't appear to be any better organized than it was yesterday or the day before. Chances of development are fading fast. Could just bring some rain to Florida in 3-4 days. Time to look east toward the African coast for Jose.

Here are a few images of the new wave:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meteo1.gif

Visible shot:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meteo2.gif

57 a tropical wave that is causing this.



No stong winds at all here only plenty of rain and thunder.

Don't understand your point, cycloneye. Are you asking a question? Yes, it's a tropical wave producing the rain.

[cycloneye]

57 my point is that no organization with this only rain.

[wxman57]

57 my point is that no organization with this only rain.

Oh, yes, that's correct. A rainy day there for you. I think it's about time to give up on this wave. There's still a chance it could spin up in a few days, but those chances are diminishing.

[Air Force Met]

The 6:15 frame just came out of blackout. The 21.6-69.75 center looks better and looks like it just turned slightly more WNW.

Driving me crazy because the lagging convection is deepening while the spiral looks slightly stronger.

WHAT IS KEEPING THE SPIRAL FROM FLARING?

What's keeping it from flaring is there is no center. There is a low level vort...there is some cyclonic turning...but there is no LLC and since there is no LLC...most of the convergence is east of the wave axis.

[Derecho]

I have to say as of 12Z this is the single worst active INVEST I've ever seen.

A couple years ago there was this convectionless semi-swirl in the CPAC that was the previous worst but this one takes the cake.

[Trader Ron]

I have to say as of 12Z this is the single worst active INVEST I've ever seen.

A couple years ago there was this convectionless semi-swirl in the CPAC that was the previous worst but this one takes the cake.

I agree 100%. My eye is on that wave coming off Africa.

[Frank P]

yeah it might look bad but its not getting any worse ATTM.... actually it hints of perhaps a mid level rotation somewhere in the general vicinity of 19.5 and 66.8... the shear is not as bad as it as it once was and the convection is on the increase... is it dead NO... is it going to develop, who knows....

[NastyCat4]

There's NOTHING there but rain--give it up!!! Why are ppl still fixated on former TD 10, when the NHC has completely written it off? Things like that destroy credibility in meteorology. The wave coming off Cape Verde looks far more worthy of watching--that looks like a real possibility.

[TS Zack]

Well, if you look at the TWO, there is no mention of the East Atl Wave and they mention Ex TD 10. If they wrote it completely off, they would not mention it.

[Air Force Met]

There's NOTHING there but rain--give it up!!! Why are ppl still fixated on former TD 10, when the NHC has completely written it off? Things like that destroy credibility in meteorology. The wave coming off Cape Verde looks far more worthy of watching--that looks like a real possibility.

The NHC has not completely written it off...don't put words in their mouth. I can tell you as a met that mets do not write anything off as long as their are showers and a hint of cyclonic turning.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR.

"CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE" does not mean..."Forgetta 'bout it..."

[Frank P]

There's NOTHING there but rain--give it up!!! Why are ppl still fixated on former TD 10, when the NHC has completely written it off? Things like that destroy credibility in meteorology. The wave coming off Cape Verde looks far more worthy of watching--that looks like a real possibility.

basially that what a tropical wave consists of ... rain, and plenty of rain... and that's what we have with exTD 10.... a tropical wave, but its August and anyone that knows anything about the tropics understands that there is always the possibility of tropical waves developing into tropical cyclones in August... so as long as there is an area of convection associated with a tropical wave moving along in the tropics towards the US then I think its only normal to watch and see what, if anything, happens... its not a matter of giving it up... and I'm not saying its going to develop or not... but "give it up" implies that we shouldn't even monitor it or comment on it... its not a question of fixation, it's what people do who are interested in the tropics and cyclone development... I don't know how that can in any way destroy credibility in meterology, that's ludicrous..

[TS Zack]

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS NEAR HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO... AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... AND NORTHWARD OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SLOW
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR.


Conditions becoming marginally favorable for redevelopment.

One thing to note, the convection is becoming more concentrated just North of Puerto Rico. We need something to persist, so lets watch this area.

[ronjon]

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS NEAR HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO... AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... AND NORTHWARD OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SLOW
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR.


Conditions becoming marginally favorable for redevelopment.

One thing to note, the convection is becoming more concentrated just North of Puerto Rico. We need something to persist, so lets watch this area.

There seems to be a broad rotation forming near 19N-67W, north of the Mona Passage, based on the Vis SAT and San Juan RAD. I expect some slow development over the next couple of days - convection is becoming more extensive and persistent and environmental conditions aren't adverse.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[WindRunner]

And "marginally favorable" is better than what they had put down in past TWOs.

[deltadog03]

The reason I am NOT writing this off is because anything and everything can develop this time of year. Also, this looks to head into the gulf, so that makes my radar a little interested...I think someon posted earlier about the Ukmet?? I think? has a closed low south of MSY?

[ronjon]

The reason I am NOT writing this off is because anything and everything can develop this time of year. Also, this looks to head into the gulf, so that makes my radar a little interested...I think someon posted earlier about the Ukmet?? I think? has a closed low south of MSY?

Yeah, 00Z Euro has a closed circulation strengthening in the central GOM in 144 hrs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[boca]

Ronjon welcome to S2k.Its fun on this board.We all need help since theirs 64 pages on a tropical wave.

[gkrangers]

The reason I am NOT writing this off is because anything and everything can develop this time of year. Also, this looks to head into the gulf, so that makes my radar a little interested...I think someon posted earlier about the Ukmet?? I think? has a closed low south of MSY?

Yeah, 00Z Euro has a closed circulation strengthening in the central GOM in 144 hrs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET and Euro are two different models. Just to avoid confusion.

Euro > UKMET, as well.