Significant Tropical Increase on Horizon

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Significant Tropical Increase on Horizon

It seems many are wondering why the Atlantic Basin is so quiet at this time...and some are even saying the season is a "dud". That is anything but the case, and having a 930 mb hurricane aimed at Florida just a month into Hurricane Season, as well as a Category 4 impact on Mexico a week later....I'd hardly call that a dud.

So far, Hurricane Season 2005 has been somewhat similar to Hurricane Season 2004:::

* Both have had three hurricanes by August 20th (ALEX, CHARLEY, DANIELLE in '04----DENNIS, EMILY, IRENE in '05)
* Both have had two majors by August 20th (ALEX, CHARLEY '04----DENNIS, EMILY '05)
* One Major US Landfall by August 20th (CHARLEY '04, Cat 4 Florida----DENNIS '05, Cat 3 Florida)

The one significant difference, is that we have had four more named storms than 2004 had by August 20th, and that number is likely to go up significantly over the next few weeks.

The remnants of TD-10 are still flaring up north of Puerto Rico, and the shear has decreased to an extremely favorable rate, as well as increasing Sea Surface Temperatures to Southern Florida. Therefore, I believe it has a decent shot at becoming Jose, and heading up towards the Florida Keys/Northern Cuba as a Tropical Storm or Hurricane. After that, all eyes will turn to the Gulf of Mexico, where significant deepening could very well occur if the system has an inner core, due to extremely favorable Sea Surface Temperatures.

The tropical wave currently exiting Africa...I'll go as far as to say this will likely become a hurricane "Katrina" and then even a major hurricane as it moves generally west towards the Lesser Antillies. With the dry air beginning to let up, all in all things appear generally favorable for deepening. I don't think we will see a turn until 55-60W if at all. That is still way too early though.

Needless to say, I still think the Atlantic is in for 11 more named storms, 8 more hurricanes, and 5 more major hurricanes before November 30th. Be prepared.

~Mike Naso

PS:: No Video Update today...my dad's 50th B-Day party, I will bring back pics of me chillin with other Naso's and friends!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe the one moving off Africa looks very good right now. In it will likely become a named storm before ex-td 10 will. 10 will likely move just south of the keys. In which once over the Gulf I expect some development. But that system off Africa at around 15 north/18 west. It has developed a large area of banding with convection.

After that who knows.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree regarding that wave moving off Africa. Didn't someone say that the models would be moving that one out to sea though?? I haven't looked at the models myself, so I have no opinion at this time.

[Anonymous]

That's way too early.

[boca]

Mike I think you'll be right.Although its hard to believe it right at the moment,but conditions are always changing and time will tell.I'm hoping the wave north of PR heads towards S FL to bring us much needed rain its too dry and hot.

[TampaFl]

With the Labor Day Holiday weekend fast approaching, there always seems to be one or two hurricanes in the Atlantic. Last year Hurricane Frances was bearing down on the east Coast of Florida, 1985 Hurricane Elena was stalled off the West Coast Of Florida, 1979 Hurricane David was heading for South Florida. Not saying that Florida will be affected again this Labor Day, just that most likely will be a hurricane out in the Atlantic.

Robert

[ohiostorm]

Good analysis. Its going to be a very crazy couple months coming up. I just hope everyone is prepared.

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah we are gonna be able to watch this system for days and days and days. Gonna be good.

<RICKY>

[Steve]

The following post is NOT an official forecast... and is my opinion only.
---------------------------------------------------------
Good post Mike. I think the horizon is closer than other posters have been giving it credit for. We could easily be tracking 1 named storm in the next couple of days and possibly as many as 3. If the NE end of the wave that helped fire off Hillary in the EPAC had been more dominant, we might have seen somethig stronger or even classified heading into the SE Mexican coast today. There was some outflow, but not enough time.

Here are the areas I'm watching now.

1) Energy off the SE Yucatan Peninsula. For any US threat, we'd have to see more turning and weaker easterlies associated with the flow around the High in the SE US. Hillary is also sapping the area. One thing about the EPAC this season though is that most of the energy firing up with systems close to Mexico has been earlier in the day. The night pulses have favored the energy on land and in the Bay of Campeche. There's an outside chance something could be classified when the wave energy around 83W gets entrained into the area. A previous wave that sparked recent convection is moving out front and decoupling from what's behind.

2) ex-10 is still brewing with conditions that seem to be favorable all the way in (wherever in is). Looks like some potential for good outflow if it re-intensifies over the next couple of days. Development in the near term, if any, should be pretty slow at first. After that, all bets are off.

3) Front off the US East Coast. This probably has a less than 5% chance of forming anything tropical, but there is the possibility that 1 or 2 non-tropical lows form along the front. You can see some turning due east of Maine, another hint east of New Jersey and another east of North Carolina.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

4) Wave off the African Coast - This wave has one of the best signatures I've seen all year. I don't have a call either way on early development & recurvature or long tracker. Whatever the course, it looks like a system that's going to get a name.

We'll see what happens.

Steve

[WeatherEmperor]

Very healthy looking cape verde wave indeed Steve. Also does it look to you that this massive trough that is supposed to move to the east coast in a few days, that its not moving south as fast as it was forecast to do? It still looks to be in almost the same location as yesterday.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

I don't see anything to support that right now. The entire basin is weak and the convection is not bursting cold tops. The Mexican systems are anemic. The SAL has dipped into the ITCZ and is drying out everything that touches it.

The only way for your topic title to come true is a change in conditions. In my opinion 2004 was much more moist and favorable in comparison...

[HurricaneGirl]

Yes, Sanibel. That is interesting and true to be the case, I do think.

[Steve]

>>Also does it look to you that this massive trough that is supposed to move to the east coast in a few days, that its not moving south as fast as it was forecast to do?

The trough isn't moving quickly, but with the big dome high over the SE, I'd bet it lifts out rather than sticking around for any long duration.

>>I don't see anything to support that right now. The entire basin is weak and the convection is not bursting cold tops. The Mexican systems are anemic. The SAL has dipped into the ITCZ and is drying out everything that touches it.

It is weak now, but it's only going to take a few sparks to set things off. We're transitioning over the next week plus MJO is lurking.

>>The only way for your topic title to come true is a change in conditions. In my opinion 2004 was much more moist and favorable in comparison...

Depends on what time frame you consider. 2005 was more favorable in June and July while 2004 had slightly more favorable conditions during portions of August. We won't know until November which season was more moist and favorable overall.

Steve

[WeatherEmperor]

Let me help you out a little bit here Steve because I agree with you. This is for those who disagree with Steve. Below here is a link to a map for the SAL and everybody can clearly see that the SAL near the African coast has weakened significantly. Fact is, there is no SAL near the immediate coast of Africa where the strong tropical wave currently is. Take a look at the link I posted below.

<RICKY>

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... k/sal.html

[StormWarning1]

I think it is a stretch, and a big one, to pull a tropical storm or hurricane out of ex TD 10 and say it will be nearing the Florida Keys in a few days.

[WindRunner]

Sanibel, this wave has the coldest tops of any wave I've seen coming off the coast this year! What exactly are you talking about? I'm not trying to start anything, just curious.

Enhanced IR
Shows cloud tops colder than 85kt Irene, well off the coast

[cinlfla]

IMO. I think the wave off of Africa will be Jose not the one north of PR

[ConvergenceZone]

I"m wondering about that too. If the SAL is so strong, then why is the convection so strong with this wave? Usually the waves which have been SAL influenced have lacked strong convection. Not the case with this wave...

I don't put much faith in TD 10, but alot of faith in the Atlantic wave, even if it is a fish. I stsill think it will develop, just may take awhile.

[WeatherEmperor]

I"m wondering about that too. If the SAL is so strong, then why is the convection so strong with this wave? Usually the waves which have been SAL influenced have lacked strong convection. Not the case with this wave...

I don't put much faith in TD 10, but alot of faith in the Atlantic wave, even if it is a fish. I stsill think it will develop, just may take awhile.

Ive given up on TD10 long ago. If some of us spent almost a week discussion a pathetic former TD10, then we can also spent some time talking about this African tropical wave. will be fun.

<RICKY>

[ConvergenceZone]

hehe I agree with ya Ricky. I've never seen so many posts around such an awful looking piece of energy, but I guess that's only because there just isn't thing else to talk about since this wave isn't being mentioned by the NHC quite yet.

I think the chance of the wave becoming ANYTHING is slim to none, but it's still a piece of tropical energy.