Ex TD 10 in the GOM by mid next week?

[Stormcenter]

Well this is an excerpt from the NWS N.O., LA 8-20-05 morning discussion.


MOVING TOWARD PEAK IN TROPICAL SEASON AS SEPT APPROACHES...AND THE
ONLY THING ATTM TO BE WATCHED IS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
NEAR THE EAST END OF HISPANIOLA. GLOBAL MODELS BRING THIS SYSTEM
TOWARD THE COLD FRONT BY WED AND THEN CUT IT OFF IN THE GULF AS
THE MID AND UPPER HIGH BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF IT DURING THE WEEK.
NO SUGGESTIONS ATTM ON WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WITH STEERING CURRENTS
BECOMING ALMOST NON-EXISTANT IF THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT ABLE TO
PICK THE WEAK SYSTEM UP.

[ROCK]

Well this is an excerpt from the NWS N.O., LA 8-20-05 morning discussion.


MOVING TOWARD PEAK IN TROPICAL SEASON AS SEPT APPROACHES...AND THE
ONLY THING ATTM TO BE WATCHED IS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
NEAR THE EAST END OF HISPANIOLA. GLOBAL MODELS BRING THIS SYSTEM
TOWARD THE COLD FRONT BY WED AND THEN CUT IT OFF IN THE GULF AS
THE MID AND UPPER HIGH BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF IT DURING THE WEEK.
NO SUGGESTIONS ATTM ON WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WITH STEERING CURRENTS
BECOMING ALMOST NON-EXISTANT IF THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT ABLE TO
PICK THE WEAK SYSTEM UP.

I think so but no model I have seen developes it once it makes it in or absorbs it in the trough. Who knows but the SST's around here are boiling.... I wouldnt want ex- anything sitting around out there for very long.....

[deltadog03]

and see that makes me wonder....we know things can really blow up around the gulf. I am not saying its gonna happen, but with this heading towards the gulf everyone should just check in on it once in a while

[Cookiely]

NWS Tampa
DURING MID WEEK AND BEYOND THE FORECAST GETS A BIT TRICKY AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF TD #10
MOVING WEST TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. THE 06Z RUN OF THE DGEX SHOWS
THIS FEATURE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY WHERE IT MEANDERS
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE DEEPENING IT. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES WEST THROUGH
THE STRAITS AND INTO THE GULF. THE DGEX SOLUTION LOOKS HIGHLY SUSPECT
AT THIS TIME...SO WILL IGNORE FOR NOW AND LEAN CLOSER TO THE WEAKER
LOOKING GFS WHICH DEPICT GENERAL TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION (PW'S ~2") AND THIS COMBINED
WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL MEAN HIGH END SCATTERED RANGE POPS
~50% FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS. ONGOING GRIDDED
POPS LOOK GOOD...BUT HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SOME TO REFLECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...VERY WARM
85H TEMPS AND HIGH THICKNESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY WITH NIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT ~80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MEX
GUIDANCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND ACCEPTED.


&&

[WeatherEmperor]

NWS Tampa
DURING MID WEEK AND BEYOND THE FORECAST GETS A BIT TRICKY AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF TD #10
MOVING WEST TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. THE 06Z RUN OF THE DGEX SHOWS
THIS FEATURE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY WHERE IT MEANDERS
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE DEEPENING IT. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES WEST THROUGH
THE STRAITS AND INTO THE GULF. THE DGEX SOLUTION LOOKS HIGHLY SUSPECT
AT THIS TIME...SO WILL IGNORE FOR NOW AND LEAN CLOSER TO THE WEAKER
LOOKING GFS WHICH DEPICT GENERAL TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION (PW'S ~2") AND THIS COMBINED
WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL MEAN HIGH END SCATTERED RANGE POPS
~50% FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS. ONGOING GRIDDED
POPS LOOK GOOD...BUT HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SOME TO REFLECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...VERY WARM
85H TEMPS AND HIGH THICKNESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY WITH NIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT ~80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MEX
GUIDANCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND ACCEPTED.


&&

In other words, its unlikely.

<RICKY>

[ROCK]

and see that makes me wonder....we know things can really blow up around the gulf. I am not saying its gonna happen, but with this heading towards the gulf everyone should just check in on it once in a while

I would agree. I just saw the Euro 144hr out (which to say the least) is "WAY OUT THERE" but it did close off the remants and move it into the CGOM. Euro and Canadian picked up the NW Carib system for awhile before backing off on it. It would be interesting to see if any other models start to pick up on the remains of TD 10....

[ronjon]

and see that makes me wonder....we know things can really blow up around the gulf. I am not saying its gonna happen, but with this heading towards the gulf everyone should just check in on it once in a while

I would agree. I just saw the Euro 144hr out (which to say the least) is "WAY OUT THERE" but it did close off the remants and move it into the CGOM. Euro and Canadian picked up the NW Carib system for awhile before backing off on it. It would be interesting to see if any other models start to pick up on the remains of TD 10....

00Z UKMET develops old TD10 in the Fl Straits and deepens it in the central GOM in 144 hrs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

In other words, its unlikely

lol

[gkrangers]

and see that makes me wonder....we know things can really blow up around the gulf. I am not saying its gonna happen, but with this heading towards the gulf everyone should just check in on it once in a while

I would agree. I just saw the Euro 144hr out (which to say the least) is "WAY OUT THERE" but it did close off the remants and move it into the CGOM. Euro and Canadian picked up the NW Carib system for awhile before backing off on it. It would be interesting to see if any other models start to pick up on the remains of TD 10....

Actually, I don't believe the 12z Euro brings the remnants thru the GOM any longer...looks like it stalls it around South Florida. I could be wrong tho. Earlier runs had shown movement into the GOM, however.

[WeatherEmperor]

In other words, its unlikely

lol

boca-chris. i wouldnt laugh just yet. So far this thing hasnt even come close to re-developing for the past 4-5 days like you and most others have said. Just get over it already man. "lol" However some rain is very very very much appreciated.

<RICKY>

[Recurve]

From NWS Key West forecast discussion, Sat. Aug. 20 afternoon:

Code: Select all

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING AND HANDLING FUTURE
MOVEMENT...DEVELOPMENT...OR NON-DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW
EXTENDING N-S OVER HISPANIOLA...WHICH IS RELATED TO THE
LONG-TRAVELED DISTURBANCE THAT AT ONE TIME WAS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NUMBER 10. NAM MODEL APPEARS ERRATIC WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...GFS IS NOT TOTALLY BELIEVABLE BUT WILL BE ADHERED TO
CLOSER THAN OTHER MODELS BASED ON PAST FORECAST CONTINUITY. THE
UKMET ACTUALLY LOOKS REASONABLE WITH REGARD TO THE WEAK ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT FOR THE PERIODS THROUGH 72 HOURS (8 AM EDT
TUE)...BUT ALAS IS NOT GRID-INGEST USABLE.

TONIGHT-MON NIGHT...A LIGHT (10 KT OR LESS) FLOW AT MOST LEVELS FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO 15 THSD FT IS INDICATED FOR THE PERIOD...WITH
SURFACE FLOW AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE STEERING FLOW FROM THE E OR ENE.
THE IS A GENERAL LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT LOWER LEVELS...
WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON OVER-ISLAND SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WITH SOME TENDENCY FOR ENHANCED LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THEN I WILL NOT STRAY
FROM THE CURRENT 40 PCT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD AS
STATED IN ONGOING FORECASTS. MON NIGHT MAY BE A PROBLEM DEPENDING ON
THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW
NEAR HISPANIOLA. EXCEPT FOR THE NAM THAT CURVES ITS WEAK CIRCULATION
NW OVER THE BAHAMAS...OTHER MODELS TAKE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WEST
TO CUBA BY MON NIGHT. MODELS ARE AT LEAST NOT SHOWING LARGE MOISTURE
OR CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS OVER CUBA. I'LL INDICATE A NE TO E
WIND...BUT NOT STRONG...BEING SUSTAINED OVER THE KEYS MON AND MON
NIGHT BASED ON THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR E OR SE.

TUE-WED NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS RUN IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FEW...
SHOWING THAT A LARGE BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SE STATES,
NW FLORIDA, OR THE NE GULF WILL SUDDENLY TURN THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OVER THE
KEYS, OR JUST EAST OF THE KEYS. THE UKMET TAKES IT WEST INTO THE SE
GULF. SINCE THE GFS IS BEING ADHERED TO AT THIS TIME...A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERN WILL BE EXPRESSED FOR THIS TIME FRAME...
AS SHOWN BY THE GFS. WITH THE GFS TAKING THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE KEYS...IT IS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT DRY
SLOT OVER THE KEYS IN THE 850-700 MB LEVEL. IF THAT WERE NOT TO
MATERIALIZE OR IF THE WEAK LOW WERE TO COME OVER THE KEYS...THEN A
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MORE SKY COVER MAY BE REQUIRED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD. 40 PCT POPS WILL BE RETAINED
FOR NOW.

THU-SAT...HIGH UNCERTAINTY IS RAMPANT IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS FORECAST OF SW TO W WINDS...BUT LIGHT...MAY BE QUITE WRONG IF
THE WEAK TROUGH OR LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF RATHER
THAN SPINNING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

[WindRunner]

Look at these models:



Through the straits and, well, we all know what would happen after that.

[WindRunner]

And intensity (latest run available from ColState):



SHIPS keeps developing it as it has for the past week.

[mvtrucking]

and see that makes me wonder....we know things can really blow up around the gulf. I am not saying its gonna happen, but with this heading towards the gulf everyone should just check in on it once in a while

I would agree. I just saw the Euro 144hr out (which to say the least) is "WAY OUT THERE" but it did close off the remants and move it into the CGOM. Euro and Canadian picked up the NW Carib system for awhile before backing off on it. It would be interesting to see if any other models start to pick up on the remains of TD 10....

00Z UKMET develops old TD10 in the Fl Straits and deepens it in the central GOM in 144 hrs


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Looks like it brings it close to La. Has to regenerate first.(Unlikely from what I understand?)

[ROCK]

MV....its got a long way to go from the condition it is in now...

[WeatherEmperor]

MV....its got a long way to go from the condition it is in now...

thats an understatement. lol

<RICKY>