Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#41 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:00 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
Brent wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:Has the makings of another Gilbert

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

It looks like a bad one...

Long-tracker.

Lull cancel.

Hopefully you are being sarcastic Brent....

No need for anyone to agree that this is a Gilbert type of scenario...

True. As long as he fishes he can be as strong as he wants.

<RICKY>

Steve H. · #42 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:02 pm

The Euro still brings this pup to the NE Leewards, with ridge to its north moving in tandem with it. Then an Eastern trough digs, then lifts out. But that's day seven....end of loop :roll:

Will wait for the next run. GFS out to sea at about 55W. UK reaches the western extent of ridge at 60, then stalls. NOGAPS shows both lows(one at 17n, one at 13N currently) developing weakly, the higher latitude goes fishing and the other moves west. That is all at this time :idea:

They will change :wink:

#43 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:04 pm

Steve H. wrote:The Euro still brings this pup to the NE Leewards, with ridge to its north moving in tandem with it. Then an Eastern trough digs, then lifts out. But that's day seven....end of loop Will wait for the next run. GFS out to sea at about 55W. UK reaches the western extent of ridge at 60, then stalls. NOGAPS shows both lows(one at 17n, one at 13N currently) developing weakly, the higher latitude goes fishing and the other moves west. That is all at this time They will change

wait wait do you have some graphics for me to look at? I wanna see that.

<RICKY>

Website · #44 Postby **Brent** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:05 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Hopefully you are being sarcastic Brent....

No need for anyone to agree that this is a Gilbert type of scenario...

Actually... I just said a "bad one". A bad one could be a Cat 5 that doesn't bother anybody... I'm just sick of this depressing, sheared, weak storms that don't do anything.

gkrangers · #45 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:17 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Steve H. wrote:The Euro still brings this pup to the NE Leewards, with ridge to its north moving in tandem with it. Then an Eastern trough digs, then lifts out. But that's day seven....end of loop Will wait for the next run. GFS out to sea at about 55W. UK reaches the western extent of ridge at 60, then stalls. NOGAPS shows both lows(one at 17n, one at 13N currently) developing weakly, the higher latitude goes fishing and the other moves west. That is all at this time They will change

wait wait do you have some graphics for me to look at? I wanna see that.

<RICKY>

This is the 12z ECMWF...97L does not come near the NE Antilles...begins to recurve well away from then.

ConvergenceZone · #46 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:17 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:ah that is the million dollar question. can it maintain itself?

<RICKY>

There is some pretty dry air in the central to west-central Atlantic, stretching all the way west to the Lesser Antilles. That should be watched and condition patterns as well to determine if the dry air will be stubborn and effect newly formed INVEST.97L and other systems.

Here is the still, current water vapor image:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

Certainly is a lot of dry air!

No worries regarding the dry air. All that means is that instead of rapidly racing to hurricane status, it will take it's sweet time and slowly build in intensity as times goes on. Nothing wrong with that

ConvergenceZone · #47 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:20 pm

Sanibel wrote:I think it would be funny if the SAL evaporated it tomorrow...

not going to happen. The convection has held together in spite of the SAL. I think SAL(while it is a negative factor) is over-rated.

#48 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:21 pm

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...HAS MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA EARLIER
TODAY AND IS ABOUT TO PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

10:30 PM TWO for 97L.

#49 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:21 pm

I looked at a SAL graphic map and the SAL is not at the African coast where this wave is. It is further ahead but much weaker then it has been in the past.

<RICKY>

MiamiensisWx · #50 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:22 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:No worries regarding the dry air. All that means is that instead of rapidly racing to hurricane status, it will take it's sweet time and slowly build in intensity as times goes on. Nothing wrong with that

Maybe... still, it's something to monitor.

#51 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:No Tropical Model run yet for 97L but I guess that by the 6:00z run they will come out.

Perhaps...although we probably will see some 0Z models at some point tonight...generally once gets to invest status they go ahead and initialize the models.

It sure is passing the convection test tonight and I thing the center is going to be a couple of degreees south (at least) of where the models were latching onto it yesterday.

MW

ConvergenceZone · #52 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...HAS MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA EARLIER
TODAY AND IS ABOUT TO PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

10:30 PM TWO for 97L.

Notice how it says "west" and not "west-northwest". The dry air may be what keeps this storm from getting too strong too fast and keeps it on a westward path. If the conditions were perfect, it would probably develop rapidly and turn out to sea. As we know, conditions aren't perfect.

wxwatcher91 · #53 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:27 pm

hmm...is it just me or is this thread in for another 200 pages :lol:

gkrangers · #54 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:27 pm

I'm predicting over 250 pages.

#55 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:27 pm

that could be interesting. this thing just has the look of wanting to get very strong.

<RICKY>

gkrangers · #56 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:28 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:that could be interesting. this thing just has the look of wanting to get very strong.

<RICKY>

So did Irene.

jkt21787 · #57 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:29 pm

gkrangers wrote:I'm predicting over 250 pages.

One thing most of us will agree on!

ConvergenceZone · #58 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:30 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:hmm...is it just me or is this thread in for another 200 pages

hehe, I prefer it like this, much easier to read unlike some messageboards where folks create one topic for 10 things relating to the same thing

. I'm loving this board more and more!!

#59 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:31 pm

gkrangers wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:that could be interesting. this thing just has the look of wanting to get very strong.

<RICKY>
So did Irene.

Wasn't Irene an invest for, like, ever?

gkrangers · #60 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:31 pm

Elysium is going to be unbearable with this storm...

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