Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Scorpion]

Half-wishcasting half climatology.

[gkrangers]

Half-wishcasting half climatology.

Climatology supports recurvature, not hitting Florida.

100% -removed-, yes, I said it.

[Scorpion]

How does climo favor recurvature?

[gkrangers]

How does climo favor recurvature?

Most CV storms recurve...its a lot of ocean to cross.

Some do hit the US..but most recurve, especially if they develop this close to Africa.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it might head westward for the next 72 hours. I also give it a 50 percent chance of becoming Jose with int hat time frame. I'm sorry these kinds of systems take alot of time to spin up. I think yes the enviroment is pretty favable.

[Brent]

How does climo favor recurvature?

The farther east it forms... the more likely. Also the stronger it becomes the more likely it'll recurve.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The nhc agrees that its just a strong wave with convection. But needs to be watched.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...HAS MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA EARLIER
TODAY AND IS ABOUT TO PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

[rainstorm]

i have a feeling it may be jose, but with the east pac so active, it may get hit with another round of shear in 72 hours

[gkrangers]

The nhc agrees that its just a strong wave with convection. But needs to be watched.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...HAS MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA EARLIER
TODAY AND IS ABOUT TO PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

Yeah...it is a wave with convection...I don't see anyone disputing that fact.

[ROCK]

How does climo favor recurvature?

Most CV storms recurve...its a lot of ocean to cross.

and it so it begins......INVEST 97L track war ....

[jasons2k]

Well at least this one looks impressive, hopefully it will spin-up nice and fast and then we can go fishing

[gkrangers]

How does climo favor recurvature?

Most CV storms recurve...its a lot of ocean to cross.

and it so it begins......INVEST 97L track war ....

No..I'm not ready for that yet...just don't want to see disinformation spread.

[ConvergenceZone]

Early globals, show fish tendencies. Lets hope if it is a big one, that we can admire it from afar.

throw the globals out the window this early on. I'm not saying that's not a possibility, but the globals have been wrong MANY times when showing fish.

[ConvergenceZone]

How does climo favor recurvature?

The farther east it forms... the more likely. Also the stronger it becomes the more likely it'll recurve.

the dry air will keep it from getting too strong too fast.

[ROCK]

How does climo favor recurvature?

Most CV storms recurve...its a lot of ocean to cross.

and it so it begins......INVEST 97L track war ....

No..I'm not ready for that yet...just don't want to see disinformation spread.

I know...just giving you a hard time .....

[jasons2k]

Early globals, show fish tendencies. Lets hope if it is a big one, that we can admire it from afar.

throw the globals out the window this early on. I'm not saying that's not a possibility, but the globals have been wrong MANY times when showing fish.

Well, they've all been fish so far (Atlantic waves) so I'm riding that horse for now...

[Scorpion]

i have a feeling it may be jose, but with the east pac so active, it may get hit with another round of shear in 72 hours

Yes but we are talking about a 65 kt hurricane in the EPAC that is moving the same direction as 97L. I dont see how it would affect it from that far. We had Howard the same time as Frances last year, and Javier the same time as Ivan, and they did not affect them very much at all.

[ConvergenceZone]

Early globals, show fish tendencies. Lets hope if it is a big one, that we can admire it from afar.

throw the globals out the window this early on. I'm not saying that's not a possibility, but the globals have been wrong MANY times when showing fish.

Well, they've all been fish so far (Atlantic waves) so I'm riding that horse for now...

I think the center will form further south when it develops, keeping this from recurving. Right now they say it's going to maintain a westward track, and of course the longer it keeps on that track, the less chance for recurve.

[ROCK]

Early globals, show fish tendencies. Lets hope if it is a big one, that we can admire it from afar.

throw the globals out the window this early on. I'm not saying that's not a possibility, but the globals have been wrong MANY times when showing fish.

Well, they've all been fish so far (Atlantic waves) so I'm riding that horse for now...

I think the center will form further south when it develops, keeping this from recurving. Right now they say it's going to maintain a westward track, and of course the longer it keeps on that track, the less chance for recurve.

good point...and I agree the center probably will form around 11-13N. My best guess of course. Westward at least for a few days then its anybodys guess what it will do.

[gkrangers]

The GFS builds a big ULL in the central Atlantic by Day 5....creating a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and recurving the storm.

Pretty straightforward if that is the setup.