Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

The high pressure across the North Atlantic will almost certainly not extend all the way from the CV Islands to the Caribbean, as the GFS is suggesting. So 97L, probably Jose by Monday, will very likely be a fish. Slim chance it could be blocked and shoved westward by a second high center in 4-5 days or so, possibly threatening the east U.S. coast - slim.

Now I wouldn't necessarily say that a stronger storm is more likely to recurve. Just the opposite is often true. A very strong hurricane can help to enhance the ridge to its north, keeping it on a more westerly track.

[ConvergenceZone]

The GFS builds a big ULL in the central Atlantic by Day 5....creating a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and recurving the storm.

Pretty straightforward if that is the setup.

of course that's a big IF the ULL develops and IF it's far enough south to pull this wave(or whatever it is by then) up North.


There are a couple of nice looking waves not far behind it. So looks like the action will really be cooking here soon. Right on time!!

[ConvergenceZone]

The high pressure across the North Atlantic will almost certainly not extend all the way from the CV Islands to the Caribbean, as the GFS is suggesting. So 97L, probably Jose by Monday, will very likely be a fish. Slim chance it could be blocked and shoved westward by a second high center in 4-5 days or so, possibly threatening the east U.S. coast - slim.

Now I wouldn't necessarily say that a stronger storm is more likely to recurve. Just the opposite is often true. A very strong hurricane can help to enhance the ridge to its north, keeping it on a more westerly track.

and actually i DO hope it's a fish, because then we can root for the storm increasing in strength without getting attacked . Plus, the way the waves are stacking up across Africa, we need to root for any fish we can get because unfortunately there will be some that won't be fish.

[deltadog03]

WOW!!!!!! some of yall amaze me....already thinking fish.....damn, its barely an invest

[ROCK]

The high pressure across the North Atlantic will almost certainly not extend all the way from the CV Islands to the Caribbean, as the GFS is suggesting. So 97L, probably Jose by Monday, will very likely be a fish. Slim chance it could be blocked and shoved westward by a second high center in 4-5 days or so, possibly threatening the east U.S. coast - slim.

Now I wouldn't necessarily say that a stronger storm is more likely to recurve. Just the opposite is often true. A very strong hurricane can help to enhance the ridge to its north, keeping it on a more westerly track.

but climo suggests this will be a frances track......

couldnt resist....

[superfly]

[jkt21787]

WOW!!!!!! some of yall amaze me....already thinking fish.....damn, its barely an invest

Sorry, but you could just as well say "already thinking Florida...damn, its barely an invest". (sorry to use your original quote as a backdrop for mine)

Point is, its way too early for anything!

[superfly]

A lot of cold cloud tops.

[wxman57]

WOW!!!!!! some of yall amaze me....already thinking fish.....damn, its barely an invest

There does not have to be a storm in place before we can forecast what the upper-level winds will be doing across the Atlatnic. Steering patterns can be identified long before a system develops. And, presently, most global models indicate a large gap between two high pressure areas in the central Atlantic ahead of what quite probably will be Jose in a day or two. That could allow for recurvature well east of the Caribbean. I agree, it's not a guarantee 5 days out, but that's what the models have been indicating for over a week now.

[BUD]

A lot of cold cloud tops.

This thing is going to be a monster!!!!!!

[Swimdude]

This invest looks better than Bret or Gert ever did.

Seriously.

[deltadog03]

yeah, either way...its too early to tell....the ridge looks healthy to me right now...BUT, i havn't really looked at globals

[fci]

WOW!!!!!! some of yall amaze me....already thinking fish.....damn, its barely an invest

Sorry, but you could just as well say "already thinking Florida...damn, its barely an invest". (sorry to use your original quote as a backdrop for mine)

Point is, its way too early for anything!

I say:
- A fish
- It looks like Andrew
- Look out Florida!
- A GOM'r for sure
- Frances and Jeanne reincarnate
- TD 10 all over again
- Bigger than Irene was at this stage
- Smaller than Irene was at this stage
- SAL will doom it
- SAL will NOT doom it
- Ridge is building
- Ridge is weakening

Oh, THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST
IT IS A PARODY
IT IS -removed-
IT IS NOT -removed-

I think I have covered many bases and saved about 37 posts to be made. The thread will still be about 362 pages and I may have eliminated an additional 112.

Let's have fun tracking 97L whatever it does!!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks like its now a Itcz distrabances, or related to one of those western/Eastern Pacific monsoon troughs. It has good inflow from the south but these systems take 2 or 3 days to develop. I do not expect a depresssion out of this intill it can develop a WELL DEFINED LLC. In which it will take alot of time.

[weatherSnoop]

Maybe reduced by 75!

I am not really one to predict or forcast, but a learn ALOT from others.
I have learned to watch and wait!

[Tropicswatcher]

WOW!!!!!! some of yall amaze me....already thinking fish.....damn, its barely an invest

Sorry, but you could just as well say "already thinking Florida...damn, its barely an invest". (sorry to use your original quote as a backdrop for mine)

Point is, its way too early for anything!

I say:
- A fish
- It looks like Andrew
- Look out Florida!
- A GOM'r for sure
- Frances and Jeanne reincarnate
- TD 10 all over again
- Bigger than Irene was at this stage
- Smaller than Irene was at this stage
- SAL will doom it
- SAL will NOT doom it
- Ridge is building
- Ridge is weakening

Oh, THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST
IT IS A PARODY
IT IS -removed-
IT IS NOT -removed-

I think I have covered many bases and saved about 37 posts to be made. The thread will still be about 362 pages and I may have eliminated an additional 112.

Let's have fun tracking 97L whatever it does!!!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

WOW!!!!!! some of yall amaze me....already thinking fish.....damn, its barely an invest

There does not have to be a storm in place before we can forecast what the upper-level winds will be doing across the Atlatnic. Steering patterns can be identified long before a system develops. And, presently, most global models indicate a large gap between two high pressure areas in the central Atlantic ahead of what quite probably will be Jose in a day or two. That could allow for recurvature well east of the Caribbean. I agree, it's not a guarantee 5 days out, but that's what the models have been indicating for over a week now.

and I agree that you are probably right, but I like to go out on a limb and say just the opposite of what everyone else is saying . If it isn't a fish, I hope it develops only into a minimal cane at the most. If it's a fish? CAT 5 BABY!!

[Anonymous]

I'm actually in the midset of a possible Luis-Track

[ConvergenceZone]

WOW!!!!!! some of yall amaze me....already thinking fish.....damn, its barely an invest

Sorry, but you could just as well say "already thinking Florida...damn, its barely an invest". (sorry to use your original quote as a backdrop for mine)

Point is, its way too early for anything!

I say:
- A fish
- It looks like Andrew
- Look out Florida!
- A GOM'r for sure
- Frances and Jeanne reincarnate
- TD 10 all over again
- Bigger than Irene was at this stage
- Smaller than Irene was at this stage
- SAL will doom it
- SAL will NOT doom it
- Ridge is building
- Ridge is weakening

Oh, THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST
IT IS A PARODY
IT IS -removed-
IT IS NOT -removed-

I think I have covered many bases and saved about 37 posts to be made. The thread will still be about 362 pages and I may have eliminated an additional 112.

Let's have fun tracking 97L whatever it does!!!!!

I think you are wrong! I predict 3 summersaults, followed by a direct retreat back to Africa

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks like its now a Itcz distrabances, or related to one of those western/Eastern Pacific monsoon troughs. It has good inflow from the south but these systems take 2 or 3 days to develop. I do not expect a depresssion out of this intill it can develop a WELL DEFINED LLC. In which it will take alot of time.

I'm with you on this Matt. I don't think this will be a depression tomorrow. The overall shape and convection is there, but it will probably be awhile before the circulation establishes itself. Plus, the convection may cycle off and on a couple of times prior to becoming a depression. My best guess will be a depression sometime Monday afternoon or evening.