TD 10...Back Again

[Stormcenter]

ex TD 10 is dead and buried. Lets move on to 97L.

On that, I will agree. 97L should be a TS within 24-36 hours.

so you agree it is not worth watching?? Just curious since some earlier models (havent looked at recent runs) suggested it might make it into the GOM and close it off south of LA.....

Hmmmm something just may perk up again if anything is left if and when it makes into the GOM.
Hey remember this is the tropics ANYTHING is possible.

[fci]

ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

I think the change here is the fact that the NHC is now saying that upper level winds are favorable... this is certainly in ex TD 10 favor... now all that remains to be seen is if it is going to take advantage of the favorable conditions.... maybe, maybe not... but they are still discussing it, and I think its still possible for some kind of development down the road... until it evaporates and is no longer a discernable feature on the sat pixs, its something to monitor.... what happens remains to be seen... I'm not smart enough to predict one way or another...

The question is ... does this thread get to 100 pages before it either develops or dissipates?

Yeah, you wonder what will happen when we really get a significant tropical cyclone to track, imagine a Cat 3 or higher heading towards the SE coast or GOM... all hell will break loose on this board.... hehe can't wait to see those reactions and posts, its gonna be wild.... moderators will have their hands, or more likely, their fingers full...

ya gotta love it.....

Yeah, but when something serious is going on; the scenario you paint above; the posts become more realistic and worthwhile as the BS wanes. People take things more seriously, Pro Mets get on board and things get interesting. TD 10 was just "play time" around here, IMO.

[gkrangers]

For whatever reason.........


00z NOGAPS still develops the wave...and meanders it around the SE FL coast as a TC.

[ConvergenceZone]

TD 10....at this point i'm thinking it will either develop so slowly, watching it will be tiresome and an unneeded waste of time.

If it does develop, I doubt it will do much, and impact maybe South Florida in the short term, then impact somewhere along the Gulfcoast, from SW Florida to SE Texas with some kind of showers and light winds...I just don't see a lot coming from TD 10, and definately not enough stuff to fill 72 pages of forum space lol...anywho, I agree, 97L should be watched, I mean...it's GARGANTUAN...definately the largest wave i've ever seen in my life, much larger by far than many hurricanes, even Ivan. I mean...it's so HUGE!!??!

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

well, I've seen plenty of larger waves, but it is the largest of the season.

[Nimbus]

Just enough vorticity above Hispaniola to make me come back and look at the visibles later.

[Frank P]

Just enough vorticity above Hispaniola to make me come back and look at the visibles later.

yeah and you can discern the rotation on the IR loop attm, and even though this thing looks sooo bad it yet again hints of trying to develop convection in the general area of where the center of the rotation can be found... let the record show that I am NOT a big fan of this pathetic little system, I guess I've become addicted to the spell it has cast upon me and I think the system still deserves watching... the 205 TWD also discusses the rotation of the system...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[wxwatcher91]

EDIT: whoops... I'm tired okay?

[linkerweather]

That was yesterdays run, they haven't been run today

[KatDaddy]

Still could develop according the the 805 TWD

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WIND SHEAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THIS
AREA..

[KatDaddy]

AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N69W
MAKING THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SINCE
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BELOW AT THE
SURFACE LEVEL. EXPECT THE N AND W CARIBBEAN TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Ixolib]

...EXPECT THE N AND W CARIBBEAN TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Interesting...

[Thunder44]

Just enough vorticity above Hispaniola to make me come back and look at the visibles later.

yeah and you can discern the rotation on the IR loop attm, and even though this thing looks sooo bad it yet again hints of trying to develop convection in the general area of where the center of the rotation can be found... let the record show that I am NOT a big fan of this pathetic little system, I guess I've become addicted to the spell it has cast upon me and I think the system still deserves watching... the 205 TWD also discusses the rotation of the system...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

So does that mean TD 10 is not dead? It been proclaimed by people so many times on this board, even some pros, that I'm sure if it exists any shape or form or we are seeing something totally new here.

[Frank P]

Just enough vorticity above Hispaniola to make me come back and look at the visibles later.

yeah and you can discern the rotation on the IR loop attm, and even though this thing looks sooo bad it yet again hints of trying to develop convection in the general area of where the center of the rotation can be found... let the record show that I am NOT a big fan of this pathetic little system, I guess I've become addicted to the spell it has cast upon me and I think the system still deserves watching... the 205 TWD also discusses the rotation of the system...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

So does that mean TD 10 is not dead? It been proclaimed by people so many times on this board, even some pros, that I'm sure if it exists any shape or form or we are seeing something totally new here.

This was the discussion from the NHC last night at 8:05...

THE REMNANTS OF TD 10 ARE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR TURKS/CAICOS ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BUT ARE
WEAKENING WITH TIME. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
THE LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS DISTURBED AREA OF WEATHER HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER IT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS. A FEW OF THE COMPUTER MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOPMENT THIS AREA.. BRINGING IT TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION HAS TO BE CONSIDERED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH. FARTHER N..

reading this discussion one could surmise from a technical viewpoint this area we are now monitoring is not considered TD10, and could be considered a different feature, which just so happened to be in the general area of TD10 as it was developing, and I use the term developing quite loosely in this case... Regardless, for the most part people are looking at this area and still consider it associated with the remants of TD10 because of its close proximity to the former TD

[x-y-no]

This was the discussion from the NHC last night at 8:05...

THE REMNANTS OF TD 10 ARE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR TURKS/CAICOS ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BUT ARE
WEAKENING WITH TIME. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
THE LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS DISTURBED AREA OF WEATHER HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER IT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS. A FEW OF THE COMPUTER MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOPMENT THIS AREA.. BRINGING IT TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION HAS TO BE CONSIDERED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH. FARTHER N..

reading this discussion one could surmise from a technical viewpoint this area we are now monitoring is not considered TD10, and could be considered a different feature, which just so happened to be in the general area of TD10 as it was developing, and I use the term developing quite loosely in this case... Regardless, for the most part people are looking at this area and still consider it associated with the remants of TD10 because of its close proximity to the former TD

Yes, that's what I said yesterday. The very weak remnants of TD10 are well west of the are everybody's looking at to potentially develop.

[HouTXmetro]

Guys, I don't think TD-10 is done just yet. Convection is beggining to fire. It's more consolidated convection. There is a hint of rotation.

[ameriwx2003]

Well.. not sure if one could claim its the remnants of T.D. 10 or not but some models try to develope a storm later in the week near Florida. The Candian model is the strongest with this at the moment but the EURO and the NOGAPS looks to trying to develope something later this week as well.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Frank P]

I can't find any evidance of any type of low level circulation with the wave north of H/DR watching the latest Vis sat presentation loops... does hint of rotation at the mid levels but looks pretty weak at the moment... hard to pinpoint an exact center of the mid level rotation, convection it at least persisting during the morning hours.... and overall moving off towards the wnw ...

[WeatherEmperor]

what will it take for this thing to die out already?

<RICKY>

[artist]

here is the latest model run I can find that shows close to where they are looking now -
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png


doesn't seem too many from this are jumping on the band wagon anymore.

pressures do appear to be dropping someowhat from yesterday in the area though.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Caribbean.shtml

[gkrangers]

12z ECMWF


This is the remnants of TD10...it has a low over east Florida..then moves it west into the GOM as shown below on Day 7.