Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mvtrucking]

Exact scale of 97L:



Source: NOAA METEOSAT7-IR4 08212005 0600UTC & SkeetobiteWeather.com GIS base map

That is a monster wave. Can you imagine a storm that big (CV) getting into the gulf?

[wxman57]

its not even in the atcf file

Perhaps everyone is taking his/her last weekend off in August?

[TampaFl]

WOW!!!

[TampaFl]

Exact scale of 97L:



Source: NOAA METEOSAT7-IR4 08212005 0600UTC & SkeetobiteWeather.com GIS base map

Nice job Skeetobite As this system grows can you keep doing the compariisons on size in relation tto the SE US? This looks like it will be a large system. Keep up the great work.

Robert

[SkeetoBite]

Exact scale of 97L:



Source: NOAA METEOSAT7-IR4 08212005 0600UTC & SkeetobiteWeather.com GIS base map

Nice job Skeetobite As this system grows can you keep doing the compariisons on size in relation tto the SE US? This looks like it will be a large system. Keep up the great work.

Robert

It is likely most of the other convection and clutter will be blown away and we will see the true size of this system once/if it develops further. I can do updates as time allows.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If you look at the latest infra-red imagery of INVEST.97L, it appears that the system, although apparently trying to organize, has lost some of the deep convection it had last night, although it is still fairly healthy.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Also, there is a large area of dry air that covers most of the eastern edge of the Caribbean. It has been sticking around for a couple of days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

The system may likely take a path following the steering currents through that takes it through the area of dry air, weakening the system if the dry air does not moderate.

Also, the current shear chart shows a large area of unfavorable shear over much of Florida and the southeastern U.S., extending eastward over the Atlantic and Bahamas, westward into the Gulf of Mexico, central U.S. and Gulf coast states and southward into the northwest Caribbean. You can clearly see pockets and areas of 20KT, 30KT and even 40KT shear.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

If these conditions stick around, INVEST.97L may have a tough time. That is why we must take this wave, even though it may look impressive, with a portion of salt. It is still early! We need to see how the conditions are for the development for this system over the next several days.

Here is how (so far) things may shape up:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

[Brent]

11:30 TWO

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[MiamiensisWx]

11:30 TWO

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

It will be important, though, to see how conditions pay off during the next two days and, especially, beyond.

[TampaFl]

Exact scale of 97L:



Source: NOAA METEOSAT7-IR4 08212005 0600UTC & SkeetobiteWeather.com GIS base map

Nice job Skeetobite As this system grows can you keep doing the compariisons on size in relation tto the SE US? This looks like it will be a large system. Keep up the great work.

Robert

It is likely most of the other convection and clutter will be blown away and we will see the true size of this system once/if it develops further. I can do updates as time allows.

Thanks. Looking foreward to it when you can.

Robert

[wxwatcher91]

FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING IS
NOTED WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

the quote is from the section that 97L has in the 8am TWD... I know it has already been posted I just want to bring it up again...

I think Matt was correct when he talked about this being mainly an ITCZ storm... 97L has abundant convection however most of it is to the south of the center that the TWD talks about (13N). the dry air will need to disapate a bit more before I put my confidence in this system...

also I have been monitoring loops for hours now... I cant say anything supporting or denying a possible circulation because after all those hours I believe my heads own spinning may be interfering with my better judgement

[wxwatcher91]

dont think this was posted yet...

[Steve H.]

The southern low pressure area is taking the ball, as the NHC expected, and the center appears to be at 11.8N/24.7W. This is heading off towards the west/WNW, probably 275. Should be TD soon, maybe tonight, if they deem it necessary to dub it. That's really not an issue IMO, since is so far out there.

[WeatherEmperor]

This one is gonna take a long time to track the Atlantic.

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

The southern low pressure area is taking the ball, as the NHC expected, and the center appears to be at 11.8N/24.7W. This is heading off towards the west/WNW, probably 275. Should be TD soon, maybe tonight, if they deem it necessary to dub it. That's really not an issue IMO, since is so far out there.

I think I agree with that position.

[WindRunner]

When should we start taking bets on advisory numbers?

[Anonymous]

Where are the model maps?

[Sanibel]

Maybe the SAL on the north side is sapping it and keeping it from curling...

[Steve H.]

No, its there. Kinda near the NE of the convection , but in it.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, probably still too far east in the CV belt.


Dr Gray:

There's not that many storms over Africa right now...

[gkrangers]

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
DUST STILL APPEARS...EAST OF 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 15N
BETWEEN 24W AND 36W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.