Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[vacanechaser]

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
DUST STILL APPEARS...EAST OF 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 15N
BETWEEN 24W AND 36W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

Not a complete discussion about the wave as the writer did not include where is the low center.

I'd assume there still is one...the TWDs seem to be very inconsistent from one issuance to the next.

I will tell you why it is inconsistent... It is the writer... Blake is generally the best... IMO followed by Rhome if I am correct.. It is almost like someone from my NWS office is down there writing it.. Very incomplete most times until one of these other folks get in there... Blake is like Beven and Stewart, he gives you the best picture of whats happening... The others seem like they dont want to be bothered most times... .. Wakefield here in southeast Va is just as bad... Its that gov. worker thing I guess...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm not in the office today, but from what I can see on our limited meteosat imagery that has 1-deg lat/lon lines on it, there could be an LLC up near 17-18N and 26W. That's not far from where the GFS initializes it, but well north of the convection.

wasnt there some talk of another center being down around 12-13N and the other center you mentioned at 17-18N would just sping away NW and die off leaving the one further south to move along the convection?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Navy (NRL) updated the plots and now has the 18:00z position at 12.0n-25.1w.

[WeatherEmperor]

NRL updated the plots and now has the 18:00z position at 12.0n-25.1w.

What of the other LLC that wxman57 mentioned near 17-18N? Any mention of that?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

NRL updated the plots and now has the 18:00z position at 12.0n-25.1w.

What of the other LLC that wxman57 mentioned near 17-18N? Any mention of that?

<RICKY>

All I know is that NRL is following that circulation at 12n-25.1w.

[Derek Ortt]

may have happened a few times many years ago with the navy invests not matching the model ones.

That metwatch does not seem like the NHC atcf file, which is what I use for model guidance

[Anonymous]

NRL updated the plots and now has the 18:00z position at 12.0n-25.1w.

What of the other LLC that wxman57 mentioned near 17-18N? Any mention of that?

<RICKY>

All I know is that NRL is following that circulation at 12n-25.1w.

If it is forming that low...that is concerning

[vacanechaser]

I'm not in the office today, but from what I can see on our limited meteosat imagery that has 1-deg lat/lon lines on it, there could be an LLC up near 17-18N and 26W. That's not far from where the GFS initializes it, but well north of the convection.

You are right about that... Blake mentioned it last night in the 805pm TWD.. But he said that there was a 1009mb low further south near 13N and that he thought the 1008mb low near 18N would die and the low under the convection down near 13 would make it..

Jesse v. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm not in the office today, but from what I can see on our limited meteosat imagery that has 1-deg lat/lon lines on it, there could be an LLC up near 17-18N and 26W. That's not far from where the GFS initializes it, but well north of the convection.

You are right about that... Blake mentioned it last night in the 805pm TWD.. But he said that there was a 1009mb low further south near 13N and that he thought the 1008mb low near 18N would die and the low under the convection down near 13 would make it..

Jesse v. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Correct. I noticed that as well.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN... JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY... BUT IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

The above a segment of the 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook which talks about 97L.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A large tropical wave with "Some" Chance at developing. That sure doe's not sound like something that will be upgraded. Like Any time soon.

[gkrangers]

A large tropical wave with "Some" Chance at developing. That sure doe's not sound like something that will be upgraded. Like Any time soon.

Ok...did you get abducted by aliens or something? Normally you'd be calling a system like this a TS by now...I'm scared.

[ConvergenceZone]

A large tropical wave with "Some" Chance at developing. That sure doe's not sound like something that will be upgraded. Like Any time soon.

true, but they say this alot prior to mentioning "depression". If the convection blows up again tonight/tomorrow, they'll probably say something like "a depression could form in the next couple of days". I don't think they are quite ready to say that yet, but they will be probably by tomorrow .

I'm not looking for a depression until late Monday , but more likely Tuesday. I'm shocked that alot of folks are calling for a depression by tomorrow morning. I think that's way too soon, IMO.

[cycloneye]

What worries me looking it from where I am is if it not organizes farly quickly it may well be a threat to the Lesser Antilles.What the population at the islands want to see is quick development and that will make turn the system more poleward. But being so far right now it is very early to say for sure if this will avoid the lesser antilles or not.The best thing for us who live in the Caribbean is to keep watching how the system evolves in the comming days in other words the waiting game for us.

[Opal storm]

A large tropical wave with "Some" Chance at developing. That sure doe's not sound like something that will be upgraded. Like Any time soon.

Whatever.

This is a very organized wave with greater potential than the previous waves we've had this season.You're usually the one who over hypes these things.

[Brent]

A large tropical wave with "Some" Chance at developing. That sure doe's not sound like something that will be upgraded. Like Any time soon.

Whatever.

This is a very organized wave with greater potential than the previous waves we've had this season.You're usually the one who over hypes these things.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It seems to be elongated area of low pressure. But I think the center is over the Cape verdes near 15/24.5. It doe's have great outflow/inflow to the south. But the LLC is very broad near or over the Cape verdes. You can see the spin in the loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I look at data. If the data/satellite shows a well defined LLC with convection it is alot closer to a cyclone. What we have here is more like a broad Eastern Or western pacific system. In which doe's not have a very well defined LLC. Theres nothing to be scared about?

Also one more thing a LLC maybe forming closer to 12 north(Near the convection) About where the NRL puts it. We will see.

[JTD]

I think I understand exactly what Matt is saying and why but it's irrelevant.

Anyway, the reason I am posting is to respond to something Luis said:

Luis, it is not always (although frequently) the case that stronger storms will turn poleward. As Wxman57 pointed out, stronger systems can "pump" up the ridge above them and therefore stay on a west track longer. Floyd did this somewhat in 1999.

[cycloneye]

I think I understand exactly what Matt is saying and why but it's irrelevant.

Anyway, the reason I am posting is to respond to something Luis said:

Luis, it is not always (although frequently) the case that stronger storms will turn poleward. As Wxman57 pointed out, stronger systems can "pump" up the ridge above them and therefore stay on a west track longer. Floyd did this somewhat in 1999.

Yes there haved been many cases of strong canes making landfall here such as Hugo,Georges,the cat 5 1928 hurricane and many more.But the tendency is for the long trackers when the ridge is not as strong is to move away from the islands especially if they form east of 40w the chance is more higher.

[WeatherEmperor]

is it just me or is our 97L looking a bit weak tonight?

<RICKY>