TD12 forming In the Bahamas?

[artist]

Miami weather discussion was mentioning possible Wed. arrival for our area.

[x-y-no]

Does anyone know if there are wind and/or pressure obs available online from the Turks and Caicos and Great Inogua?

[Rainband]

Well at least I am on vacation this entire week!!!!!!

[x-y-no]

Miami weather discussion was mentioning possible Wed. arrival for our area.

That's a little quick by the model runs I've looked at - they suggest Thursday.

[clfenwi]

Does anyone know if there are wind and/or pressure obs available online from the Turks and Caicos and Great Inogua?

Observations from Turks and Caicos are... infrequent:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MBPV.html

There aren't any official observations available from Great Inagua

[SouthFloridawx]

Miami weather discussion was mentioning possible Wed. arrival for our area.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 221342 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

.UPDATE...12Z MIAMI SOUNDING IS COLDER ALOFT BETWEEN 700 TO 400 MB
AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN BEFORE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...EXPECT GOOD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL AS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THOSE THREATS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO 60 PERCENT ESPECIALLY INLAND IN LINE WITH THE
06Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE PROMISES A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK. 06Z GFS SHOWS CONTINUED VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH COULD MEAN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
OF COURSE...IT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AS WELL.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[frederic79]

Well... I must admit I wrote this off on Friday. Now that the floater is on the BOC for a day or two, it's harder to see it up close. The CMC is interesting in what it shows in 6 days - a well-developed storm in the south-central Gulf. Some SST's are in the 90+ range (93 at Dauphin Island, south of Mobile) and it wouldn't take a slow mover long to deepen. Still, nothing here to be concerned about until we have a bonifide surface low.

[x-y-no]

Does anyone know if there are wind and/or pressure obs available online from the Turks and Caicos and Great Inogua?

Observations from Turks and Caicos are... infrequent:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MBPV.html

There aren't any official observations available from Great Inagua

Thanks!

[gkrangers]

Well... I must admit I wrote this off on Friday. Now that the floater is on the BOC for a day or two, it's harder to see it up close. The CMC is interesting in what it shows in 6 days - a well-developed storm in the south-central Gulf. Some SST's are in the 90+ range (93 at Dauphin Island, south of Mobile) and it wouldn't take a slow mover long to deepen. Still, nothing here to be concerned about until we have a bonifide surface low.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Use that...you can zoom in, much closer than the SSD floaters.

[Steve]

>>Great Inogua

Trying to pronounce that island, I keep visualizing a large totem poll or a monolithic head from Easter Island - neither of which is appropos but worth a mention.

Steve

[artist]

from this link -
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/tci.shtml

Singing in the Rain!
From: "Ger and Joan" <gerandjoan at tciway.tc>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 08:37:48 -0400

Well I was singing in the rain last night at some karaoke...ooops.

Nothing but glorious rain here. My water tank is actually overflowing right now...I could sell water. Anyway, it's great. The place has cooled down wonderfully thank the Lord. The island is soooo green it's beautiful. Especially when we have a reputation for being "dry and dusty"! We LOVE rain in TCI.

J

[frederic79]

Got it. Thanks, gkrangers, for the link.

[Sanibel]

As usual, the second Floater is on open ocean while a questionable system is in the dark...

[jax]

I'll ask them to switch it to the area...

[Frank2]

As mentioned by someone earlier this morning, the WV loop shows a large ULL just to the north of the convection (and moving westward with it), so, per the TWO, any development should be very slow (and explains why the NHC was not very enthusiastic about it), though South Florida may receive some welcome rain from it in a day or two.

Frank

[MWatkins]

One other thing...6 hourly fixes are scheduled for this system starting at 06Z on Wednesday...which is highly unusual...with a preliminary low level invest near 22N 75W this time tomorrow afternoon.

The schedule was released at 12PM...guess the NHC is taking this system seriously.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... OUS42.KNHC

MW

[deltadog03]

thanks for the info!! so, i am assuming that NHC has there eyebrows raised for this? I mean I would too with a strong blocking ridge...hmm

[WeatherEmperor]

Well it is moving very slowly and over warmer waters near the Bahamas so I guess concern is inevitable on it now.

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

thanks for the info!! so, i am assuming that NHC has there eyebrows raised for this? I mean I would too with a strong blocking ridge...hmm

TAFB says possible formation in 36 hours, recon scheduled....good model support...I'd say they are watching.

[frederic79]

No buoys there; how about ship reports or ground observations in the area for pressure drops, etc?