TD12 forming In the Bahamas?

[jabber]

One other thing...6 hourly fixes are scheduled for this system starting at 06Z on Wednesday...which is highly unusual...with a preliminary low level invest near 22N 75W this time tomorrow afternoon.

The schedule was released at 12PM...guess the NHC is taking this system seriously.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... OUS42.KNHC

MW

That does seem unusual... Maybe the super secret FSU model is really cranking it up.

[jabber]

From the NHC 2:05

SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.

[WeatherEmperor]

From the NHC 2:05

SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.

aah and the plot thickens.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

LOL!! when is recon on alert to go?

[P.K.]

Does anyone know if there are wind and/or pressure obs Great Inogua?

Great Inagua Airport has the code MYIG but there don't appear to be any current metars out at the moment. (And none in the last 48 hours)

[gkrangers]

I made a post quite a few days ago regarding the ECMWF and why the GOM, not Florida, should be "worried". Not saying the system, if it develops wouldnt affect the Florida PENINSULA, it would, just not likely as a significant tropical cyclone. HOWEVER...the panhandle would be more at risk. I have a REALLY bad habit of forgetting about the panhandle when I say Florida, sorry.

The ECMWF builds a 500mb ridge centered off the NC/SC coast by day 7. (00z run) The western extent of the ridge runs from South Florida, northwest into Arkansas. As such, the ECMWF makes this disturbance a a LA-FL Panhandle threat, IMO.

Its just a model run...but its been doing this very consistently for a while now.

The 12z from today just came in..and it still develops the low over southeast florida..moves it west into the gom, then towards the panhandle. The free graphics kind of suck, so placement could be off...the 500mb ridge on this 12z run is also further east. It extends more north/south along the US east coast, than it does SE-NW from FL into the southeast.

Anyway....the model has been consistent....and I still think we see a gulf threat at some point.

I don't want to go past "early" speculation until there is actually a cyclone.

In a nutshell..sorry, that may have been confusing and I may have contradicted myself at some point...I think LA east to FL (the whole state) needs to watch.

[vbhoutex]

LOL!! when is recon on alert to go?

Tommorrow and Wednesday

[deltadog03]

LOL!! when is recon on alert to go?

Tommorrow and Wednesday

thanks....well who knows what will happen...we might have to watch it too

[WeatherEmperor]

I made a post quite a few days ago regarding the ECMWF and why the GOM, not Florida, should be "worried". Not saying the system, if it develops wouldnt affect Florida, it would, just not likely as a significant tropical cyclone.

The ECMWF builds a 500mb ridge centered off the NC/SC coast by day 7. The western extent of the ridge runs from South Florida, northwest into Arkansas. As such, the ECMWF makes this disturbance a LA/MS threat based on the 00z run.

Its just a model run...but its been doing this very consistently for a while now.

that is absolutely correct. however if this thing does hit those extremely warm waters off the FL coast that are near 90F, then it could deepen quickly and pose more of a threat to FL then currently seen.

<RICKY>

[Swimdude]

I'll be a steriotypical Houston and sit back, relax, and wishcast.

[Rainband]

very weak steering currents forecast. Can't say where this "system" will end up when it enters the GOM.

[Hurricaneman]

very weak steering currents forecast. Can't say where this "system" will end up when it enters the GOM.

Which means its unpredictable at this point

[vbhoutex]

LOL!! when is recon on alert to go?

Tommorrow and Wednesday

thanks....well who knows what will happen...we might have to watch it too

Even though this has been a roller coaster ride and really not a very exciting one at that, I have never stopped watching this one. It keeps acting like a sneaky snake and raising its head and then sliding back under the "undergrowth" then sticks its' head up again, then....you get the picture. Like any snake I don't trust it!!!

[HeatherAKC]

then it could deepen quickly and pose more of a threat to FL then currently seen.

Maybe this is why the NHC seems a bit more interested in the system this afternoon. Things could get going here very fast, and some may have to prepare quickly...??

[WeatherEmperor]

LOL!! when is recon on alert to go?

Tommorrow and Wednesday

thanks....well who knows what will happen...we might have to watch it too

Even though this has been a roller coaster ride and really not a very exciting one at that, I have never stopped watching this one. It keeps acting like a sneaky snake and raising its head and then sliding back under the "undergrowth" then sticks its' head up again, then....you get the picture. Like any snake I don't trust it!!!

hey stop that. I hate snakes!

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

I made a post quite a few days ago regarding the ECMWF and why the GOM, not Florida, should be "worried". Not saying the system, if it develops wouldnt affect Florida, it would, just not likely as a significant tropical cyclone.

The ECMWF builds a 500mb ridge centered off the NC/SC coast by day 7. The western extent of the ridge runs from South Florida, northwest into Arkansas. As such, the ECMWF makes this disturbance a LA/MS threat based on the 00z run.

Its just a model run...but its been doing this very consistently for a while now.

that is absolutely correct. however if this thing does hit those extremely warm waters off the FL coast that are near 90F, then it could deepen quickly and pose more of a threat to FL then currently seen.

<RICKY>

great posts by both of yall....Its funny, there were some people on here talking about the bermuda-azores high not being very strong this year. Now, usually this is the time where we start thinking about the weakness and etc. But, I sorta have this "gut feeling" that our summer in the south is going out with a bang. I mean that I just have that feeling like the ridge will be much stronger in late summer rather than early summer, if that makes any sence. Cuz if my climo serves me well, we don't have many systems that could ** potentially** take this track correct? that ridge is a strong puppy right now. interesting to say the least and we should yall have atleast 1 eye to it...

[Derek Ortt]

no surprise that NHC mentioned the LLC forming, was mentioned in this thread by the initial poster and confirmed by very close up visible imagery on GARP

not sure if this will develop thoguh during the next couple of days due to very unfavorable upper winds

[x-y-no]

12Z European has the same track idea as the previous several runs, NW through the Bahamas, then WSW across Florida, then NNW again. It appears this run is further east with final landfall (FL panhandle) and keeps it weaker throughout the period.

This is based on the low-res maps from their public site. I'll post detailed images in a couple of hours when they become available.


EDIT: I'm not particularly sold on this track, BTW. I think the GFS idea of moving it WNW across the the Keys or SFL as a wave or weak depression, and then possibly intensifying in the Gulf after that looks more likely than that sharp turn WSW from the norther Bahamas.

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z European has the same track idea as the previous several runs, NW through the Bahamas, then WSW across Florida, then NNW again. It appears this run is further east with final landfall (FL panhandle) and keeps it weaker thoughout the period.

This is based on the low-res maps from their public site. I'll post detailed images in a couple of hours when they become available.

some changes indeed but it still shows pretty much the same thing it has for the past several runs right?

<RICKY>

[ameriwx2003]

very weak steering currents forecast. Can't say where this "system" will end up when it enters the GOM.

Yes and the waters in the Bahamas are Warm. The Waters in the Eastern and Northern Gulf is Bath water.. so any storm moving Slowly in the Gulf has a chance to tap this high octane water:):)