TD 10...Back Again

[HURAKAN]

Also TD 10 is back on NRL.

[Stormcenter]

models are running again:

WHXX01 KWBC 221806
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050822 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050822 1800 050823 0600 050823 1800 050824 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 73.0W 21.4N 74.5W 21.9N 76.1W 22.4N 77.8W
BAMM 21.0N 73.0W 21.5N 74.5W 22.1N 76.1W 22.7N 77.7W
A98E 21.0N 73.0W 21.3N 74.5W 21.7N 76.1W 22.3N 77.9W
LBAR 21.0N 73.0W 21.4N 74.4W 22.2N 76.1W 23.3N 78.0W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050824 1800 050825 1800 050826 1800 050827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 79.7W 23.6N 83.4W 23.2N 86.8W 22.8N 89.8W
BAMM 23.3N 79.3W 23.9N 82.2W 23.6N 84.8W 23.2N 87.2W
A98E 23.0N 80.0W 23.2N 85.4W 22.9N 90.9W 21.7N 94.9W
LBAR 24.5N 79.8W 26.4N 82.3W 26.6N 82.6W 27.8N 81.7W
SHIP 51KTS 65KTS 75KTS 80KTS
DSHP 51KTS 65KTS 75KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 73.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 20.8N LONM12 = 71.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 20.7N LONM24 = 70.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

graphics are up: http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

That would have to be one of the weirdest tracks I have ever seen if it were to pan out. Not likely, IMO.

[Anonymous]

The intensity is concerning. If that 80 kts panned out...then the inner core structure would likely be there...and if conditions are favorable, it could spin up over those boiling waters.

[clfenwi]

models are running again:


graphics are up: http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

That would have to be one of the weirdest tracks I have ever seen if it were to pan out. Not likely, IMO.

Weirder than this? (note the similarity in position)

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

[dwg71]

Interesting that most of these models have it heading for Mexico..

As far as intensity, SHIPS seems to take every system to 70 - 80 KTS in 5 days.

[Astro_man92]

"heavy groan" the remnants of TD 10 need ot do some thing quick because they lost my attention LOOONG ago

[robjay]

Just have to revive this from posts past - anybody want to add to the dog pile?

interesting the different initializations there...

Because there is nothing there. 10 has been dead nearly a week, are we still thinking this is going to develop???
There's a better chance for TC development in Arizona early next week.

Wanna put money on that?

[dwg71]

Just have to revive this from posts past - anybody want to add to the dog pile?

interesting the different initializations there...

Because there is nothing there. 10 has been dead nearly a week, are we still thinking this is going to develop???
There's a better chance for TC development in Arizona early next week.

Wanna put money on that?

Touche', it is only fair to note that they said they were not sure that this is even the remnants of TD10 or not. It's also fair to note, that nothing has developed.

[gkrangers]

The intensity is concerning. If that 80 kts panned out...then the inner core structure would likely be there...and if conditions are favorable, it could spin up over those boiling waters.

SHIPs has taken 10L to a hurricane by Day 4/5 in nearly every single model run since it originated. Even when it was tracking across the Atlantic..it always strenghtened it significantly in Day 4/5.

Realitistic intensity forecasting won't occur till theres actually a system, IMO.

[clfenwi]

HPC's comments in their model diagnostic discussion:

...FEATURE IN VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS...

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOC WITH THE DISTURBANCE ATTM IN THE SERN
BAHAMAS. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE THE RIGHT MOST OUTLIER ATTM
WITH A TRACK THAT IS THRU THE NWRN BAHAMAS BUT WELL OFF THE CTRL
FL E COAST BY 84 HRS. THE GFS/CMC AND UKMET ARE FARTHER TO THE
LEFT AND SHOW A TRACK GENERALL TWD SOUTH FL OR THE FL KEYS BY 84
HRS. ATTM THE GLOBAL MDL CONSENSUS WUD SUGGEST A TRACK MORE TO THE
LEFT. PLS SEE LATEST NHC DISC FOR DETAILS.

[WeatherEmperor]

HPC's comments in their model diagnostic discussion:

...FEATURE IN VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS...

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOC WITH THE DISTURBANCE ATTM IN THE SERN
BAHAMAS. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE THE RIGHT MOST OUTLIER ATTM
WITH A TRACK THAT IS THRU THE NWRN BAHAMAS BUT WELL OFF THE CTRL
FL E COAST BY 84 HRS. THE GFS/CMC AND UKMET ARE FARTHER TO THE
LEFT AND SHOW A TRACK GENERALL TWD SOUTH FL OR THE FL KEYS BY 84
HRS. ATTM THE GLOBAL MDL CONSENSUS WUD SUGGEST A TRACK MORE TO THE
LEFT. PLS SEE LATEST NHC DISC FOR DETAILS.

That explains everything I wanted to know. Thanx.

<RICKY>

[jabber]

I guess the NHC is jumping all over this due to the fact that almost all the models are 'seeing' some degree of development. I gotta say that in my experience when the majority see development, they are usually right at some level.

[NorthGaWeather]

The intensity is concerning. If that 80 kts panned out...then the inner core structure would likely be there...and if conditions are favorable, it could spin up over those boiling waters.

SHIPs has taken 10L to a hurricane by Day 4/5 in nearly every single model run since it originated. Even when it was tracking across the Atlantic..it always strenghtened it significantly in Day 4/5.

Realitistic intensity forecasting won't occur till theres actually a system, IMO.

I don't recall it doing that. I remember looking at some of the early guidance and GFDI was exploding the system, SHIPS was very steady and took it to 60kts in 120hrs several times.

[WeatherEmperor]

The intensity is concerning. If that 80 kts panned out...then the inner core structure would likely be there...and if conditions are favorable, it could spin up over those boiling waters.

SHIPs has taken 10L to a hurricane by Day 4/5 in nearly every single model run since it originated. Even when it was tracking across the Atlantic..it always strenghtened it significantly in Day 4/5.

Realitistic intensity forecasting won't occur till theres actually a system, IMO.

I don't recall it doing that. I remember looking at some of the early guidance and GFDI was exploding the system, SHIPS was very steady and took it to 60kts in 120hrs several times.

Ii think the other guy was correct in that for days and days the models did take TD10 to near hurricane strenght but none of it ever materialized.

<RICKY>

[rainstorm]

one hint from jb today, 1947 new orleans hurricane

[clfenwi]

The intensity is concerning. If that 80 kts panned out...then the inner core structure would likely be there...and if conditions are favorable, it could spin up over those boiling waters.

SHIPs has taken 10L to a hurricane by Day 4/5 in nearly every single model run since it originated. Even when it was tracking across the Atlantic..it always strenghtened it significantly in Day 4/5.

Realitistic intensity forecasting won't occur till theres actually a system, IMO.

I don't recall it doing that. I remember looking at some of the early guidance and GFDI was exploding the system, SHIPS was very steady and took it to 60kts in 120hrs several times.

First model run (when the system was in invest)ran it up to 74 kts:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05081212

First run with the system actually classified a depression ran it up to 61 knots:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05081318

For the next few runs, it showed steady strengthening (but short of hurricane strength). Then the hurricane forecasts resumed again:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05081500

[Mattie]

With regard to the 1947 New Orleans hurricane comment - see this Website - - interesting info - -

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/neworleans.htm

[Stratosphere747]

one hint from jb today, 1947 new orleans hurricane

That's the problem with JB and accuweather...

He is going to hint at the 47 storm and??

This is not even a classified system...VERY amateurish and extremely irresponsible. IMO

[WeatherEmperor]

one hint from jb today, 1947 new orleans hurricane

That's the problem with JB and accuweather...

He is going to hint at the 47 storm and??

This is not even a classified system...VERY amateurish and extremely irresponsible. IMO

thats your typical JB unfortunately.

<RICKY>

[rainstorm]

he doesnt say it will be a cat5. he does say it will hit fla between 26 and 29 north then move into gom