TD12 forming In the Bahamas?

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#61 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:28 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:no surprise that NHC mentioned the LLC forming, was mentioned in this thread by the initial poster and confirmed by very close up visible imagery on GARP

not sure if this will develop thoguh during the next couple of days due to very unfavorable upper winds


Actually... while winds are somewhat unfavorable now, upper level winds down the road towards Florida could be rather favorable. And given the pattern that some of the models make of the system in the Gulf...winds might be favorable there as well. That's far out though. Let's just hope this thing does not have favorable upper level winds in the Gulf...because waters are boiling.
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#62 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:29 pm

lol, the gulf is hot anywhere really....this would be crazy if it just slowly moves...specially WEST
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#63 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:31 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
some changes indeed but it still shows pretty much the same thing it has for the past several runs right?

<RICKY>


Yes, it has been quite consistant. The main differences this run are that it keeps it weak even once it's in the Gulf, and it eventually takes it ashore in Florida instead of Mississippi.
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#64 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:38 pm

gkrangers wrote:I made a post quite a few days ago regarding the ECMWF and why the GOM, not Florida, should be "worried". Not saying the system, if it develops wouldnt affect the Florida PENINSULA, it would, just not likely as a significant tropical cyclone. HOWEVER...the panhandle would be more at risk. I have a REALLY bad habit of forgetting about the panhandle when I say Florida, sorry.

The ECMWF builds a 500mb ridge centered off the NC/SC coast by day 7. (00z run) The western extent of the ridge runs from South Florida, northwest into Arkansas. As such, the ECMWF makes this disturbance a a LA-FL Panhandle threat, IMO.

Its just a model run...but its been doing this very consistently for a while now.

The 12z from today just came in..and it still develops the low over southeast florida..moves it west into the gom, then towards the panhandle. The free graphics kind of suck, so placement could be off...the 500mb ridge on this 12z run is also further east. It extends more north/south along the US east coast, than it does SE-NW from FL into the southeast.

Anyway....the model has been consistent....and I still think we see a gulf threat at some point.

I don't want to go past "early" speculation until there is actually a cyclone.

In a nutshell..sorry, that may have been confusing and I may have contradicted myself at some point...I think LA east to FL (the whole state) needs to watch.


Yeah, I posted myself (it may have been Sat) that I didn't think FL (peninsula) needed to worry to much about this one, it was more of a GOM threat. Getting more concerned esp. with new info. coming out today. I would include TX on the threat list though, I don't see this scooting too far to the north, at least not yet.
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#65 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:42 pm

whoa, ive been away for a while and i come back and see florida panhandle threat....guess i cant go away for anything
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#66 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:46 pm

ivanhater wrote:whoa, ive been away for a while and i come back and see florida panhandle threat....guess i cant go away for anything
no threat yet.
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jax

#67 Postby jax » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:50 pm

Rainband wrote:
ivanhater wrote:whoa, ive been away for a while and i come back and see florida panhandle threat....guess i cant go away for anything
no threat yet.


but looking more and more possible...
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#68 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:53 pm

Not from the latest model run. Looks more like Mexico. :lol:
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#69 Postby TS Zack » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:55 pm

They aren't going to be able to resolve the mid-latitude trough across the Midwest by 120hrs.
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#70 Postby Cookiely » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:55 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:LOL!! when is recon on alert to go?


Tommorrow and Wednesday


thanks....well who knows what will happen...we might have to watch it too :eek:


Even though this has been a roller coaster ride and really not a very exciting one at that, I have never stopped watching this one. It keeps acting like a sneaky snake and raising its head and then sliding back under the "undergrowth" then sticks its' head up again, then....you get the picture. Like any snake I don't trust it!!!

This is a very appropriate analogy regarding TD10 or whatever the remnants are now. :lol:
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#71 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:57 pm

TS Zack wrote:They aren't going to be able to resolve the mid-latitude trough across the Midwest by 120hrs.
Thanks Zack. I thought from what I have been reading and hearing the run seemed odd. BTW Impressive video of you on the news...keep up the Great work. 8-)
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#72 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:57 pm

Rainband wrote:Not from the latest model run. Looks more like Mexico. :lol:


Is there a "Mexico" city in La. or Texas? :lol:
That's where I think this baby (if it develops) is headed.
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#73 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:59 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Rainband wrote:Not from the latest model run. Looks more like Mexico. :lol:


Is there a "Mexico" city in La. or Texas? :lol:
That's where I think this baby (if it develops) is headed.
why am I not surprised. :lol:
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#74 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:01 pm

Rainband wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
Rainband wrote:Not from the latest model run. Looks more like Mexico. :lol:


Is there a "Mexico" city in La. or Texas? :lol:
That's where I think this baby (if it develops) is headed.
why am I not surprised. :lol:


Hey now before you post it I'm not -removed-. :lol:
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#75 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:04 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Rainband wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
Rainband wrote:Not from the latest model run. Looks more like Mexico. :lol:


Is there a "Mexico" city in La. or Texas? :lol:
That's where I think this baby (if it develops) is headed.
why am I not surprised. :lol:


Hey now before you post it I'm not -removed-. :lol:
:wink: Honestly I am on vacation this entire week..so if florida was gonna get a system this year..this would be the perfect time for me. I Think it's gonna track across the southern half of Florida and emerge in the GOM. I hear steering currents are gonna be weak and some earlier models had "it" sitting and spining. Will be interesting to see what evolves.
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#76 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:27 pm

Rainband wrote:Not from the latest model run. Looks more like Mexico. :lol:
The GFS takes the system very far west into the southern central GOM in a few days, before turning it NW towards LA.

Thats probably why the tropical models have the solution they do.
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#77 Postby Recurve » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:33 pm

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Latest steering currents chart for a system that isn't a strong storm:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

Seems to indicate a good chance of a TD moving from the Bahamas toward central to South Florida, then southwestward if it emerges into the Gulf. If the strong high stays near the gulf coast, I'm assuming little chance of anything going up there from South Florida, at least at this time.

I'm sure the panhandle and LA would like to keep that high around if there's any chance of a strong system entering the GOM.
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#78 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:47 pm

000
FXUS62 KMFL 221823
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
223 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONT ACROSS S FLA WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED TO OUR N AND SFC RIDGE OVER C FLA AS WEAK AS IT IS.
MOISTURE HAS REMAINED STATUS QUO BUT ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER 24 HRS AGO. CONVECTION GOT AN EARLY START
THEREFORE AND IS EVEN SENDING OUTFLOW BACK TOWARD THE E CST. DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE INTERFERING HOWEVER WITH THE GENERAL E FLOW AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION HAS NOT YET OCCURRED AND MAY LOWER
AFTERNOON POPS. THE GFS SHOWS AN OLD TROUGH BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE ATL ACROSS S FLA WHICH HELPS EXPLAIN CONVECTION FIRING UP
FROM PALM BEACH TO MYGF AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. IT SHOWS THIS
FEATURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUE AND THEN MYSTERIOUSLY, POOF,
ITS GONE BY WED. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE ODD SO WILL NOT LOWER POPS
LIKE GFS DOES. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH WAVE NOW
MOVING W JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. GFS BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS S FLA
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND BUT THE ETA DEVELOPS A LOW
ALONG THE WAVE AND THEN KEEPS IT TO OUR EAST. WILL KEEP OUR
FORECAST STATUS QUO FOR NOW EXCEPT I DID INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
FOR FRI.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL QUITE LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NEARLY FLAT SEAS CONTINUING. GFS FORMS A LOW ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE AS IT APPROACHES S FLA AND MOVES IT ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND. IT KEEPS WINDS LIGHT HOWEVER SO NO REASON TO INCREASE
THE SPEEDS AT THIS TIME.
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Rainband

#79 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:49 pm

gkrangers wrote:
Rainband wrote:Not from the latest model run. Looks more like Mexico. :lol:
The GFS takes the system very far west into the southern central GOM in a few days, before turning it NW towards LA.

Thats probably why the tropical models have the solution they do.
Zack explained why.
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#80 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:52 pm

The above discussion doesn't exactly sound like the forecaster is too excited about what he sees.

Frank
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