United States dodge a Major Disaster?

[Anonymous]

With TD-11/Jose moving into Mexico...it makes me wonder, what would have happened if it were moving north over very favorable waters???

I have no doubt, this would explode in the past...like many of those "1940's CAT 4 into Texas" storms. Just be thankful this is moving into Mexico. The upper level pattern is dynamic. It was probably a system like this that moved into the Bahamas in 1935, and exploded into that epic hurricane.

I will tell you this though...I don't think former TD-10 is going to come in the Gulf and plow into Veracruz if you know what I mean...

We will never know how big a hurricane this might have been...if it had not been plowing into land.

[wxmann_91]

Good point Floydbuster. But even with minimal tropical storms people can be killed, especially in a poor country like Mexico (Bret I think killed four).

I think this season's going to be either south or out.

[jasons2k]

I agree, if this were moving north it would not be pretty.

But I am concerned about old #10. I concede the *current* progs indicate it may be more of a LA/MS/AL threat, once again, but until the system gets its act together there is no telling, it could be anywhere from Veracruz to Naples, assuming it even makes it into the GOM. But I think this has a much higher chance at a US impact than the previous systems.

[jax]

With TD-11/Jose moving into Mexico...it makes me wonder, what would have happened if it were moving north over very favorable waters???

I have no doubt, this would explode in the past...like many of those "1940's CAT 4 into Texas" storms. Just be thankful this is moving into Mexico. The upper level pattern is dynamic. It was probably a system like this that moved into the Bahamas in 1935, and exploded into that epic hurricane.

I will tell you this though...I don't think former TD-10 is going to come in the Gulf and plow into Veracruz if you know what I mean...

We will never know how big a hurricane this might have been...if it had not been plowing into land.

happens just about every year... if "IF" were a skiff... we'd all be fishing...

[djtil]

lots of ifs..IMO.


if it were moving north, if upper air was very favorable, if it hit a major population center, if, if, if.

not much different than any day from july to october.

[The Big Dog]

What if Camille had moved west over the Yucatan? What if Andrew had recurved? What if Floyd kept moving west? I see what you're saying, but I still don't understand the point of the what-if game -- things that never happened and won't happen.

[dwg71]

lots of ifs..IMO.


if it were moving north, if upper air was very favorable, if it hit a major population center, if, if, if.

not much different than any day from july to october.

He made his point.. i think he will acknowledge its full of "ifs". The tropical season is full of ifs. Luckily for us, there are a lot of ifs and a major hurricane is still relatively a rare event.

[WeatherEmperor]

the world may never know.

<RICKY>

[djtil]

yeah i guess he did. ill head over to an astronomy board and post that if an asteroid hit it would be bad.

[gkrangers]

yeah i guess he did. ill head over to an astronomy board and post that if an asteroid hit it would be bad.

I like this guy.

[ROCK]

yeah i guess he did. ill head over to an astronomy board and post that if an asteroid hit it would be bad.

Good point Mike. COULD have been way worse for us Texans...

[James]

Good point. Whatever the reason, it's fair to consider what could have happened. "What if" is a question that arises after most events. It was a fair enough comment.

I do agree though, with favourable conditions, the system could have done an awful lot if it had had more time over water, IMHO. Thankfully it didn't.

[vbhoutex]

THIS THREAD HAS BEEN CLEANED UP ONCE AGAIN. IF THE SNIPING CONTINUES SUSPENSIONS WILL BE HANDED OUT!!!!

KEEP IT ON THE WEATHER!!!

[Ixolib]

...I will tell you this though...I don't think former TD-10 is going to come in the Gulf and plow into Veracruz if you know what I mean...

Mike - Perhaps you can elaborate on your point as quoted above... I'm wondering what you do mean here. Are you saying you don't think F-TD10 is going to the GOM, or are you saying that it will, but it won't "plow into Veracruz" - thereby leaving the offer that you have other thoughts on its eventual landfall?

[LSU2001]

THIS THREAD HAS BEEN CLEANED UP ONCE AGAIN. IF THE SNIPING CONTINUES SUSPENSIONS WILL BE HANDED OUT!!!!

KEEP IT ON THE WEATHER!!!

Please do!!!!!!
The rudeness of this board has become intolerable.
Tim

[johngaltfla]

I fear our lucky streak will not continue. Remember that the GOM waters off of Florida are prime fuel as late as October to take a 1 to a 4 in nothing flat.

I am not looking forward to September.

[wxwatcher91]

Jose began as TD 11 eight hours ago at 30mph... now Jose is up to 50mph and nearing land... think about what a storm could do when it enters the GOM and travels through the 30C+ waters for 3-5 DAYS and also not even near land... the GOM is ready to bomb a couple storms out

[aerojad]

Is it just me, or has the Texas coastline been getting spared for quite a number of years now? Say, compared to everywhere from Mississippi and east.

[jasons2k]

Is it just me, or has the Texas coastline been getting spared for quite a number of years now? Say, compared to everywhere from Mississippi and east.

Many have noticed, and one of these days our number is up

[Jim Cantore]

lets just be thankful Jose isnt moving north cause if it was those in its path would have major problems

and if it passed through the waters right off the Lousiana coast of about 95 degrees it would make a 10-15mph jump before landfall