Recurve wrote:Looked at the latest vapor loop a lot, here's my attempt to diagram some of the features.
A) Dry air, was diving southward toward the convection, but isn't wrapping or flowing eastward. Seems now to be moving as a mass westward, so the dry slot could reach the eastern islands and Abacos before the convection.
B) A cyclonic circulation, but I can't say at what level; swirl was prounced in vapor loop but without much convection.
C) Where I looked for wrapping convection, didn't see it yet. (D) is the direction of what looks like high outflow from this area.
Like to hear what the more experienced amateurs and pros see in the loop reagrding the development scenarios.
This is the loop I was using (zoomed in):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Good analysis. I believe "B" is the upper-level circulation center, and I think that's what the NAM appears to be latching onto and taking the whole system to the north. But all the other dynamic models identify the system closer to 21N, or just to the west of the tail end of your blue arrow. That blue arrow area is significant, as it indicates a small ridge may be developing over that burst of convection north of the DR. Could be a sign of development.
