Tonights Accu-Weather Summary

[KatDaddy]

The Hurricane Hunters are finding even stronger winds in Tropical
Storm Jose. Maximum winds are now at 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. Jose is located at 19.7 north, 95.7 west, which is 45 miles northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. The storm is tracking westward at about 7 mph, which will result in the center of the storm making landfall late this evening north of Veracruz. The estimated minimum pressure in the storm is 1002 millibars, or 29.59 inches of mercury. Jose may strengthen a little more before making landfall. A tropical storm warning is now in effect from Punta El Lagarto to Cabo Rojo.

The main threat to Mexico from Jose will be excessive rainfall, in some places as much as 6 inches. This will cause flooding in many places and landslides. Strong winds gusting up to 60 mph should mostly stay confined to coastal areas.

Another tropical wave is located from about 18 north, 76 west (near Jamaica) to 26 north, 69 west (north of the Turks and Caicos Islands). It appears that an area of low pressure is forming in the vicinity of 22 north, 69 west, which is just east of Great Inagua Island. Another area of low pressure may be forming as well near the northern end of the wave.

Since the area is in a favorable environment for development, over very warm water, and most computer models are indicating that development is going to occur in this area, a close watch of this area is required. This is a complex situation that will be a challenge to forecast accurately. We can say with certainty at this point that this wave is going to bring an increase in moisture to southern and central Florida starting as early as Wednesday night, and widespread thunderstorm activity will occur in those areas Thursday and Friday, with excessive rainfall a threat. What is less certain right now is exactly where a tropical cyclone will form, if at all, and where it will go once it does form.

There are a number of variables in this situation; the first of which is exactly where a cyclone will form. There appears to be two areas vying for supremacy at the moment, and the winner of that battle will have a significant influence on where a prospective storm will end up. Should the southern area become dominant, then it will most likely cross south Florida, emerge in the Gulf of Mexico, and then head toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Should the northern area become dominant and a storm form there, then central Florida could end up being under the gun eventually, as well as points further north.

The second variable is the strength of upper-level high pressure to the north and northeast of the tropical wave. Computer models indicate that the ridge will retreat toward Texas over the next few days before weakening. Should this ridge of high pressure weaken faster or retreat faster, a developing storm could turn to the right sooner and end up further north. On the other hand, a stronger ridge that moves more slowly would keep the storm further south.

The final variable with this storm is that another tropical wave located along 67 west south of 21 north is approaching quickly. The potential is there for the wave to disrupt development in this area. ON the other hand, if low pressure forms quickly and strengthens in this area over the next couple of days, it could draw the energy associated with the trailing wave into its circulation and help it to strengthen.

The bottom line with this situation is that all with interests along the Gulf Coast and southeast coast, as well as the Bahamas, should monitor this situation carefully, particularly residents of the Florida peninsula. Aside from the potential for heavy rainfall for the middle and end of the week in thunderstorms, a tropical depression or storm could quickly form and strike the area and bring strong winds and a coastal storm surge.

In addition to the full plate that we have with other areas of the tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave and associated surface low pressure located near 16 North, 35 west is showing signs of intensifying and a tropical depression may be forming here as well. This area is moving toward the west-northwest at about 12 knots. This area will be no threat to land in the immediate future, but it could end up threatening Bermuda or the east coast of the United States later next week.

[Rainband]

thanks

[jasons2k]

I have to say, very thorough summary...will be quite interesting

[Rainband]

I have to say, very thorough summary...will be quite interesting

models shifted right. I agree

[deltadog03]

yeah, i agree....the ukmet, euro, and canadian..and the gfs as well are all VERY interesting to me....

[jasons2k]

Well I wouldn't put much stock in the tendencies until we get a center

[Rainband]

Well I wouldn't put much stock in the tendencies until we get a center

agreed.

[deltadog03]

very very true...it will be fun to watch though