TD 10...Back Again

[chadtm80]

Thanks clfenwi! I appreciate the responce

[skysummit]

I believe it will go right across the gulf and into the south Texas/upper Mexico coast. Looking at WV, that High in the gulf looks rather tough.

[LaBreeze]

There's always the possibility that it could move very slowly (which is what I'm hearing from local mets) and the high in the GOM could change in strength by then. We'll have to keep a close watch.

[southerngale]

Seriuosly though, I read JB's column and he said "One of the storms I am now looking at is the 1947 New Orleans storm."

I'd hardly call that a forecast at this point...

I'm glad you bothered to look it up. Amazing how many said that New Orleans was JB's forecast just because rainstorm mentioned his name and the 1947 New Orleans hurricane in the same post.

[gkrangers]

Just for kicks....someone is going to mention the 1935 Florida Keys Labor Day hurricane sooner or later....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 73.4W





ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 23.08.2005 21.2N 73.4W WEAK

12UTC 23.08.2005 22.2N 74.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2005 23.7N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2005 25.2N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2005 26.2N 78.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2005 26.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2005 26.2N 79.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.08.2005 25.5N 80.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2005 25.6N 81.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.08.2005 25.6N 83.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.08.2005 26.2N 84.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.08.2005 27.1N 85.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.08.2005 27.8N 86.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[gkrangers]

UKMET Matt ?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears the surface center/LLC is near 22/74.5. It has gained some convection near it...But it is still staying very disorganized because of the ULL to its north.

[gkrangers]

The 00z Euro tonight is awesome.

Takes the storm north to Cape Canaveral by day 3, then back south to I guess the VRB coast area..then west across the Peninsula, then north towards Tallahassee...but the best part is...on Days 8 and 9 it probably moves the low back out into the Atlantic off the SE coast...

[sma10]

The 00z Euro tonight is awesome.

Takes the storm north to Cape Canaveral by day 3, then back south to I guess the VRB coast area..then west across the Peninsula, then north towards Tallahassee...but the best part is...on Days 8 and 9 it probably moves the low back out into the Atlantic off the SE coast...

Yeah. If the Euro is right, what a MESS for virtually the entire state of Florida. It would appear that the state would be under the influence of the system for at least 4 days..... How many landfalls do you count, gk? I see what seems to be at least a near landfall around St. Lucie at day 4; perhaps a coast hugger near Tampa day 5; the Big Bend day 6; and emerging near the GA coast day 7. Do you read the same?

Edit: Whoops. Re-read your post. Seems you've already answered my questions, gk.

[gkrangers]

The 00z Euro tonight is awesome.

Takes the storm north to Cape Canaveral by day 3, then back south to I guess the VRB coast area..then west across the Peninsula, then north towards Tallahassee...but the best part is...on Days 8 and 9 it probably moves the low back out into the Atlantic off the SE coast...

Yeah. If the Euro is right, what a MESS for virtually the entire state of Florida. It would appear that the state would be under the influence of the system for at least 4 days..... How many landfalls do you count, gk? I see what seems to be at least a near landfall around St. Lucie at day 4; perhaps a coast hugger near Tampa day 5; the Big Bend day 6; and emerging near the GA coast day 7. Do you read the same?

Edit: Whoops. Re-read your post. Seems you've already answered my questions, gk.

The 12z was pretty much the same...and its been very similar the last few days, with the erratic movement around Florida.

Could be a very rainy period for FL over the coming week.

[sma10]

How about the Canadian solution? It splits both balls of convection apart and develops BOTH into cyclones. One going westerly into the Eastern Gulf; the other heading NNW into the Atlantic. Pretty bizarre?

[gkrangers]

How about the Canadian solution? It splits both balls of convection apart and develops BOTH into cyclones. One going westerly into the Eastern Gulf; the other heading NNW into the Atlantic. Pretty bizarre?

Nothing good ever came out of Canada...besides Pamela Anderson....

[Mac]

How about the Canadian solution? It splits both balls of convection apart and develops BOTH into cyclones. One going westerly into the Eastern Gulf; the other heading NNW into the Atlantic. Pretty bizarre?

Nothing good ever came out of Canada...besides Pamela Anderson....

And even that is debatable.

[James]

Apparently recon is going to the system:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY...
WHICH IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[weatherwindow]

am still unconvinced concerning the immediate potential for development.....200 TWD collocates the disturbance with a weak ULL...can't jump on board for development today...at least not until that ULL fills or gets out of the way....comments................rich

[Dave C]

I think it's time to put the floater on area north of Haiti. Would be nice to loop the visable during today. Go Dixiebreeze

[cycloneye]

I would not be surprised if sometime today a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement is issued.

[Thunder44]

Ship Report at 9z near that area.:

MANE 09 22.6 -74.6 160 13.0 - - - 29.82 -0.04

It's location is 22.6N 74.6W. It reports a SSE wind at 13kts, which doesn't indicate a closed surface circulation, but the pressure is dropping at 29.82 inches, or about 1010mb.