TD 10...Back Again

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rockyman
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#1581 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:31 am

cycloneye wrote:I would not be surprised if sometime today a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement is issued.


Wow! That's what I love about the tropics...I went to bed at 11pm with kind of a disorganized mess and I wake up with an organizing system...I agree that an STDS will likely be issued soon...It looks like outflow is improving over the system ("feathers" are starting to form around the edges)...the blob on IR is even beginning to turn cyclonically...I'm very anxious for the first vis loops.
Last edited by rockyman on Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1582 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:35 am

Get ready! Here we go. Joe B will hyped today and I expect a STDS to be issued this morning. Katrina on the way
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#1583 Postby Duffy » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:44 am

will they keep it as TD 10?
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#1584 Postby weatherwindow » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:52 am

with the continuing referrals to xTD 10 in the so many products, ie, TWD, TWO, modelling, i certainly think it will be 10...but not for long :D ...dare i say katrina................rich
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cycloneye
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#1585 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:05 am

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N77W NE OVER E CUBA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 27N72W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT PARTICULARLY SHARP...AND THE SYSTEM IS COLLOCATED BENEATH
A MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N73W WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE
MOVING W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRIMARILY W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS TO THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND TWO LARGE AREAS SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W TO 22N73W NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND A SECOND AREA WITHIN 120 NM NM OF LINE FROM 27N72W
TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE UPPER LOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE
N...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WITH THE
LOW SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


8:05 AM Special Feature Discussion above.
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Re: time

#1586 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:25 am

Dave C wrote:I think it's time to put the floater on area north of Haiti. Would be nice to loop the visable during today. :wink: Go Dixiebreeze :D


If you want a vis loop that is updated twice as much...and is a lot better resolution...use the GHCC...not the SSD. SSd is every 30 minutes...as is the GHCC...but they usually send it into rapid scan mode with something is out there. Sometimes it's every 15 minutes...and sometimes every 5-7 minutes. Much better than the SSD page.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
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#1587 Postby boca » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:27 am

It seems like the system in the Bahamas is strentghening theirs a lot more colder cloud tops out their and some hint of banding,but its not moving much.
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#1588 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:38 am

boca wrote:It seems like the system in the Bahamas is strentghening theirs a lot more colder cloud tops out their and some hint of banding,but its not moving much.


I don't have a lot of vis images to work with here...but there appears to be a weak LLC located b/w Cuba and the Bahamas. The low level clouds located off the north coast of cuba are moving east....but again...I've only got three frames. Should be a little more clear in another hour or so.
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#1589 Postby boca » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:38 am

Anyone notice that convective band like arm feature developing between two convective blobs just north of the island chain in the SE bahamas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#1590 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:42 am

boca, yes I see what you are talking about, this thing is organizing and it's in 85-90F water temps with little shear.
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#1591 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:47 am

This is going to be all about timing here.It looks like it is wraping in the dry air in around it to the north of it.
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#1592 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:51 am

23/1145 UTC 21.3N 74.1W T1.0/1.0 10 -- Atlantic Ocean
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BREAKING NEWS

#1593 Postby wxwatcher91 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:53 am

23/1145 UTC 21.3N 74.1W T1.0/1.0 10
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Re: BREAKING NEWS

#1594 Postby Marilyn » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:54 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:23/1145 UTC 21.3N 74.1W T1.0/1.0 10
What does these numbers mean ??
Thks :)
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#1595 Postby artist » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:55 am

Image
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#1596 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:56 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Above is a chart of all the T Numbers.1.0 means sat estimate of 25kts.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS

#1597 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:56 am

Marilyn wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:23/1145 UTC 21.3N 74.1W T1.0/1.0 10
What does these numbers mean ??
Thks :)


25kt winds
Last edited by Thunder44 on Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1598 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:57 am

interesting split on these model runs...
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#1599 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Aug 23, 2005 8:00 am

boca_chris wrote:interesting split on these model runs...


True. Dont worry too much about the BAM models(shallow, medium, or deep) as they dont resolve mid-latitude weather very well. Just look closer to the global models.

<RICKY>
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Rainband

#1600 Postby Rainband » Tue Aug 23, 2005 8:00 am

Looks like SE florida into the SE GOM then the panhandle..if you split the difference. Could be an intersting week-weekend.
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