Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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superfly

#281 Postby superfly » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:26 am

Don't write 97L off yet. Could develop into Katrina sometime in the next day or maybe even Lee if the Cuba system develops.
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#282 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:42 am

Convection has increased significantly since yesterday, but it looks like this morning the broad LLC is running ahead of the convection, becoming exposed again. Take a close-up loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html
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#283 Postby nequad » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:33 am

Wow...just woke up this morning and I see the increased convection and organization of 97. Looks very close to being a TC to me. Perhaps we'll have a TD by this evening.
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BREAKING NEWS

#284 Postby wxwatcher91 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:47 am

23/1145 UTC 17.1N 36.2W T1.5/1.5 97
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#285 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Aug 23, 2005 8:04 am

its gonna be interesting which one develops into a named storm first. Will it be 97L or the system in the Bahamas? I would think the advantage would go to 97L but who knows.

<RICKY>
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#286 Postby wxwatcher91 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 8:15 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:its gonna be interesting which one develops into a named storm first. Will it be 97L or the system in the Bahamas? I would think the advantage would go to 97L but who knows.

<RICKY>


well based on the latest T#s, 97L is ahead...
97L is at 1.5
10L is at 1.0

10L has the advantage of warmer waters...
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#287 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:02 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050823 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050823 1200 050824 0000 050824 1200 050825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 36.3W 17.3N 38.3W 17.5N 40.2W 18.0N 41.7W
BAMM 17.0N 36.3W 17.7N 38.6W 18.3N 40.7W 19.0N 42.3W
A98E 17.0N 36.3W 17.6N 38.8W 17.9N 41.3W 18.3N 43.5W
LBAR 17.0N 36.3W 17.5N 38.7W 18.2N 41.2W 18.8N 43.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050825 1200 050826 1200 050827 1200 050828 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 42.9W 21.0N 45.1W 24.9N 47.6W 29.2N 47.7W
BAMM 19.6N 43.7W 21.9N 46.2W 25.6N 48.6W 29.5N 48.0W
A98E 18.9N 45.3W 20.8N 48.1W 24.1N 49.9W 29.5N 49.3W
LBAR 19.2N 45.7W 21.6N 49.7W 25.2N 51.9W 31.5N 50.7W
SHIP 41KTS 52KTS 60KTS 65KTS
DSHP 41KTS 52KTS 60KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 36.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 33.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 31.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#288 Postby dwg71 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:05 am

Taking the path that its on, it seems to be running right into the large brown dry air mass. I can't see one taking this track surviving.
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#289 Postby TS Zack » Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:15 am

One is closer to home also. Plus, it has Reconn going in this afternoon.
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#290 Postby bvigal » Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:30 am

I'm not sure what to think about this one, except it gets a brownie point for persistance. Lots of uncertainty, even in the short run. Take a look at the last 24 hrs of surface charts...

Image
Image
Image
Image
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#291 Postby wxwatcher91 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:43 am

looks very similar to Irene... north of all the warm water... dry air interferring as well...

if 97L doesnt recurve then it has a good chance of developing however if it recurves into the weakness in the ridge that the models show then we can wave it goodbye...

I think we could MAYBE see a TD this evening out of it just going by the 12z T#s but otherwise I think it wont get a name for at least the next 36 hours...
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#292 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:48 am

tropics are heating up. Alot of systems have been able to fight off unfavorable conditions such as Irene and former TD10 so this one could fight it off as well.

<RICKY>
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#293 Postby dwg71 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:12 am

I had to scroll down quite a bit to find this thread, has everyone written this off as a threat to CONUS?
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#294 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:17 am

dwg71 wrote:I had to scroll down quite a bit to find this thread, has everyone written this off as a threat to CONUS?


I dont know if people have written it off but it looks very unlikely at this point.

<RICKY>
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chadtm80

#295 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:24 am

We just have something brewing close to "home".. Trust me.. 97L will get peoples attention again soon enough
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#296 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2005 1:23 pm

23/1745 UTC 16.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 97 -- Atlantic Ocean

Almost a depression however still the low center is ahead of convection exposed.
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#297 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 23, 2005 1:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:23/1745 UTC 16.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 97 -- Atlantic Ocean


Almost a depression however still the low center is ahead of convection exposed.


The sfc feature looks better than that of TD12...at least the circulation. Just needs some convection closer to the center.
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#298 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:26 pm

23/1745 UTC 16.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 97
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#299 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:22 pm

97L re-firing. No time to discuss with TD12 on top of us...
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#300 Postby LAwxrgal » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:27 pm

We could have TD 13 soon...

Also, what, if any, would be its prospects of getting across?
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