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storms in NC wrote:Question here. Is there any way is can be picked up by the front that is come off the coast now? I haven't heard any one talking about it or the high ridges
Stormcenter wrote:Rainband wrote:It's possible. This is the tropics. Looks more like an eastern GOM threat at this point. As you know things change in the tropics.
Until this "whatever" is in the GOM it is no ones problem along GOM coastline. Now when and if it makes it into the GOM then it's becomes everyones problem along the GOM coastline. I would not put too much faith in the models at all this far out so to say it's an eastern GOM threat or any threat is really premature in my opinion.
MWatkins wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Rainband wrote:It's possible. This is the tropics. Looks more like an eastern GOM threat at this point. As you know things change in the tropics.
Until this "whatever" is in the GOM it is no ones problem along GOM coastline. Now when and if it makes it into the GOM then it's becomes everyones problem along the GOM coastline. I would not put too much faith in the models at all this far out so to say it's an eastern GOM threat or any threat is really premature in my opinion.
Well...I hate to say this…but this statement somewhat misses the point of a discussion board. We’re not talking about something that is a week away from the islands…this is a system that is 3 or 4 days from the eastern Gulf. Instead of taking on the clear-cut model guidance and the consensus opinion of folks who watch this all the time…rather than dismiss that idea as conjecture…why not present some analysis as to where you think this is going to go? I would be interested to know what you think of this system. I think the chances are etter of it never developing at all then not somehow getting into the SE gulf...personally.
As for CONU…it is the consensus guidance from the GFDL…UKMET…GFS and NOGAPS models. It is the best performing track they have and often times the NHC forecast track will be right on top of that track…
MW
my concern regarding this system is its slow movement over abnormally high SSTs with progressively improving atmospheric conditions for development. IF that ULL gets out of the way and ridging can set in, could we see explosive development, or is everybody just seeing slow development for now?
Well said Mike.MWatkins wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Rainband wrote:It's possible. This is the tropics. Looks more like an eastern GOM threat at this point. As you know things change in the tropics.
Until this "whatever" is in the GOM it is no ones problem along GOM coastline. Now when and if it makes it into the GOM then it's becomes everyones problem along the GOM coastline. I would not put too much faith in the models at all this far out so to say it's an eastern GOM threat or any threat is really premature in my opinion.
Well...I hate to say this…but this statement somewhat misses the point of a discussion board. We’re not talking about something that is a week away from the islands…this is a system that is 3 or 4 days from the eastern Gulf. Instead of taking on the clear-cut model guidance and the consensus opinion of folks who watch this all the time…rather than dismiss that idea as conjecture…why not present some analysis as to where you think this is going to go? I would be interested to know what you think of this system. I think the chances are etter of it never developing at all then not somehow getting into the SE gulf...personally.
As for CONU…it is the consensus guidance from the GFDL…UKMET…GFS and NOGAPS models. It is the best performing track they have and often times the NHC forecast track will be right on top of that track…
MW
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