TD 10...Back Again

[cjrciadt]

It appears that the BAMs are the only ones that have this going into the gulf???

and of course XTRP

looks like a SE/Cent Florida storm right now

Yea for me. . All the local weather outlets are telling us to watch this closely now. That pic summed it up for me.

[dwg71]

and of course XTRP

looks like a SE/Cent Florida storm right now

I would like to wait until this evening when this storm has materialized....the models do better when there is an actual storm.

We do better when we dont have an actual storm, 83 pages and I think 80 have come after recon went in a week or so ago. An actual storm may be too much for us to handle.

[WeatherEmperor]

and of course XTRP

looks like a SE/Cent Florida storm right now

I would like to wait until this evening when this storm has materialized....the models do better when there is an actual storm.

We do better when we dont have an actual storm, 83 pages and I think 80 have come after recon went in a week or so ago. An actual storm may be too much for us to handle.

lol I agree. Storm2K is gonna have some major server problems if this thing develops and does some interesting things.

<RICKY>

[wxwatcher91]

[CronkPSU]

It appears that the BAMs are the only ones that have this going into the gulf???

and of course XTRP

looks like a SE/Cent Florida storm right now

Yea for me. . All the local weather outlets are telling us to watch this closely now. That pic summed it up for me.

yep pretty much, how did you fare with Charley last year, you guys down in Kissimmee took a much harder hit than us up in Western Orange Country

[x-y-no]

Interesting ... so now the CONU and GFDI and a few others are picking up the same general idea the the Euro has been insisting on for days ...

There may be more to this than I thought.

[gatorcane]

lol I agree. Storm2K is gonna have some major server problems if this thing develops and does some interesting things.

<RICKY>

Yes, if this thing can get to hurricane strength of the SE coast of FL storm2k is going down.

[SouthFloridawx]

This thing might wrap up this afternoon.

[CronkPSU]

can some one help me out with the SHIPS forecast, I am guessing it has it as a strong Trop Storm/Minimal Cat 1 around landfall at 72 hours and then strengthening as it recurves around 120 hours?

[dwg71]

can some one help me out with the SHIPS forecast, I am guessing it has it as a strong Trop Storm/Minimal Cat 1 around landfall at 72 hours and then strengthening as it recurves around 120 hours?

I have absolutely no faith in the SHIPS forecast.

[cjrciadt]

It appears that the BAMs are the only ones that have this going into the gulf???

and of course XTRP

looks like a SE/Cent Florida storm right now

Yea for me. . All the local weather outlets are telling us to watch this closely now. That pic summed it up for me.

yep pretty much, how did you fare with Charley last year, you guys down in Kissimmee took a much harder hit than us up in Western Orange Country

Major roof damage, no power (KUA customers were some of the last to get power back two weeks later!), no cable for a week!! . Not as bad as it could have been, though Frances blew away the makeshift repairs.

[Frank P]

using the GOES vis loop there sure looks like a LLC or some kind of low level vortex forming around 22.8 and 74.9 at the moment....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[TS Zack]

Here is a better loop.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]

[Frank P]

yeah and system appears to be moving wnw as well off this sat loop...

[x-y-no]

using the GOES vis loop there sure looks like a LLC or some kind of low level vortex forming around 22.8 and 74.9 at the moment....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Yeah ... or a bit west of there. It's kind on an elongated circulation right now.

[WeatherEmperor]

Very nice loop TSZack. I can clearly see some evidence of a LLC trying to form and get its act together.

<RICKY>

[Frank P]

using the GOES vis loop there sure looks like a LLC or some kind of low level vortex forming around 22.8 and 74.9 at the moment....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Yeah ... or a bit west of there. It's kind on an elongated circulation right now.

Yeah I agree, Zacks loop shows that elongation better than the GOES...

[Air Force Met]

Here is a better loop.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]

Try the GHCC...the images are coming in every 10 minutes...plus it's zoomed in more.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[TampaFl]

Here's one for the Tampa Bay folks:

(ECMWF 0z run SLP at 5 days)



Not: I don't buy this particularly since it deepens the system as it crosses the peninsula from Ft. Pirce to Tampa.

[jasons2k]

Well, be careful this early, or you might be eating Dixiebreeze's crow buffet

Seriuosly though, I read JB's column and he said "One of the storms I am now looking at is the 1947 New Orleans storm."

I'd hardly call that a forecast at this point...

Lemme ask ya a question.

Does Bastardi (just delete the "i" at the end, that seems fair) WANT a hurricane to hit New Orleans?

Its getting really aggrivating that everyone bashes on him and says...oh, bastardi wants a cane to NO....NO he dosn't....why would you bring that up...he NEVER said anything about a landfall...just that he was looking at the 47, i believe cane....man, people...if you don't like him...don't read anything from him...thanks

Delta I think the reason people are giving JB a hard time (including myself) is how insistent he was the Dennis was going to head toward NO, and kept harping on it over and over.

Now he mentions the 47 storm which would be a disaster for NO as well. And yet there is not even a developed storm as of now.

I myself don't read him, but at the same time it is hard to ignore his thoughts when they are brought up...

OK, I have to say something about this, so here it goes:

One thing to remember about Dennis is that the UKMET was consistently showing that possibility. Granted, it was wrong (hindsight is always 20/20 isn't it?), but if I remember correctly, the model had done very well in its early track, so he continued to use it. So it's not like it was something totally out of the blue.

Also, another thing about N.O., since a hurricane would be a total disaster and it would take so long to evacuate, the earlier the warning the better. Better safe than sorry. I really don't think JB wants a storm to hit NO. In his columns, he says he has spent a lot of time down there and knows a lot of people in N.O.. He has met with a lot of the local officials so he has a first hand idea of how bad it could be. A storm heading that way with a complacent population is one of his greatest fears, not wishes. So, yes, the prospect of a storm anywhere near N.O. gets him a little nervous, and rightfully so.

One last thing I wanna point out, if you don't even read the guy's column, then don't make assumptions. There are a lot of people on this board that put words in his mouth. Almost every single critic doesn't even read his column...that's not very fair IMO. How can you, or anyone for that matter, accurately critique a commentary of his without even reading it?? Or, what you have read 90% of the time is either taken out of context or just plain wrong/misquoted?? My suggestion is that if you haven't read it, or seen the video, then reserve the cheap shots for something you've invested more time in.