TS Zack wrote:Here is a better loop.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]
Looks lop-sided but it's good enough for a TD.
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TS Zack wrote:Here is a better loop.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]
Thunder44 wrote:TS Zack wrote:Here is a better loop.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]
Looks lop-sided but it's good enough for a TD.
Air Force Met wrote:TS Zack wrote:Here is a better loop.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]
Try the GHCC...the images are coming in every 10 minutes...plus it's zoomed in more.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
jschlitz wrote:Thunder44 wrote:TS Zack wrote:Here is a better loop.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]
Looks lop-sided but it's good enough for a TD.
Looks like it's finally starting to wrap up to me...and it looks like it's moving almost due W. Not good for us GOM'ers.
tailgater wrote:jschlitz wrote:Thunder44 wrote:TS Zack wrote:Here is a better loop.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]
Looks lop-sided but it's good enough for a TD.
Looks like it's finally starting to wrap up to me...and it looks like it's moving almost due W. Not good for us GOM'ers.
don't know about direction but circ. very evident @ 22.6N/74.8W. Looks like the island to it's north is pointing at it. go to the GHCC site zoom in and speed it up a little , that a tight spiral right dere.
Air Force Met wrote:My thoughts on the system are this:
I think that once the upper low moves a little more to the west of the LLC...that it should develop. Looking at the vis loops this morning, the lower level circulation encompasses a rather large area. Westerly flow around the south side is all the way down south of Cuba so it has a large circulation...even though it's broad right now. So...I give it a really good chance of being upgraded. It might not be today...simply because the NHC likes to see consistancy in a system before they upgrade it...but if the new burst of convection moves over the LLC...and the recon finds a closed low...then they may upgrade at 5PM...maybe 10...but it all depends on what it looks like at the time. If the structure remains the same as now...they won't upgrade it. I do think, however, that tomorrow is probably the day it will take off...epsecially if the upper low to the north of ex-TD10 moves to the west of it and the ridge that is currently east of the upper low moves over ex-TD10.
I give it a good chance of redevelopment....and never wrote it off to begin with. I told someone a few days ago that it had a chance once it was nearing the Bahamas.
tailgater wrote:jschlitz wrote:Thunder44 wrote:TS Zack wrote:Here is a better loop.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
You can clearly see the clouds on the West side of the convection rotating into the convection.[/url]
Looks lop-sided but it's good enough for a TD.
Looks like it's finally starting to wrap up to me...and it looks like it's moving almost due W. Not good for us GOM'ers.
don't know about direction but circ. very evident @ 22.6N/74.8W. Looks like the island to it's north is pointing at it. go to the GHCC site zoom in and speed it up a little , that a tight spiral right dere.
Frank P wrote:Air Force Met wrote:My thoughts on the system are this:
I think that once the upper low moves a little more to the west of the LLC...that it should develop. Looking at the vis loops this morning, the lower level circulation encompasses a rather large area. Westerly flow around the south side is all the way down south of Cuba so it has a large circulation...even though it's broad right now. So...I give it a really good chance of being upgraded. It might not be today...simply because the NHC likes to see consistancy in a system before they upgrade it...but if the new burst of convection moves over the LLC...and the recon finds a closed low...then they may upgrade at 5PM...maybe 10...but it all depends on what it looks like at the time. If the structure remains the same as now...they won't upgrade it. I do think, however, that tomorrow is probably the day it will take off...epsecially if the upper low to the north of ex-TD10 moves to the west of it and the ridge that is currently east of the upper low moves over ex-TD10.
I give it a good chance of redevelopment....and never wrote it off to begin with. I told someone a few days ago that it had a chance once it was nearing the Bahamas.
Yeah, I remembered that as a bunch of us got blasted for even commenting on this system a couple of days ago, and that by doing so we were a discredit to meteorology.... crow buffet time perhaps for some... hehe....
Thunder44 wrote:Frank P wrote:Air Force Met wrote:My thoughts on the system are this:
I think that once the upper low moves a little more to the west of the LLC...that it should develop. Looking at the vis loops this morning, the lower level circulation encompasses a rather large area. Westerly flow around the south side is all the way down south of Cuba so it has a large circulation...even though it's broad right now. So...I give it a really good chance of being upgraded. It might not be today...simply because the NHC likes to see consistancy in a system before they upgrade it...but if the new burst of convection moves over the LLC...and the recon finds a closed low...then they may upgrade at 5PM...maybe 10...but it all depends on what it looks like at the time. If the structure remains the same as now...they won't upgrade it. I do think, however, that tomorrow is probably the day it will take off...epsecially if the upper low to the north of ex-TD10 moves to the west of it and the ridge that is currently east of the upper low moves over ex-TD10.
I give it a good chance of redevelopment....and never wrote it off to begin with. I told someone a few days ago that it had a chance once it was nearing the Bahamas.
Yeah, I remembered that as a bunch of us got blasted for even commenting on this system a couple of days ago, and that by doing so we were a discredit to meteorology.... crow buffet time perhaps for some... hehe....
Well it doesn't look like TPC will be classifying this again as TD 10. 99L is up and TPC no longer mentions this as being possibly TD 10 remmants in the 11:30 TWO.
Frank P wrote:
Yeah, I remembered that as a bunch of us got blasted for even commenting on this system a couple of days ago, and that by doing so we were a discredit to meteorology.... crow buffet time perhaps for some... hehe....
x-y-no wrote:Frank P wrote:
Yeah, I remembered that as a bunch of us got blasted for even commenting on this system a couple of days ago, and that by doing so we were a discredit to meteorology.... crow buffet time perhaps for some... hehe....
Well my recollection is different. Very few here were dismissing any prospect of redevelopment. What was getting blasted were claims of ongoing rapid intensification, claims that it was looking better than it ever had, etc. You're not claiming those things were true a couple of days ago, are you?
Absolutely not... if fact I only posted what was developing at the time... you can go back and read them... I never claimed any specific forecast but that this was a system that needed to be monitored and watched ... that's all I ever forecast ... period... some were saying that we shouldn't even be monitoring the system, that it was dead and done for, those are the ones I'm referring to...
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