TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[sma10]

for goodness sakes don't tell boca chris yet,,,he may start to

Well who is the one that called all of this to happen several days ago????

You're a meteorological God.

[WeatherEmperor]

so wait the 12Z GFS no longer shows a FL threat anymore?

<RICKY>

Well, it never intensifies it much, but then again intensity is hardly the forte of any of the globals.

As for track, it takes it directly over SFL, stalls it there for a day, and then moves north up the peninsula and emerges somewhere north of Canaveral.

So I'd say that's still a Florida threat.

oh ok sorry for the confusion. thanx for settin me straight

<RICKY>

[mvtrucking]

Boy, it really doesn't look to be moving much at all right now. It's like it's kinda sitting there getting itself together for recon.

Check out the water vapor loop... shows the system attm moving slowly off to the wnw....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like it is moving directly for the straits.

[dwg71]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I've held off a bit on 99L to make any type of forecast/prediction. I believe recon will find a depression and it will be classified as such at 5:00PM. As far as track, short term (up to 72 hours), I see it heading WNW (290 - 305) towards the SW Bahamas (Andros Island). It will be named Katrina and the make landfall WPB as a TS. It will dissappate over land and the remnants will emerge in gulf near Tampa, but not reorganize. Intensity - I will say it will top off near 50mph.

[WeatherEmperor]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I've held off a bit on 99L to make any type of forecast/prediction. I believe recon will find a depression and it will be classified as such at 5:00PM. As far as track, short term (up to 72 hours), I see it heading WNW (290 - 305) towards the SW Bahamas (Andros Island). It will be named Katrina and the make landfall WPB as a TS. It will dissappate over land and the remnants will emerge in gulf near Tampa, but not reorganize. Intensity - I will say it will top off near 50mph.

interesting landfall prediction.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

Is this flare-up formation?

[chadtm80]

Remember the models have not gotten very good data inputed for the system yet.. Garbage in = Garbage out

[Sanibel]

Surface center: 21N-75.5W


Direction: 270-75*


Looks to be headed into Cuba to crash if it doesn't pull-up.


Already TD and forming fast.


- Sanibel

[vacanechaser]

for goodness sakes don't tell boca chris yet,,,he may start to

Well who is the one that called all of this to happen several days ago????

You're a meteorological God.

I take back any hateful aweful things I said about, wait minute, did I say that????


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[WeatherEmperor]

Surface center: 21N-75.5W


Direction: 270-75*


Looks to be headed into Cuba to crash if it doesn't pull-up.


Already TD and forming fast.


- Sanibel

pull up Maverick! pull up

<RICKY>

[artist]

Sanibel - believe the center is further east of that.

[gatorcane]

pull up Maverick! pull up

<RICKY>

[sma10]

I realize that this is going to be an unpopular opinion, but does anyone else think that even though the system may be a depression, it seems quite a bit disorganized? It just doesn't have the look of something that is going to rapidly intensify. Not yet, at least.

[dwg71]

I realize that this is going to be an unpopular opinion, but does anyone else think that even though the system is a depression, it seems quite a bit disorganized? It just doesn't have the look of something that is going to rapidly intensify. Not yet, at least.

opinions are always popular, its facts that are unpopular

[Sanibel]

Just the opposite Sma10. A small, rapidly spinning LLC is moving west into Cuba from 21N-75.5 or so right now. Cuban observations near that area should be recording a west wind...

[gkrangers]

I realize that this is going to be an unpopular opinion, but does anyone else think that even though the system is a depression, it seems quite a bit disorganized? It just doesn't have the look of something that is going to rapidly intensify. Not yet, at least.

It is disorganized....which is why I'm not sure if it'll actually get depression status.

I don't think it has a dominant circulation yet...

A smaller one died out earlier...and there is one at about 23.9N and 75W right now, but it seems to be moving quickly WNW.

So I don't know if it warrants TD status yet, due to its disorganization. Maybe by tonight it'll be more of a "system".

[gkrangers]

Just the opposite Sma10. A small, rapidly spinning LLC is moving west into Cuba from 21N-75.5 or so right now. Cuban observations near that area should be recording a west wind...

Not sure what you are seeing, but recon is investigating (i think) the LLC at about 24N/75W.

[sma10]

Just the opposite Sma10. A small, rapidly spinning LLC is moving west into Cuba from 21N-75.5 or so right now. Cuban observations near that area should be recording a west wind...

We can agree to disagree then Sanibel. You see a system spinning up rapidly, I see a disorganized system. Time will tell. I'm not saying that it won't organize in time, I just don't see it happening right now.

[x-y-no]

Surface center: 21N-75.5W


Direction: 270-75*


Looks to be headed into Cuba to crash if it doesn't pull-up.


Already TD and forming fast.


- Sanibel

I think you're a good 1.6 to 1.8 degrees too far south. Th center I was tracking earlier is under convection now, but was located not far SW of Long Island.

[sma10]

12Z Models are as clear as mud.....

Canadian.....TX/LA border
GFS.......East coast of FL then north
UKMet......Heading into the Bay of Campeche(!)
Euro.......Pensacola (for a nice change of pace)