TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gatorcane]

Surface center: 21N-75.5W


Direction: 270-75*


Looks to be headed into Cuba to crash if it doesn't pull-up.


Already TD and forming fast.


- Sanibel

it will not head into Cuba...WNW skirting the coast.

[jasons2k]

Surface center: 21N-75.5W


Direction: 270-75*


Looks to be headed into Cuba to crash if it doesn't pull-up.


Already TD and forming fast.


- Sanibel

I think you're a good 1.6 to 1.8 degrees too far south. Th center I was tracking earlier is under convection now, but was located not far SW of Long Island.

Agree, I posted a few pages back where I thought I saw it, it was visible earlier but convection tops have since obscured it...

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The shear from the ULL over the southeastern U.S., Florida, the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean and eastward almost to the Bahamas remains. The latest shear information shows 20KT to 30KT shear over the northern Bahamas stretching westward across southern Florida into the west-central Gulf of Mexico and southward through the Florida Keys to near Cuba. All this shear lies prettymuch in the path of EX-TD 10 (now INVEST.99L). Here it is:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

The system lies between a pocket of 20KT shear to it's east-northeast and a pocket of 10KT shear to it's south-southwest near the Dominican Republic (or western area of Hispaniola on the north side). The real bulk of strong shear is ahead of the system. Unless the ULL shifts and allows a lower-shear environment to enter EX-TD 10 (INVEST.99L) will probably have a hard time maintaing itself. Also notice the pocket of 30KT shear in the eastern Gulf of Mexico which is surrounded by 20KT shear. This could weaken the system as well if it tracks through the central or southern Florida Keys into the Gulf of Mexico, despite what many people have called "boiling SSTs". Although that is a valid point, all factors - including shear and current patterns for the past several days up to the present and future predicted patterns - need to be considered. The system is now approaching the bulk of the shear in the area - now will be the test to intensification.

[Air Force Met]

Surface center: 21N-75.5W


Direction: 270-75*


Looks to be headed into Cuba to crash if it doesn't pull-up.


Already TD and forming fast.


- Sanibel

I have to disagree with that placement for a couple of reasons.

1) Recon is reporting a south-southwest wind 90 miles north of that location...which would mean wind is blowing out of the LLC...which can't happen.

2) The flow to the west of that location is clearly to the ENE. Again...that is not a sign of a LLC in that area.

The feature you see at 21/75.5 is a mid-level vortmax. It can't be in the lower levels due to the fact the low clouds are moving ENE and NE...to the west...south...and east of that location...and at a pretty good clip.

It's closer to 22.8/75.5 and it's very braod...with another low level vortmax to the north of that location (but embedded in the easterly flow).

[Huckster]

Just the opposite Sma10. A small, rapidly spinning LLC is moving west into Cuba from 21N-75.5 or so right now. Cuban observations near that area should be recording a west wind...

Not sure what you are seeing, but recon is investigating (i think) the LLC at about 24N/75W.

I've been looking at the visible floater and the "create-your-own" from the Interactive site. It looks like there's a broad low pressure system here with a possible center on the north and also farther south. There's a heck of a lot of impressive westerly and southwesterly inflow coming into the southern part of this disturbance, and a good bit of convection there also. I'll guess both of these "centers" sort of die out and a new dominant compromise center forms somewhere in between.

[jasons2k]

Surface center: 21N-75.5W


Direction: 270-75*


Looks to be headed into Cuba to crash if it doesn't pull-up.


Already TD and forming fast.


- Sanibel

I have to disagree with that placement for a couple of reasons.

1) Recon is reporting a south-southwest wind 90 miles north of that location...which would mean wind is blowing out of the LLC...which can't happen.

2) The flow to the west of that location is clearly to the ENE. Again...that is not a sign of a LLC in that area.

The feature you see at 21/75.5 is a mid-level vortmax. It can't be in the lower levels due to the fact the low clouds are moving ENE and NE...to the west...south...and east of that location...and at a pretty good clip.

It's closer to 22.8/75.5 and it's very braod...with another low level vortmax to the north of that location (but embedded in the easterly flow).

Looks like that was indeed the LLC on the loops this AM:

Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 10:56 am

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you zoom here

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

There is a very small but very clear LLC at 22.7N 75.0W

You can see the inflow of the surface clouds from way west feeding into it and wrapping.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We finally have a LLC!

[Recurve]

Well...I guess we're done here:

It's TD 12.

See:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71117

[Recurve]

I mean as far as trying to figure out whether it's a TD or not.

[cycloneye]

.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (AL122005) ON 20050823 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050823 1800 050824 0600 050824 1800 050825 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 75.2W 23.6N 76.9W 24.3N 78.6W 24.8N 80.1W
BAMM 22.9N 75.2W 23.8N 76.8W 24.6N 78.3W 25.3N 79.5W
A98E 22.9N 75.2W 23.8N 76.5W 24.7N 77.9W 25.6N 79.5W
LBAR 22.9N 75.2W 23.8N 76.7W 25.1N 78.0W 26.3N 79.2W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 57KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050825 1800 050826 1800 050827 1800 050828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.1N 81.6W 25.0N 84.0W 24.5N 86.2W 24.5N 88.2W
BAMM 25.5N 80.7W 25.5N 82.6W 25.1N 84.0W 25.2N 85.1W
A98E 26.1N 81.8W 27.4N 85.4W 27.6N 87.6W 26.1N 88.5W
LBAR 27.1N 79.5W 28.5N 78.8W 29.9N 78.5W 32.1N 77.2W
SHIP 66KTS 78KTS 81KTS 82KTS
DSHP 53KTS 59KTS 63KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.9N LONCUR = 75.2W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 73.9W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 73.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Models for TD12.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im not sure if it means much but the BAM's show more of a SoFLa threat then before.

<RICKY>

[TS Zack]

Now other model guidance...

All global models take it into the Gulf with a track across South Fl. The EURO has shifted West/The NOGAPS is the same/ New GFDL is further South and is South of Mobile Bay heading NW/CANADIAN is the left outlier brings it to Tx/La Border....

Watch this one closely, everyone in the Gulf of Mexico!

[WeatherEmperor]

we should worry about the Bahamas and FL first before it can get into the Gulf based on current data.

<RICKY>

[clfenwi]

Now other model guidance...

All global models take it into the Gulf with a track across South Fl. The EURO has shifted West/The NOGAPS is the same/ New GFDL is further South and is South of Mobile Bay heading NW/CANADIAN is the left outlier brings it to Tx/La Border....

Watch this one closely, everyone in the Gulf of Mexico!

GFS does not bring it into the Gulf of Mexico...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[PTrackerLA]

It's going to be a tense week for the gulf coast for sure. Don't make too many weekend plans just yet if you live along the gulf coast .

[Rainband]

Now other model guidance...

All global models take it into the Gulf with a track across South Fl. The EURO has shifted West/The NOGAPS is the same/ New GFDL is further South and is South of Mobile Bay heading NW/CANADIAN is the left outlier brings it to Tx/La Border....

Watch this one closely, everyone in the Gulf of Mexico!

Thought you said the models were having trouble with this. Why the renewed confidence in the shift west??

[gatorcane]

we should worry about the Bahamas and FL first before it can get into the Gulf based on current data

Hey you are starting to sound like me ;...yes, the GOM should start to really worry about this. I think that perhaps the ULL to the north of it is going to keep it from getting very strong quickly...but down the road could be very problematic for the GOM.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Is this florida concern at all? Even if it hits south florida, I will probably get wind and rain. What are your guys thoughts?

Matt

[WeatherEmperor]

we should worry about the Bahamas and FL first before it can get into the Gulf based on current data

Hey you are starting to sound like me ;...yes, the GOM should start to really worry about this. I think that perhaps the ULL to the north of it is going to keep it from getting very strong quickly...but down the road could be very problematic for the GOM.

nope sorry. i sound nothing like you.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

Is this florida concern at all? Even if it hits south florida, I will probably get wind and rain. What are your guys thoughts?

Matt

I wouldn't get that complacent with a system in the position that it is in....all of the pro mets for local TV stations in S. Florida were forecasting a measly wave to pass south of FL just last night and now look what has happened in about 12 hours...what's the next 24-48 hours going to bring?

[gatorcane]

nope sorry. i sound nothing like you.

lol