Steering and Anti-Cyclone over LA?

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Is that a strong High over the LA-MS area? That is a pretty strong anti-cyclonic circulation. However, I don't understand the convection associated with it. I thought High supress instead of enhance showers. Last but not least, the prognosis for it's affect on steering patterns with 99L?

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, I've been wondering about that too. But if an anticyclone sits over a TC it doesn't suppress its convection, in fact, it helps it strengthen.

Perhaps the experts can chime in?

[deltadog03]

there is a dominant UPPER level high...another words upper-level divergence. it will help to vent or pull air out away from the center

[HouTXmetro]

there is a dominant UPPER level high...another words upper-level divergence. it will help to vent or pull air out away from the center

In other words, is it a current or future player in the eventual track of 99L? If so how?

[clfenwi]

there is a dominant UPPER level high...another words upper-level divergence. it will help to vent or pull air out away from the center

In other words, is it a current or future player in the eventual track of 99L? If so how?

Depends on where the center of the storm is relative to the circulation and how developed the storm becomes. The 12Z models had two schools of thought, one being that the storm runs north, east of the edge of the circulation. In that scenario, the ul high is not a player.

However, if in the near term, the storm were to continue west, it would be either south of or in the anti-cyclonic circulation, which would dictate a continued westward movement (assuming the ul high stays in its current position).

[HouTXmetro]

there is a dominant UPPER level high...another words upper-level divergence. it will help to vent or pull air out away from the center

In other words, is it a current or future player in the eventual track of 99L? If so how?

Depends on where the center of the storm is relative to the circulation and how developed the storm becomes. The 12Z models had two schools of thought, one being that the storm runs north, east of the edge of the circulation. In that scenario, the ul high is not a player.

However, if in the near term, the storm were to continue west, it would be either south of or in the anti-cyclonic circulation, which would dictate a continued westward movement (assuming the ul high stays in its current position).

Thanks, that is exactly what I needed to know.

[N2Storms]

IMO this is going to be a La/Upper Tx coast threat and I think it has a very good chance to become a significant storm if for you folks over in that "neck of the woods"...

[deltadog03]

there is a dominant UPPER level high...another words upper-level divergence. it will help to vent or pull air out away from the center

In other words, is it a current or future player in the eventual track of 99L? If so how?

Depends on where the center of the storm is relative to the circulation and how developed the storm becomes. The 12Z models had two schools of thought, one being that the storm runs north, east of the edge of the circulation. In that scenario, the ul high is not a player.

However, if in the near term, the storm were to continue west, it would be either south of or in the anti-cyclonic circulation, which would dictate a continued westward movement (assuming the ul high stays in its current position).

perfectly put....check out the latest GEM..(canadian) it shows a TX/LA border landfall...**NOT saying its gonna happen**...but, it looked like the ukmet has shifted south too....over into the south/central gulf...

[HouTXmetro]

there is a dominant UPPER level high...another words upper-level divergence. it will help to vent or pull air out away from the center

In other words, is it a current or future player in the eventual track of 99L? If so how?

Depends on where the center of the storm is relative to the circulation and how developed the storm becomes. The 12Z models had two schools of thought, one being that the storm runs north, east of the edge of the circulation. In that scenario, the ul high is not a player.

However, if in the near term, the storm were to continue west, it would be either south of or in the anti-cyclonic circulation, which would dictate a continued westward movement (assuming the ul high stays in its current position).

perfectly put....check out the latest GEM..(canadian) it shows a TX/LA border landfall...**NOT saying its gonna happen**...but, it looked like the ukmet has shifted south too....over into the south/central gulf...

Ummm... do you have the link to those models?

[jasons2k]

there is a dominant UPPER level high...another words upper-level divergence. it will help to vent or pull air out away from the center

In other words, is it a current or future player in the eventual track of 99L? If so how?

Depends on where the center of the storm is relative to the circulation and how developed the storm becomes. The 12Z models had two schools of thought, one being that the storm runs north, east of the edge of the circulation. In that scenario, the ul high is not a player.

However, if in the near term, the storm were to continue west, it would be either south of or in the anti-cyclonic circulation, which would dictate a continued westward movement (assuming the ul high stays in its current position).

perfectly put....check out the latest GEM..(canadian) it shows a TX/LA border landfall...**NOT saying its gonna happen**...but, it looked like the ukmet has shifted south too....over into the south/central gulf...

Yep, I'm still very concerned with this one..........

[deltadog03]

here is the GEM...animation

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... 12_....jpg

[clfenwi]

Link to the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

[WeatherEmperor]

lol this thing hasnt even finished impacting the Bahamas much less FL and we are already talking about GOM impacts? wow.

<RICKY>