Special Statement=TD12 FORMS

[gkrangers]

050
WONT41 KNHC 231837
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH.
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AT 5 PM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[deltadog03]

here WE GO AGAIN!!!!!

[Deenac813]

TD12, not TD 10 And we are off!!

[HouTXmetro]

Models Please!!!!!!

I'll take them in skantily claded bikinis.

[chris_fit]

Models Please!!!!!!

I'll take them in skantily claded bikinis.

Haha!!



As for ex TD10, new TD12....

[chadtm80]

Latest model runs are on the storm2k homepage courtesy of skeetobite.. But I would expect them to change once real data is put in

[Brent]

Models Please!!!!!!

I'll take them in skantily claded bikinis.

Me too.

[clfenwi]

Latest model runs are on the storm2k homepage courtesy of skeetobite.. But I would expect them to change once real data is put in

Yeah, I was reading up on the Beta and Advection (BAM) models last night and they are wicked dependent on a good initialized position. Their short term forecasts are horrible when they get intialized wrong (although strangely enough, they do manage to recover in the later periods).

My write-up should be up in a day or so... I've already posted ones on CLIPER: http://hurricaneguide.beplaced.com/CLIPER.html and NHC98: http://hurricaneguide.beplaced.com/NHC98.html

[Trader Ron]

Models Please!!!!!!

I'll take them in skantily claded bikinis.

Me too.

Brent how old are you?

[Brent]

Models Please!!!!!!

I'll take them in skantily claded bikinis.

Me too.

Brent how old are you?

17.

[jujubean]

local mets say this is going to pass over later in the week but a question please....does anyone know how much this is expected to strengthen or is it just going to be a lot of rain?all comments welcome.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personally, I think that if the ULL over the southeastern U.S. does not shift the system might not be able to develop much due to 20KT to 30KT shear. Actually, it would be nice to get a good rain event... it would be kind of cozy just to be indoors and listen to the heavy rain and some gusty winds, as long as it is not so strong at landfall.

[LAwxrgal]

I say our little lull is OVER... LOL

[Sanibel]

Big goof-up today. The LLC is usually at the tail bottom of the convection. My near-Cuba LLC was only a vortex. It appears the LLC is forming further north nearer to the middle of the wave.

This makes a world of difference as far as track...