Hurricane Watch Possible For Florida Tonight

vacanechaser · #1 Postby **vacanechaser** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:28 pm

On the phone with Mark and he just read that a tropical storm watch or hurricane watch may be possible for south Florida later tonight...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com

#2 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:29 pm

....and where did he read this ?

#3 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:31 pm

I could see a TS Watch but not a Hurricane watch tonight, not enough organization or banding yet to see rapid intensification IMO.

Scorpion · #4 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:33 pm

Wow, things sure getting exciting quick. If this forms into a TS soon and is in a favorable environment this will catch ALOT of people off guard.

chadtm80 · #5 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:34 pm

Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast/Advisory Number 1

Statement as of 21:00Z on August 23, 2005

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
tropical warning Storm Warning for the central and northwestern
Bahamas.

A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of
southern Florida later tonight

jamima · #6 Postby **jamima** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:34 pm

I'm sorry but whos Mark?

chadtm80 · #7 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:38 pm

http://www.hurricanetrack.com Thats Mark 8-)

#8 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:39 pm

Wow, things sure getting exciting quick. If this forms into a TS soon and is in a favorable environment this will catch ALOT of people off guard.

I was trying to warn people days ago about this scenario...hence my post.

#9 Postby **Cookiely** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:45 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Wow, things sure getting exciting quick. If this forms into a TS soon and is in a favorable environment this will catch ALOT of people off guard.

I was trying to warn people days ago about this scenario...hence my post.

You have done your best to warn them of what might happen. Luckily this thing is crawling along so there will be time for people to prepare if they haven't already.

vacanechaser · #10 Postby **vacanechaser** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:45 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...TWELFTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. THIS INCLUDES CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...
RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR...NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS...
ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 75.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#11 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:06 pm

I cannot see a Hurricane Watch tonight. From where the NHC and Recon placed the center there is NO convection currently over it and there are multiple vortices with the one to the NE near Rum Cay looking like it might take over as convection seems to be rotating.

This storm has alot of organizing to do to be anywhere close to hurricane strength tonight and I just don't see it.

truballer#1 · #12 Postby **truballer#1** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:12 pm

IMO, there isn't going to be a hurricane watch tonight but Im pretty sure that there is going to be tropical storm watch for southern florida around 8pm or 11pm.

x-y-no · #13 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:15 pm

I would be inclined to agree that a hurricane is unlikely, but the NWHCC forcast Derek posted, as well as the fact that NHC takes this to 60 knots at landfall, gives me pause.

#14 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:19 pm

x-y-no wrote:I would be inclined to agree that a hurricane is unlikely, but the NWHCC forcast Derek posted, as well as the fact that NHC takes this to 60 knots at landfall, gives me pause.

Agree 1000% with you. I will not say it is going to be impossible for this to reach hurricane strenght. I just cannot do that even more so with the fact that it is gonna be moving slow between Wednesday and Thursday per the NHC forecast track and also gonna be moving over waters near 31C which is around 88-89F.

<RICKY>

vacanechaser · #15 Postby **vacanechaser** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:27 pm

Dont"t shoot the messanger!!! Thats just what they were saying.. However, It is very possible it could happen.. It only takes a few hours for a world of difference.

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Website · #16 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:28 pm

Well... it doesn't have to be a hurricane for there to be a hurricane watch. I've seen numerous strong tropical storms have hurricane watches issued... if there's even a slight chance of it reaching hurricane status, they likely will.

#17 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:35 pm

If it gets to 60mph, they should issue hurricane watches because look at Cindy....tropical storm, no hurricane watches, but Category 1 type damage? That took A LOT of people off guard.

#18 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:52 pm

A hurricane watch would not be bad if they issued it. It only means that hurricane conditions are "possible" not likely.

<RICKY>

#19 Postby **JPmia** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:55 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:A hurricane watch would not be bad if they issued it. It only means that hurricane conditions are "possible" not likely.

<RICKY>

LOL, and the rest of South FL goes crazy....X-Y-NO that made me pause too...in fact some temperatures in the waters off our coast are in the 88-91 degree range....plenty of warm water. Hmm.

#20 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:57 pm

JPmia wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:A hurricane watch would not be bad if they issued it. It only means that hurricane conditions are "possible" not likely.

<RICKY>

LOL, and the rest of South FL goes crazy....X-Y-NO that made me pause too...in fact some temperatures in the waters off our coast are in the 88-91 degree range....plenty of warm water. Hmm.

aaah so what do you think that means?

<RICKY>

Hurricane Watch Possible For Florida Tonight

Hurricane Watch Possible For Florida Tonight

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