TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[skysummit]

So which one is the supposed center? This is all vortices that I see. Are one of these supposed to be the real thing?

[Sanibel]

If it doesn't curve it is looking close to Key Largo in track. If it does curve east coast Florida...

[Sanibel]

Within the three middle dots. No mistakes this time...

[nequad]

IMO...I believe we might see a stall in the vicinity of the Northern Bahamas...followed by a crawl northward in time.

We shall see....

Not a forecast...just my humble opinion after digesting all the model data, current motion, and the all important center location.

[jasons2k]

One thing to rememeber is that the first advisory and first "real" model suite rarely verify

[dwg71]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I've held off a bit on 99L to make any type of forecast/prediction. I believe recon will find a depression and it will be classified as such at 5:00PM. As far as track, short term (up to 72 hours), I see it heading WNW (290 - 305) towards the SW Bahamas (Andros Island). It will be named Katrina and the make landfall WPB as a TS. It will dissappate over land and the remnants will emerge in gulf near Tampa, but not reorganize. Intensity - I will say it will top off near 50mph.

interesting landfall prediction.

<RICKY>

Landfall call seems to be in line with initial NHC track. Intensity looks fairly close as well. My exit strategy is different, I have it further north.

[dwg71]

double post.

[dwg71]

Looking at sats, I think the center is reforming north of Long Island. Convection to the SW is being shot out from center and is tied in with Showers over Cuba that occur at this time each day. As sun goes down, I think convection will diminish to the south and refire near the north.

[jasons2k]

So which one is the supposed center? This is all vortices that I see. Are one of these supposed to be the real thing?

I know I'll be called crazy given the NHC advisory, but the center to me appears to be the larger circle, closer to Cuba. It's been the most consistent circulation all day. The LLC was clearly just E of here this AM, it's where the NHC intially put it (before the adv.), and the outflow seems to be spreading from this, indicating mid-upper rotation here as well. I would not be surprised if we get one of those "center has relocated" lines coming from NHC at some point....altho I don't think it ever was to the N...

[jrod]

It realy looks like a ragged system right now. If it weren't for the pressure falls, 30C+ water temps, low shear, a well defined broad circulation I would think nothing of it. I think the safest bet on this one is wait for a well defined center of circualtion to happen before trying to pinpoint where it will make landfall. Regardless South and Central Florida will get some squally weather to say the least in the days ahead.

[superfly]

I see a distinct low level circulation in the NE convection and a broader one in between the 2 areas of convection.

[Javlin]

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#atlantic

Go to the near bottom of the page has some extended outlooks on the shear(72hrs).It looks pretty favorable in the future.She looks like she should have little problem in the GOM.

[jasons2k]

FWIW, here is my current thinking of the center and track:

[Amanzi]

Ok, please could someone in the know tell me why on earth the GFS is going in the opposite direction to all the other models, most of them have a bend towards the west on approach to S FL??? Does it have something to do with a weakness in the ridge that the GFS is reading and the others are not?

[JPmia]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Hard to argue with this

[jasons2k]

Hey gang,

I'm not trying to pick on anyone in particular, but the following threads:

"TD #12 looks to Impact S. Fl"
"TD #12 and New Orleans"
"Who is S. Fl is starting to get nervous?"
"Hurricane watch possible for S. Florida"
"Maybe we should expect...."
"HPC This PM and TD#12"
"How Strong can TD #12 get?"
"Why TD#12 and not 10?"

Could ALL be posted in THIS thread!!!

It makes it MUCH easier to discuss this storm without a new thread for each little new thought or discussion. I'm about to get carpal tunnel having to jump from thread to thread. Just my 2 cents.

[jasons2k]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Hard to argue with this

Can you please clarify what you mean? thx.

[dwg71]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Hard to argue with this

The only arguement that could be made is the initialization. I think the center is north of there on the other side of that island.

[Brent]

Hey gang,

I'm not trying to pick on anyone in particular, but the following threads:

"TD #12 looks to Impact S. Fl"
"TD #12 and New Orleans"
"Who is S. Fl is starting to get nervous?"
"Hurricane watch possible for S. Florida"
"Maybe we should expect...."
"HPC This PM and TD#12"
"How Strong can TD #12 get?"
"Why TD#12 and not 10?"

Could ALL be posted in THIS thread!!!

It makes it MUCH easier to discuss this storm without a new thread for each little new thought or discussion. I'm about to get carpal tunnel having to jump from thread to thread. Just my 2 cents.

Welcome to the board during a Gulf threat...

It used to be a LOT worse... trust me.

[Eyes2theSkies]

I also think the center that will win out will be the one north of long island there seems to be a pretty good size burst of convection there. I also believe the convection near cuba will start to die out this evening. In my humble opinion I think the NHC will adjust the track a little further north. I think the FSU super ensamble has the best solution right now. Just an amateurs opinion.