Bob Breck

[gk1]

Just watched Bob Breck and he indicated that Katrina may go up the East Coast of Florida. I am sure that is what his Viper Model is indicating!!

[gkrangers]

I wonder if that VIPIR thing is based on the GFS.

[jabber]

I wonder if that VIPIR thing is based on the GFS.

Thats a good bet....

[jasons2k]

Did we really need a whole new thread for this? There is already a TD#12 comments thread - and in fact - even another (uneccesary) "TD#12 and New Orleans" thread to boot.

[Stormcenter]

Didn't that Viper model do a horrible job with Cindy?

[TS Zack]

I think he makes it up and takes it where he wants it to go.

[WeatherEmperor]

Who's Bob Breck?

<RICKY>

[dhweather]

The Fox 8 OCM in New Orleans

I used to be a fan of his, but he has become quite irresponsible
in his statements in the last few years.

[Jevo]

And apparently Bob Breck has not imputed any synoptic or model data into his Viper model

From the 5pm discussion

BY 36-48 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

[HurryKane]

The Fox 8 OCM in New Orleans

I used to be a fan of his, but he has become quite irresponsible
in his statements in the last few years.

Joo got some email, dawg.

[Steve]

Someone explained Viper a while back. It takes radar soundings (?) maybe and model inputs and is supposed to be very expensive. Jason Kelly in Panama City Beach (a great met and member of this board and CFHC) also has Viper. As for Cindy, it did pretty well. It was the first model that showed the LA Delta/East of LA/MS border dual landfalls.

As far as his projection though, I don't know. Bob Breck and Joe Bastardi are heavyweights. Even though Joe only favors that solution (and granted, I didn't watch Bob to get a take on how convinced I thought he was of the eastern solution), what these guys have to say does bear some weight whether or not we agree or disagree with what they say.

Steve

[WeatherEmperor]

The Fox 8 OCM in New Orleans

I used to be a fan of his, but he has become quite irresponsible
in his statements in the last few years.

Joo got some email, dawg.

you really are the sassiest nerd around

<RICKY>

[dhweather]

The Fox 8 OCM in New Orleans

I used to be a fan of his, but he has become quite irresponsible
in his statements in the last few years.

Joo got some email, dawg.

D00D! I do!

[HurryKane]

The Fox 8 OCM in New Orleans

I used to be a fan of his, but he has become quite irresponsible
in his statements in the last few years.

Joo got some email, dawg.

you really are the sassiest nerd around

<RICKY>

Currently I am the nerdiest nerd around.

Dear Bob Breck: please be right (with apologies to east Florida). Signed, Skeered.

[MWatkins]

Actually...the 18Z GFS shows TD12 stalling over SE FL for 3 or 4 days before heading back to the north.

Remember...the GFS did the same thing with Frances last season and had a horrible northward bias in this type of situation.

Although the GFDL also had this bias last season...it so far is not biting on this scenario...the 18Z guidance (just out) is very similar to the previous run with a system making an approach and landfall on the SE FL coast in 66 hours.

I think Tom Terry went bananas with this model last year and it bit him in the you know where a couple of times.

I sure wish TV mets werent out there leaning on one model that "noone" else has to forecast the weather. If the model was that good...the NHC would have it.

MW

[GTStorm]

Dear Bob Breck: please be right (with apologies to east Florida). Signed, Skeered.

Sorry, not gonna happen, for the following highly scientific reasoning: that would put it coming towards Savannah which I am now convinced, as evidenced by the daily dissipation of all thunderstorm activity as it approaches my house, is the absolute Dull Weather Capital of the east coast. Who knows something about sprinkler systems?

[HollynLA]

The vipir model is only accurate at about 48-72 hours out and it useless any further than that. I take it with a grain of salt. The vipir also had Dennis coming strait up Terrebone parish 3 days before landfall. Slightly off, huh?

[cajungal]

The vipir model is only accurate at about 48-72 hours out and it useless any further than that. I take it with a grain of salt. The vipir also had Dennis coming strait up Terrebone parish 3 days before landfall. Slightly off, huh?

Yes, I remember him saying that clearly. But, Vipir is highly unreliable that far out and TD 12 is still weak at this point. I just hope the Florida panhandle avoids anymore activity. Just returned from my vacation to Destin. Destin was okay for the most part. But, from Pensacola to Navarre, esp. Navarre, it was heartbreaking. Piles of debris all over the road and tarps on almost every other roof. It almost brought me to tears.

[deltadog03]

i don't know much about the vipir thing...but, this seems to me a clear met who is in love with the gfs...and the gfs seems to be lost...just like the nam

[LAwxrgal]

GFS=clueless, out to lunch...