TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

I still think the NHC and recon center, over/near Long Island is the dominant center.

[WeatherEmperor]

I still think the NHC and recon center, over/near Long Island is the dominant center.

I agree. The recon knows a load better about the center then we do with our computers and sat loops.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

I just looked at the loop and I'm not sure myself. It could be that the Cuban portion is a lee-side of Cuba vortex. The Long Island center does look stronger.

It should resolve in a few hours and the Cuban feature will blow-off...

[Rainband]

I just looked at the loop and I'm not sure myself. It could be that the Cuban portion is a lee-side of Cuba vortex. The Long Island center does look stronger.

It should resolve in a few hours and the Cuban feature will blow-off...

Like I said when it gets dark

[mahicks]

Well, well...I'm gone for 15 hours at work and look what happens...The Storm that couldn't.....did with a little help from another wave...

Anyways...I knew something was brewing, lately theres only been 10 people logged in...When I signed in today..I found about 30..

I guess the whole page of new threads that start with TD12 in the title means were no longer streamlining new posts and making it easier to follow??????

[jasons2k]

TD12 Dynamics


Something is happening right now that really needs discussion.


The tight center they intialized could be a strong bursting vortex related to the tight and compact ULL ingrained into the north section of the depression. (I'm pretty sure it is)

The real center is possibly coming together closer to Cuba near 22N-76.5W

Convection is bursting near northern center, and dying to the south. The south area that you are referring to is moving towards the WSW, which is contrary to models,climo, and NHC. The other is moving WNW in line with NHC, models and climo...

Just how I see it...

I don't think the center to the south (the true center IMO) is moving WSW. More like W or WNW.

The convection to the north is a temporary burst IMO.

Models mean nothing, they are initialized on where the NHC placed the center. I still think it will be "relocated" to the S/SW. Very common for poorly-organized and new systems.

But hey, I could be eating crow by this time tomorrow.

The LLC was visible to the south earlier.

Zoom in and loop this infrared image. Where does the rotation look like on this?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[jasons2k]

Well, well...I'm gone for 15 hours at work and look what happens...The Storm that couldn't.....did with a little help from another wave...

Anyways...I knew something was brewing, lately theres only been 10 people logged in...When I signed in today..I found about 30..

I guess the whole page of new threads that start with TD12 in the title means were no longer streamlining new posts and making it easier to follow??????

Yeah, see my post on page 9 on that one. Very irritating. I think I need go get dinner now and take a break, I don't want to sound like a troll.

[WeatherEmperor]

TD12 Dynamics


Something is happening right now that really needs discussion.


The tight center they intialized could be a strong bursting vortex related to the tight and compact ULL ingrained into the north section of the depression. (I'm pretty sure it is)

The real center is possibly coming together closer to Cuba near 22N-76.5W

Convection is bursting near northern center, and dying to the south. The south area that you are referring to is moving towards the WSW, which is contrary to models,climo, and NHC. The other is moving WNW in line with NHC, models and climo...

Just how I see it...

I don't think the center to the south (the true center IMO) is moving WSW. More like W or WNW.

The convection to the north is a temporary burst IMO.

Models mean nothing, they are initialized on where the NHC placed the center. I still think it will be "relocated" to the S/SW. Very common for poorly-organized and new systems.

But hey, I could be eating crow by this time tomorrow.

The LLC was visible to the south earlier.

Zoom in and loop this infrared image. Where does the rotation look like on this?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

yeah you just might be eating that crow you mentioned tomorrow

<RICKY>

[clfenwi]

If I had to provide a position estimate att I would say 23.2° North, 75.1° West , which is pretty much the center of Long Island, Bahamas.

[Rainband]

Fried or sauteed

[WeatherEmperor]

Fried or sauteed

Fried

<RICKY>

[HurryKane]

Well, well...I'm gone for 15 hours at work and look what happens...The Storm that couldn't.....did with a little help from another wave...

You ain't kidding. I was in a meeting upstate today, no internet access, no internet access...finally get some wireless and BLAMMO there's 12. I pulled up some images and the guy next to me says, "You still want to go home now?"

Eesh.

[storms in NC]

Airforce What you have to say? Or did I miss it. I would like to see what you have to say. I think you are good at what you do.

[mahicks]

Well, well...I'm gone for 15 hours at work and look what happens...The Storm that couldn't.....did with a little help from another wave...

You ain't kidding. I was in a meeting upstate today, no internet access, no internet access...finally get some wireless and BLAMMO there's 12. I pulled up some images and the guy next to me says, "You still want to go home now?"

Eesh.

Hurry....LOL...thats hillarious!

What is everyones opinion on the current track consensus??
I know that the first runs are always waaaayyyyyy off.

But what r most thinkin?

[gkrangers]

23/2345 UTC 23.2N 75.1W T2.0/2.0 12

[clfenwi]

Whoa, I think the SAB guy got lazy and cribbed from me

[gkrangers]

Whoa, I think the SAB guy got lazy and cribbed from me

Good call.

[Recurve]

What the HECK is that punching into the main convection blob from the north in the last few sat frames? I used the GOES image viewer with color infrared, and it looks like a boot just kicked the convection, either dry air or a center wrapping? Don't know, never seen such a sudden opening of convection like that. Anyone else? Gotta check vapor loop to see if that's another low or what...

[storms in NC]

Well, well...I'm gone for 15 hours at work and look what happens...The Storm that couldn't.....did with a little help from another wave...

You ain't kidding. I was in a meeting upstate today, no internet access, no internet access...finally get some wireless and BLAMMO there's 12. I pulled up some images and the guy next to me says, "You still want to go home now?"

Eesh.

Hurry....LOL...thats hillarious!

What is everyones opinion on the current track consensus??
I know that the first runs are always waaaayyyyyy off.

But what r most thinkin?

you right. If you look there is 2 ways that TD12 can be steered. Just the way I look at it. I try and keep a open mine.Just my two cents


[img][/img]

[Sanibel]

Instinct tells me the 23N center is less likely to rapidly intensify. That was more likely with a southern center coming up into the straits at an angle. Looks like the Cuba swirl was actually the vortex...