#12/Katrina forecast #1: Rain and winds for Central/South Fl

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #12
NJN WEATHER CENTER
740 PM TUES AUG 23RD 2005

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Depression #12 formed earlier today and should become Tropical Storm Katrina by sometime on Wednesday. She is currently quite disorganized, but may try to quickly strengthen over the open waters of the far Western Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Warnings are currently out for the entire Bahamian Island Chain. These warnings will most likely be extended further west to Central or South Florida by sometime on Wednesday or even very early Thursday.

The cone of uncertainty currently stretches from as far south as the Atlantic and the GOM, to as far north as beyond the Florida Peninsula.

My current forecast will be a bit north of the NHC's. This storm with it's wild movement or erratic, could have it going a little further north of the Miami/Ft Lauderdale area. I will make my 1st forecast of a landfall somewhere between the area of Stuart to possibly as far north as the Space Coast.

My intensity forecast sees a strong Tropical Storm knocking on Central and South Florida's doors by sometime Thursday evening.

Rains and some gusty winds will be possible, as always a landfalling tropical system could also bring tornadic activity.

After Katrina exits the peninsula, she's expected to blossom in the warm waters of the GOM. She may end up making a 2nd landfall around New Orleans. But it's way too early to start calling 2nd landfalls.

Heres' my experimental 5 day forecast on #12/Katrina

Tonight: Becoming Katrina. Small but developing TS. Max Winds: 40 mph
Wednesday: Trekking through the Bahamas. Watching carefully for intensification. Max Winds: 50 mph
Thursday: Strengthening during the day. Making landfall, possibly as north as Indian River County by evening. Max Winds: 65 mph
Friday: Losing punch as she crosses the peninsula's south end. Max Winds: 45 mph
Saturday: Back into the GOM. Max Winds: 65 mph

Track and intensity forecasts subject to errors, some by as much as 100's of miles.

[Acral]

Interesting, and from what I have been putting together in my uniquely amatuerish way, look dead on, but if we were to discuss a second landfall, I would put it more towards Mississippi.

[Josephine96]

Way too early to start thinking of a 2nd landfall lol.. But ya never know.. Good thing there aint no fronts coming lol..

I'd then be worried about a double hit lol

[Acral]

True .. very true.

[Acral]

True .. very true.

[Acral]

True .. very true.

[Acral]

True .. very true.

[Josephine96]

LOL.. I take it you agree with me huh

[amawea]

Man Acral, no wonder you have 42 post since July 25th.