Hurricane Watch Possible For Florida Tonight

[dhweather]

Well... it doesn't have to be a hurricane for there to be a hurricane watch. I've seen numerous strong tropical storms have hurricane watches issued... if there's even a slight chance of it reaching hurricane status, they likely will.

I point back to TS Cindy. The NHC refused to put up a hurricane watch
with a 70MPH TS approaching LA/MS. Most folks around here believe it
was a cat 1. I think it's the right thing to do - issue a hurricane watch if
the storm is going to be close to hurricane strength.

[WeatherEmperor]

Well... it doesn't have to be a hurricane for there to be a hurricane watch. I've seen numerous strong tropical storms have hurricane watches issued... if there's even a slight chance of it reaching hurricane status, they likely will.

I point back to TS Cindy. The NHC refused to put up a hurricane watch
with a 70MPH TS approaching LA/MS. Most folks around here believe it
was a cat 1. I think it's the right thing to do - issue a hurricane watch if
the storm is going to be close to hurricane strength.

Yes I agree. Put it up to be safe especially if it is a very strong tropical storm.

<RICKY>

[Jevo]

Dont"t shoot the messanger!!! Thats just what they were saying.. However, It is very possible it could happen.. It only takes a few hours for a world of difference.


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse you boys coming down to see Watkins and I for the initial landfall? If so ill keep the beverages on ice

[floridahurricaneguy]

Hurricane Watch sounds good for current path. I think Tampa will feel some conditions espically if its strong decent TS. I bet eventually Tampa maybe included in at at least TS watch? Sound unreasonable?

Matt

[fci]

Well... it doesn't have to be a hurricane for there to be a hurricane watch. I've seen numerous strong tropical storms have hurricane watches issued... if there's even a slight chance of it reaching hurricane status, they likely will.

I point back to TS Cindy. The NHC refused to put up a hurricane watch
with a 70MPH TS approaching LA/MS. Most folks around here believe it
was a cat 1. I think it's the right thing to do - issue a hurricane watch if
the storm is going to be close to hurricane strength.

I may get chastised for saying this, but; with the NHC down here in South Florida and the HUGE population centers, I think there will be an inclination to err on the side of posting a Hurricane Watch if this is Katrina and the "potential" exists for intensification to Cat 1 before landfall.

Politically, it would be horrendous if a watch were not posted with potential for rapid intensification present and if it were to occur. Imagine the outcry if the "home" of the NHC were hit by a Hurricane when a Watch was never issued!

If it is Katrina and the real possibility exists for intensification to Hurricane strength before landfall; it would be shocking for them NOT to issue a
Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch at the same time and then upgrade it if intensification does occur.

This is NOT meant to be critical of the NHC and please do not construe it as such!!!

[sponger]

I agree fci, I think a watch at 8:00 tommorow is likely.

Kudos to boca chris for calling it right. All you who flamed him should be ashamed imho

[truballer#1]

also agree very much.

[HeatherAKC]

Imagine the outcry if the "home" of the NHC were hit by a Hurricane when a Watch was never issued!

I drive the turnpike everyday to and from work past the NHC. That's when I know when to put up my shutters. NHC boards up, so do I. Convienient, actually.

[TheShrimper]

Dont look for a hurricane watch to be issued that soon for the SE Fl. Coast especially after last year and also with the track uncertianty depicted on the cone. There is no definitive area to focus on at this point in time. The Keys got screwed 4 times last year with evacs and some during big weekends, and corresponding with many local down there, you got the sense they were pretty pissed off. I was in Homestead for Jeanne and the whole town was shut down for no reason. It's gonna be a while, perhaps not untill the 11AM or 5PM advisory tommorrow, at the earliest.

[TheShrimper]

They rarely issue watches or warnings at an intermediate advisory.

[Recurve]

I think the NHC takes human psychology into account. They know that "hurricane" is all some people will listen to. Even if they issued a "tropical storm certainty" advisory, without a hurricane watch to back it up, people may not pay attention.

There was a situation with Floyd in '87 where we went from TS watch to hurricane warning without a watch first; that spooked some people, even though that Floyd was barely a Cat 1 when it made landfall in the Keys.

OTOH, a hurricane watch triggers all kinds of preparedness things; I'll have to move my sailboat from the marina if a hurricane watch is issued, but probably not if it's a tropical storm warning alone.

[gatorcane]

I don't expect a hurricane watch by 11pm tonight for S. Florida but maybe by tomorrow by 8am if it bombs out tonight.

[fci]

Dont look for a hurricane watch to be issued that soon for the SE Fl. Coast especially after last year and also with the track uncertianty depicted on the cone. There is no definitive area to focus on at this point in time. The Keys got screwed 4 times last year with evacs and some during big weekends, and corresponding with many local down there, you got the sense they were pretty pissed off. I was in Homestead for Jeanne and the whole town was shut down for no reason. It's gonna be a while, perhaps not untill the 11AM or 5PM advisory tommorrow, at the earliest.

I agree.
Of course it would have to have been upgraded by then.

8:00 AM is unlikely to me but they could put in a teaser that watches will be issued in the next advisory for a portion of the coast. I'd opt for 5:00 PM if I were betting....

[Patrick99]

You guys think this thing could become a hurricane? Man, I don't know. Yes, there's warm water, but warm water isn't everything. The environment just doesn't look so ideal for any rapid deepening - that ULL is weakening and filling, but it's still there.

[gatorcane]

hurricane watch will be put into effect tomorrow IMHO.

[jkt21787]

hurricane watch will be put into effect tomorrow IMHO.

It will need to at least get to a moderate TS before issuing a Hurricane watch. Not sure that will happen, wait until overnight trends before seeing that.

[DAVE440]

Its official. My desktop wx alert went off a while ago. TS watch in effect for S FLA.

Just looked at infrared sat. Actually a lot less convection than earlier today. Doesnt look as organized.

[jkt21787]

Its official. My desktop wx alert went off a while ago. TS watch in effect for S FLA.

Just looked at infrared sat. Actually a lot less convection than earlier today. Doesnt look as organized.

Difference now is that the convection thats there now is close or over the center, all that stuff earlier today was well removed from it.

[gkrangers]

Its official. My desktop wx alert went off a while ago. TS watch in effect for S FLA.

Just looked at infrared sat. Actually a lot less convection than earlier today. Doesnt look as organized.

Its actually probably more organized now. A lot of the daytime convection was from convection initiated with cuba.

The convection tonight seems to be better associated with the center....maybe not much better organized, but I don't think any worse.

[THead]

You guys think this thing could become a hurricane? Man, I don't know. Yes, there's warm water, but warm water isn't everything. The environment just doesn't look so ideal for any rapid deepening - that ULL is weakening and filling, but it's still there.

I'm not as scientific as alot of people here are, but one thing I have observed, is intensity forecasting is extremely hit and miss, mostly miss. Seems there have been so many examples of storms showing this recently, even though the track forecasts have been MUCH better. Not knocking the NHC at all, just recognizing how difficult it seems to forecast intensity.

Couple of things would concern me about this storm, one is the slow speed, for obvious reasons. Of course this could also keep it from strengthening too I suppose, kind of like Frances did over the Bahamas last year.

Don't under-estimate this storm either. I've been here long enough to know if you get hit by the 'eye' of even 'just' a strong tropical storm, it's no picnic.

Stay prepared, and safe everyone.